All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Sale of Foskor Stake Still on Table

South Africa’s state-owned Industrial Development Corp. (IDC), which has a majority stake in the country’s phosphate and granular fertilizer producer Foskor, still plans on “selling down” its interest in the company, according to IDC CEO Tshokolo Petrus (TP) Nchocho in a Sept. 26 interview with the Daily Maverick.

An earlier attempt to sell a major stake in the company to an international investor collapsed due to market uncertainty in mid-2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nchocho expects to revisit a sale within the next 6-12 months and this may include the placement of the company on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

The CEO told the paper the company was best in the hands of an industrial parent and that it requires capital on an ongoing basis like any capital-intensive business. A positive is that Foskor posted a R2.8 billion ($148.5 million) profit for the year ending March 31, 2023, reportedly its first profit since 2012.

Maire, Macquarie Ink MOU for Energy Projects

Maire SpA’s project development subsidiary, MET Development, has inked a Memorandum of Understanding with Macquarie Capital, part of the Sydney-based Macquarie Group, to set up a new platform aimed at developing, constructing, and operating energy transition projects in Italy and Europe, including green or low carbon fertilizer projects.

The two parties have agreed to work together to launch the platform, which is intended to act through a newly incorporated company controlled by Macquarie Capital with 80% of the shareholding, according to a joint press release from MET, Maire, and Macquarie.

The platform is expected to focus on key sectors ranging from the chemical recycling of waste to produce sustainable fuels and hydrogen, to all green or low carbon hydrogen and CO2 capture solutions, including fertilizers.

Projects are likely to be based on a non-recourse capital structure, relying upon secured long-term supply contracts and offtake agreements, with Maire to act as technology provider and E&C contractor, leveraging Macquarie Capital’s expertise in developing, financing, and managing infrastructure and energy assets, the two companies said.

Nepal, Malaysian Firm Partner on Fertilizer Plant

Nepal’s Investment Board and Malaysia-based renewable energy company reNikola Holdings Sdn Bhd on Sept. 28 signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to prepare a detailed feasibility study for setting up a green ammonia and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) fertilizer plant in Nepal, the Kathmandu Post reported.

The location of the proposed project is Anbu Khaireni in the Tanahun district of central Nepal. Production capacities of 95,600 mt/y of green ammonia and 286,975 mt/y of green CAN are proposed, according to the report. The estimated cost of the project is put at $260 million.

Green Ammonia Project Eyed in Northern Australia

Perth-based Allied Green Ammonia Pty Ltd. and Spanish global engineering company Técnicas Reunidas SA have signed a Project Development Agreement (PDA) to initiate the first phases of a green hydrogen and green ammonia production facility on the Gove Peninsula in the Northern Territory of Australia.

Allied Green said the Basic Engineering Design (BED) and Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) are to start shortly for the proposed plant, which is planned to produce 165,000 mt/y of green hydrogen which will be used to produce 912,000 mt of green ammonia annually.

The Australian company put the investment required for the project at an estimated $8.5 billion. Negotiations are currently in progress with various entities, industrial companies, and investment funds, Allied Green said, including with the Northern Territory’s northeast Arnhem Land’s Gumatj indigenous people.

The company recently signed an MOU with Gumatj Corporation Ltd. “to move towards an agreement in developing the green hydrogen and green ammonia production facility near the township of Nhulunbuy on the Gove Peninsula.”

If the negotiations are successful and financial closure reached, Técnicas Reunidas will start the next phases of detailed engineering, procurement, and construction management. Allied Green said the project will provide more than 2,000 direct and indirect jobs during construction and some 500 direct and indirect jobs once operational.

Ammonia

US Gulf/Tampa:

The Tampa ammonia price for October was settled at $575/mt CFR, $185/mt above September’s $390/mt CFR. An increase had been expected, fueled by recent hikes in the NOLA barge market, Gulf vessel business, and inland terminal prices.

The NOLA barge market for ammonia was quoted at $522-$526/st FOB for the latest business, up from the prior $500/st FOB level. The Gulf vessel market jumped to $580/mt CFR for recent transactions, while truck tons out of Gulf production points reportedly firmed to $550/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices continued to climb, with reports of new producer offers jumping to $725/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana during the week, up from last week’s $650-$660/st FOB range. The increase was fueled by news of the October Tampa price surging to $575/mt CFR, up from September’s $390/mt CFR contract.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia firmed to $700-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt based on new producer postings in the region, up from last week’s $650-$675/st FOB range, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Missouri.

California:

Ammonia prices in California were slated to move to $740/st DEL on Oct. 1, up from the prior $580/st level. Aqua ammonia postings were also strengthening, to $200/st FOB Stockton and $210/st FOB Sycamore, up from $159-$169/st FOB.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia prices jumped to $750-$775/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest for limited tons, well above the prior $600/st FOB level, with the high confirmed at Ritzville, Wash., for October trucks. Rail-DEL offers were even higher at a reported $1,000-$1,100/st range, but no actual business was confirmed at those levels.

Aqua ammonia prices were quoted at $190/st FOB in the region, up from the previous $155/st FOB level.

Western Canada:

The latest ammonia offers in Western Canada were quoted at C$1,200/mt FOB and C$1,295/mt DEL for October-December tons, up sharply from earlier offers at C$900/mt FOB and C$1,000/mt DEL.

Northwest Europe:  

Sources said the latest Tampa price of $575/mt CFR, a reported deal out of Algeria at $650/mt FOB, and a sale from the Arab Gulf at $550/mt FOB should put the Northwest European price just under $700/mt CFR. That price is not being discussed in the area, however, nor is it expected to be.

The current price of natural gas puts the production cost just under $500/mt ex-plant, European sources noted. At this level, the Northwest European price would translate to an estimated $550-$555/mt CFR, though the lack of any spot business in the area makes nailing down an exact price difficult. For now, sources said traders are able to talk about any price they like, but the lack of potential deals makes the discussion purely academic.

The gap in the price, based on the Tampa price and the ex-plant price, could be an incentive for European producers to step up production. Even if gas prices move up, the difference between imported and domestically produced material is enough to allow for sales to occur without producers taking a loss.

Middle East: 

Rumors of a SABIC sale at $550/mt FOB have circulated widely enough that the entire market has signed on to this new price level, sources said. The move came as AOA in Algeria promoted reports of a deal at $650/mt and the Tampa price jumped to $575/mt CFR. No details were available on either the SABIC or AOA deals, but traders have taken these as the new price levels for ammonia.

Ma’aden ammonia production remains stunted by an ongoing plant closure. There was no word on when the facility will be up and running again, and players do not expect to see product from the plant anytime soon. To back up their thinking, sources noted that Ma’aden released two vessels from its lineup that are normally used to carry its product.

Exports of ammonia from Iran totaled 392,000 mt in January-August, Trade Data Monitor reported, up about 20% from the year-ago 326,000 mt. August exports were 40,000 mt, down marginally from the 45,000 mt shipped in August 2022. India was Iran’s largest buyer, taking 37,000 mt for the month.

India: 

Rumors are circulating that the imported ammonia price could hit $600-$700/mt CFR, based on unconfirmed reports that small and desperate buyers are looking for product. Sources said, however, that once the price hits $600/mt CFR, demand will most likely drop as buyers push back on the price increase.

Without firm confirmation of any new deals, sources said the last-done spot price into India of $510/mt CFR still holds, although this level is now unrealistic considering the updated prices seen in Tampa, the Arab Gulf, and North Africa. The bulk of ammonia imported to India is acquired under long-term contracts at sharp discounts from the spot market. Sources said only a few smaller buyers play in the spot market, and mostly only on an as-needed basis.

Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (MCF) shut its ammonia and urea production for a four-week maintenance turnaround. While the company described the closure as routine, the move took some in the industry by surprise, sources said.

India imported 1.5 million mt of ammonia in January-July, according to Trade Data Monitor, a25% increase from 1.2 million mt reported one year earlier. July imports stood at 183,000 mt, rising 29% from 142,000 mt in July 2022. Saudi Arabia led suppliers with 93,000 mt, followed by Oman and Malaysia with 19,000 mt each.

Southeast Asia:        

The regional market remains slack, and sources reported a continued lack of strong demand from Taiwan and South Korea. The market’s softness could encourage some Arab Gulf suppliers to shift their product to the European market. For now, the main focus of buyers seems to be on calculating their 2024 needs and preparing for talks with suppliers.

Urea

US Gulf:

The NOLA urea market was quoted at $370-$420/st FOB for confirmed trades during the week, down from last week’s $385-$435/st FOB, with limited prompt September business reported at the upper end of the range.

October barges were reported in a wide $370-$405/st FOB range for the week, with the low reported for full October and the high for first-half October business. Further out, sources said the market dropped to $360-$390/st FOB for November physical barge trades.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea remained at $450-$470/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Illinois. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged in the $455-$460/st FOB range during the week, down from $465-$470/st FOB the week before.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea pricing was unchanged at $450-$470/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high in Iowa.

California:

Granular urea remained at $550-$600/st FOB Stockton, with prilled urea priced at the $620/st level FOB San Diego. Rail-DEL pricing was reported at the $510/st level or higher in the state.

Pacific Northwest:

Urea slipped to $495-$500/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, down from $530-$540/st FOB at last report, with the low confirmed at Rivergate, Ore. The latest rail-DEL offers fell in the $515-$558/st range in the region, depending on location, down from the prior $540-$570/st DEL range.

Western Canada:

Urea pricing in Western Canada was reported at C$740/mt FOB and C$765-$785/mt DEL in late September, down from the prior C$755/mt FOB level.

India: 

Following a flurry of talk suggesting a tender was about to be called, industry watchers settled down to a view that a new tender call will most likely come late next week, with a closing date of Oct. 15-18.

Even though India needs more urea in the pipeline, the delay in calling the tender made sense, sources said. Not all of the paperwork in the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) tender has been completed, and traders said the buyer wanted to make sure it had firm deals in hand with the companies set to supply 525,000 mt before another tender is announced. The big fear seemed to be that without having contracts in place, a trader could withdraw from the hand-shake agreement in order to offer the same tons at a higher level in the next tender.

Prior to the closing of the September RCF urea tender, sources had estimated that India needed 3-3.5 million mt to successfully close out the year. The hopes of meeting that goal were dashed when RCF was only able to secure 525,000 mt instead of the desired 1.5 million mt. The import deficit prompted speculation about another tender being called almost immediately after the conclusion of the RCF tender.

Sources said the next tender will most likely land in the $420-$430s/mt CFR, which is more in line with the majority of offers from the previous tender. Sourcing will most likely rely on the Arab Gulf, with some material coming out of Nigeria and North Africa. No Chinese tons are expected to be offered, as the Chinese government is encouraging producers to focus on the domestic market.

MCF shut its ammonia and urea production for a routine maintenance turnaround, and the company said it should be back in operation by the end of October. While MCF called the closure “routine,” international traders said many were caught by surprise. The reduction of the plant’s urea output comes at a time when India is still short of the product it needs for the rest of the year.

The Indian government reported August urea sales at some of the highest levels seen in a long time, according to media reports. Buyers purchased an estimated 4.9 million mt during the month, against 4.1 million mt bought in August 2022. Domestic production for the month was put at 2.8 million mt, up from 2.5 million mt in July.

Urea imports fell 42% in January-July, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 3.3 million mt from 5.8 million mt in the prior year. July imports stood at 447,000 mt, off 61% from the 1.1 million mt received in July 2022. Oman sent 164,000 mt, the United Arab Emirates added 118,000 mt, and Russia shipped 45,000 mt. Local media reported August imports at 262,000 mt.

These import numbers do not include the 1.7 million mt awarded in the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender, nor the 525,000 mt from the RCF tender. The deadline for shipping product under the IPL tender was Sept. 26. Product must ship by Nov. 26 for the recent RCF tender.

Black Sea:     

Prilled urea shipping from the Black Sea was steady at $340-$360/mt FOB.

Indonesia:     

PT Pupuk Indonesia Holding Co. closed a tender on Sept. 29 offering 8,000-40,000 mt of granular urea and 20,000 mt of prilled urea. Initial reports showed granular bids down and prilled prices up from the Sept. 19 tender.

While all of the numbers from the tender were not available as Green Markets went to press, sources said at least one bid came in at $405/mt FOB for the full 40,000 mt of granular product, off from the $415/mt FOB paid by Aditya Birla in the earlier tender for only 6,000 mt of the 40,000 mt offered.

Bids for the prilled urea came in the upper-$390s/mt FOB, above the sub-$390/mt FOB bids submitted in the last tender. Pupuk scrapped the previous prilled tender rather than accept the low bid.

The bid prices could put Indonesian urea in play for the upcoming Indian tender, and both allotments are slated for October shipment under the existing export permits issued by the government. Sources said Pupuk is evaluating the bids and may make awards next week.

Middle East: 

Producers quietly finished up the last of the loadings from the IPL tender to meet the Sept. 26 shipping deadline and are now assembling the paperwork for tons to be shipped under the RCF tender. Any discussion of new pricing levels is being done quietly between producers and traders in preparation for the next Indian tender.

Offers into a recent Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corp. (EABC) tender showed much higher pricing ideas than are expected for India. The tender, which closed on Sept. 14, called for four lots of 50,000 mt each to be shipped in September and October. The September lots were offered at $428-$455/mt FOB from various sources including the Arab Gulf, while the October lots were priced at $480-$495/mt FOB.

Even without awards being issued in the EABC/Ethiopia tender, sources said the pricing indicates where producers think the market should be. These levels, however, will not be workable into India, one source noted. If the next Indian tender comes in at $420-$430/mt CFR, it would show a netback to the Arab Gulf of $405-$415/mt FOB against the current $380-$385/mt FOB, based on the most recent tender.

MOPCO sold two cargoes out of Egypt to different traders for October shipment, sources said. The first lot was sold at $420/mt FOB for 6,000 mt. The second lot of 8,000 mt went for $425/mt FOB.

China:

Activity in China wound down this week as the country prepared for its Mid-Autumn Festival, Golden Week holiday, and National Day celebrations. Most operations are expected to be shut down or have reduced output through Oct. 8. The lack of any new spot business left the price at $385-$390/mt FOB, set by the previous Indian tender.

The last of the IPL tons were loaded to meet the Sept. 26 deadline. Sources said those lots will most likely be the last of any large cargoes coming out of China. With the government pushing producers to focus on the domestic market, only small cargoes, mostly shipped in containers, are expected to be allowed for export throughout the fourth quarter.

Brazil:

Brazil urea import prices fell to $390-$410/mt CFR. Players cited limited trading volumes, as most sellers have pulled out of the market in anticipation of a new Indian tender, an expected increase in future demand, and an absence of large volumes supplied from China. Most of the week’s transactions reportedly involved material of North African origin.

Low regional demand for urea saw Rondonopolis prices soften to $525-$545/mt FOB ex-warehouse, below the prior $535-$545/mt, as farmers focus on 2023/24 soybean sowing over the corn safrinha season. The low side of the range was associated with product of Russian origin.

UAN

US Gulf:

The NOLA UAN market firmed to $255-$270/st ($7.97-$8.44/unit) FOB in the wake of tight supply and higher ammonia values, up from last week’s $250-$260/st FOB range. Sources said most tonnage is committed into January, with expectations that some 1Q 2024 offers may hit the market after TFI’s World Conference in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 2-3.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 terminal prices were reported at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for December-January tons, with the latest UAN-28 offers FOB Cincinnati confirmed at $260-$274/st ($9.29-$9.79/unit) and as high as $276-$281/st ($9.86-$10.04/unit) FOB for spring prepay offers.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 prices for December-January tons were quoted at $295-$310/st ($9.22-$9.69/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

California:

UAN-32 pricing in California was pegged at $330-$340/st ($10.31-$10.63/unit) FOB terminals, with the low confirmed at Stockton. Rail-DEL offers in Northern California were quoted at the $340/st ($10.63/unit) level on a spot basis.

Pacific Northwest:

The UAN-32 market firmed to $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB Kennewick, Wash., up $30/st from last report. Rail-DEL pricing was pegged at the $343-$350/st ($10.72-$10.94/unit) level in Washington, above the prior $318-$330/st ($9.94-10.31/unit) DEL range.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 pricing in Western Canada firmed to C$480/mt (C$17.14/unit) DEL, up from the previous C$425-$435/mt (C$15.18-$15.54/unit) DEL range.

Ammonium Sulfate

US Gulf:

The latest indications for new NOLA ammonium sulfate barge business settled at the $270/st FOB level in late September, sources said, though no new trades were reported to test the market. Recent postings from Interoceanic (IOC) include NOLA granular ammonium sulfate at $295/st FOB for September-October shipment and $305/st FOB for November-December.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market remained at $300-$335/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high reflecting IOC’s latest postings FOB Illinois and Ohio river terminals. The Cincinnati marker was pegged solidly at the $320/st FOB level for the last offers.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market firmed to $295-$310/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in the wake of higher postings from IOC and AdvanSix, with the low at St. Louis and the high reported out of spot Iowa shipping points.

California:

Ammonium sulfate pricing in California was unchanged at $320-$330/st FOB and $350/st DEL for the latest offers, with the low reported at Lathrop, Woodland, and Richvale.

Pacific Northwest:

The ammonium sulfate market firmed to $285-$325/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and location, up from the prior $280-$300/st FOB and $290-$300/st DEL ranges.

Ammonium sulfate postings from IRM in the Pacific Northwest strengthened on Sept. 15 to $285/st FOB or DEL for WesternStandard, and $325/st FOB or DEL for WesternPremium and Tranzform.

Western Canada:

The ammonium sulfate market in Western Canada was up from last report, firming to C$475-$480/mt DEL from the prior C$445-$460/mt DEL range.

China:

Concluded business remained in the mid-$160s/mt FOB for caprolactam grade amsul during the early week, sources said. By the end of the week, however, at least one confirmed sale pushed the price into the mid-$170s/mt FOB.

One producer was reported to conclude a 10,000 mt deal at $166-$167/mt FOB for November shipment. On the heels of that trade, a 20,000 mt sale for October shipment was done in the low-$170s/mt FOB.

Sources reported tight availability due to some plants reducing output. One plant, the Dongming Risun facility, suffered an explosion in mid-September at its hydrogen peroxide unit, forcing a complete shutdown. Sources said there were no injuries, and the plant is expected to be back online by Oct. 8.

Brazil:

Imported ammonium sulfate prices slipped to $200-$220/mt CFR in Brazil, a slight decline from last week’s $205-$220/mt CFR, with sources reporting a slow market. Despite low demand for the corn safrinha, Rondonopolis prices firmed to $315-$330/mt FOB ex-warehouse on reports of limited supply, up $5/mt from the week-ago $310-$325/mt.

DAP/MAP

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP truck prices were unchanged at $540/st FOB. Offers for truck-loaded MAP were steady at $615/st FOB.

US Gulf:

Sources reported thin phosphate trading at NOLA during the week, citing concerns about low river levels and a possible early river closure. Due to the limited action, the DAP range was unchanged at $525-$545/st FOB. MAP lifted $5/mt at the top of the range, to $615-$650/st FOB from the week-ago $615-$645/st FOB.

US Exports:

Nothing new was reported on the DAP and MAP export markets, leaving prices at $570/mt FOB for the most recent business.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was reported at $580-$600/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. MAP was quoted in a broad range at $680-$710/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with Cincinnati pricing pegged in the $680-$700/st FOB range for the week.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP remained at $580-$590/st FOB in Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis. MAP pricing jumped to a broad $680-$720/st FOB in the region, with the Iowa warehouse market reported in the $700-$720/st FOB range in late September.

California:

MAP pricing firmed slightly to $750/st FOB or DEL in California, up $10/st from last report.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP remained at $730-$740/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed in Idaho.

Western Canada:

MAP pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$1,035-$1,050/mt FOB or DEL, up slightly from the previous C$1,000-$1,050/mt range.

China:

The week started with a DAP price in the low-$570s/mt FOB, based on a sale last week into the Philippines. The price remained firmly locked in that range following reports of a new sale into Pakistan at $600/mt CFR, for a netback to China of $570-$575/mt FOB.

The export sale price pushes against the much lower numbers seen in the domestic market. Sources said the estimated export price, based on the current ex-plant price, should be closer to $530/mt FOB. This gap has customs agents looking closely at how many tons of DAP they will allow to be exported in the fourth quarter. There are reports that China may allow 1 million mt of DAP to be shipped through the end of the year.

If the 1 million mt allotment goes through, sources pegged India as the main beneficiary. The large number of extra tons injected into the market could help lower prices to India, and possibly Pakistan.

India: 

No new spot DAP deals were done, leaving the price at $595/mt CFR. Until word comes from China that 1 million mt might be available for export in the fourth quarter, sources tagged $600/mt CFR as the likely price.

In anticipation of the Chinese government allowing the 1 million mt to ship, Indian buyers are already getting their bids ready at $500-$510/mt CFR. While the presence of the extra Chinese tons is expected to lower the market price, few think the drop will be as dramatic as buyers hope.

There are rumors circulating that India’s central government is reviewing the subsidy program for phosphates and potash. The change could involve a reduction of subsidy support by as much as 30%. Should such a drop be approved, demand for DAP could fall, sources said. If the policy is implemented at the same time the extra Chinese tons come available for import, however, one source said the $500/mt CFR goal might be achieved.

January-July DAP imports firmed 41% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 4 million mt from 2.6 million received during the same period of 2022. China supplied 41% of the market, sending 1.1 million mt. July imports were pegged at 889,000 mt, up significantly from 386,000 mt in July 2022.

Bangladesh:  

Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corp. (BADC) closed a tender for 40,000 mt of DAP to be received in two lots of 20,000 mt each. Rumors put the landed price at $600/mt CFR. Sources noted that Bangladesh usually pays a higher price than India and Pakistan because of its port facilities.

Brazil:

The landed price of MAP at Brazil increased to $550/mt CFR from the week-ago $530-$540/mt CFR, with players citing limited October availability.

Due to thin supply for the tail end of the 2023/24 soybean application season, available offers in Rondonopolis followed import prices higher. While some players were noted holding prices stable, others increased offers by $10/mt, lifting the market to $650-$670/mt FOB ex-warehouse.