All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

Transportation

Illinois River, Market Watch, Mississippi RIver, Ohio River, Transportation, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

Low water conditions on the Lower Mississippi River were expected to trigger a 48-hour closure at Port Allen Lock for dredging, sources said. The Corps was reportedly waiting for a dredge to become available on July 12 and expected work to begin sometime before July 20.

Transit remained unavailable at Harvey Lock due to reverse head conditions. The lock has been shut since June 15.

Work at Colorado Lock, underway since December 2022, was scheduled to conclude on July 14, ending a period of daily 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. shutdowns. Waits were noted up to 18 hours during the week.

Guidewall repairs underway at Bayou Sorrel Lock limited navigation daily between 7:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m., triggering delays up to 19.5 hours. The project is scheduled to run through March 2024.

Crane repairs forced a delay to planned work at Leland Bowman Lock, pushing the project’s start to July 17 from July 10. Navigation will be unavailable between 7:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. for approximately 14 days. Sources reported a 12-hour repair shutdown at Brazos Lock on July 13.

Port Allen Lock waits were quoted up to nine hours. Intermittent 5-14 hour delays were reported at Industrial Lock, while tows were delayed up to 12 hours at Brazos Lock. Intermittent navigation stoppages are expected at the BNSF Railroad Bridge, located at Mile 1 of the Port Allen Route, between July 17 and Aug. 14.

Mississippi River:   

Sources noted a 10% reduction in maximum drafts on tons loading at St. Louis. Barges loading at Cairo, Ill., reportedly faced 5-15% lower drafts. On the lower river, draft limits on northbound cargoes loading at NOLA were slashed by 20%, while tows moving downriver from Cairo saw barge counts reduced by 15-25%.

The St. Louis river gauge returned a 1.64-foot reading on July 13, with levels forecast to drop below the 0.00-foot mark on July 22. Depths at Memphis, Tenn., were posted at (-)0.59 feet and falling quickly on July 13, prompting expectations of a drop below the area’s (-)5.0-foot low stage on July 18.

A flood watch and heat advisory were in effect on July 13 for the Vicksburg, Miss., area. Both the watch and advisory were scheduled to expire late in the day on July 13. Baton Rouge, La., and Memphis were also under heat advisories on July 13.

Dredging on the lower river moved from Mile 525 to Miles 483-490 during the week, sources said, prompting rolling 24-hour shutdowns in the area while the project is underway. Sources expected delays of 24-36 hours. On the upper river, dredging was projected to begin at Mile 171 on July 13, and Mile 16 on July 11.

Channel work at Mile 933, which has limited southbound travel from 7:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. daily, was slated to wrap up in mid-July, sources said. Waits were noted in a general 12-18 hour range.

Illinois River:

Sources noted a 5% reduction on maximum drafts for vessels transiting the Illinois River due to low water levels, down from 5-10% reported previously. Wickets continued in the raised position at Peoria Lock and LaGrange Lock, necessitating lockages through both locations.

Starved Rock Lock was reportedly shut on July 11-14 for miter gate repairs. Commercial navigation is essentially unavailable on the waterway through an estimated Oct. 1 due to repairs and maintenance at Brandon Road Lock, Dresden Island Lock, and Marseilles Lock.

Ohio River:

Loading drafts remained limited to 10-10.5 feet on the Ohio River due to low water levels, sources said.

Floating mooring system repairs in progress at John T. Meyers Lock are scheduled through Aug. 20, closing the main chamber to navigation. The site’s auxiliary chamber will shut Aug. 21 through Sept. 10 for miter gate repairs, followed by an additional main chamber shutdown scheduled for Sept. 11 through Nov. 17.

The Melville Lock secondary chamber is reportedly offline through Aug. 4 for maintenance and repairs. The secondary chamber at McAlpine Lock is closed through Aug. 18.

Strong outflows at Smithland Lock required tows to use an assist vessel on southbound lockages. The site’s land chamber is due to go offline Sept. 22 through Oct. 21 for machinery repairs, while the river chamber will shut Oct. 22 through Nov. 20 for machinery replacement.

The Greenup Lock main chamber is closed through Aug. 14 for planned maintenance, prompting detours through the secondary chamber. Winfield Lock repairs scheduled to begin on July 10 were unlikely to impact navigation, sources said.

The Tennessee River’s Kentucky Lock saw waits up to 18 hours, while tows passing Wilson Lock were delayed up to 23 hours during the week. Loading drafts were reduced to 8.5 feet on the Monongahela River due to low water levels.

Crops/Weather

California, Crops/Weather, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

US Drought Monitor

Unseasonably warm weather settled over much of the Eastern Cornbelt during the week, but a change was on tap for the coming weekend.

Temperatures reached the mid-70s in central and northern Illinois as the week progressed, while highs in the mid- to upper-60s were common across Indiana during the week. On Nov. 11, however, a cold front was expected to push temperatures down to the 30s, with highs on Nov. 12 struggling to reach the upper-30s and low-40s in many locations.

Similar conditions were reported in Ohio during the week, with mild temperatures being replaced by much colder weather and 1-3 inches of rainfall across northern areas of the state on Nov. 11.

The fall harvest continued to progress ahead of the average pace in the Eastern Cornbelt. Illinois growers had 88% of the corn harvested by Nov. 6, compared with 83% in Indiana and 75% in Ohio. The regional soybean harvest was 92-94% complete by that date, and winter wheat planting had progressed to 97% complete in Ohio, 95% in Illinois, and 90% in Indiana.

Sources reported brisk fall fertilizer movement in the region ahead of the weekend weather change. “It’s been a big fall season,” commented one Illinois source. “Both dry and ammonia should be basically done by the end of next week.”

“Applications are in full swing in my area currently, and there’s still a small amount of harvest to finish up yet,” said one Ohio contact. “I don’t really expect fall applications to break any records, even though we have had ideal weather. I truly expect it to be in the average volume range, but I guess we will know when all is said and done.”

Western Cornbelt:

Although temperatures reached the 60s across Iowa and parts of Nebraska on Nov. 9-10, a drastic weather change was in the forecast for Nov. 11-12. Highs were expected to drop to the 20s and 30s in both states, with wind chills in the single digits. Some locations were also expecting strong storms as the weather transitioned.

Northern Missouri also saw temperatures fall from the 70s to the 40s on Nov. 10. The cold front brought strong thunderstorms to several areas as well, along with reports of 60-mph winds.

Corn Wheat Soybean Index

The corn harvest as of Nov. 6 was 89-90% complete in the Western Cornbelt, with the soybean harvest reported at 86% complete in Missouri, 97% in Iowa, and 100% in Nebraska. Missouri’s cotton crop was 93% harvested by that date, along with 87% of Nebraska’s sorghum harvest. Harvest progress was tracking ahead of the average pace for all crops in all three states.

California:

California’s rainy season got off to a promising start this week after a powerful storm prompted flood watches in parts of Southern California and blanketed the Sierra Nevada with heavy snow.

Rainfall totals for Nov. 6-9 included nearly an inch in Sacramento, an inch-and-a-half in Los Angeles, three inches in Grass Valley, 3.34 inches in Claremont, 4.75 inches in Mt. Baldy, and nearly seven inches in Crystal Lake in the Angeles National Forest. Snowfall totals included two feet in Palisades Tahoe, 2.8 feet in Sierra Snow Lab, and three feet in Bear Valley.

“We are thankfully getting an inch of rain today,” said one California contact at midweek. “We keep watching the forecast and hoping for a long run of nice, slow, soaker storms.”

USDA reported that 70% of California’s cotton was picked by Nov. 6, well ahead of the 56% five-year average. Arizona’s cotton crop was 49% harvested by that date. California growers also had 45% of the winter wheat planted by Nov. 6.

Pacific Northwest:

Much of the Pacific Northwest got an early taste of winter during the week, with 2-8 inches of snow reported across Idaho and Montana, along with single digit temperatures in parts of western Montana. Rain shifted to snow in southern Idaho at midweek, with up to two inches of accumulation expected in some areas.

Cool, wet weather was also reported along coastal areas of Oregon and Washington, with an additional 8-12 inches of snow accumulation in locations above 3,000 feet. I-90 near Snoqualmie Pass in western Washington has seen 34 inches of snow since Oct. 26, an all-time record, according to the Washington State Department of Transportation.

The inclement weather slowed fall fertilizer work, which one source described as brisk on preplant winter wheat ground. “Mother Nature has us stopped, but we’re hoping we still have some fall season to go,” commented one source. “If not, our consumption for this calendar year will be off by about 20%.”

Western Canada:

A powerful weekend storm brought snow, wind, and freezing temperatures to much of Saskatchewan, prompting a travel advisory on Nov. 6. Frigid temperatures moved in after the storm. Temperatures dropped to the negative teens as the week progressed, with lows on Nov. 9 falling to minus 17 C in Saskatoon and minus 13 C in Regina.

Alberta posted 33 daily record lows on Nov. 9, including minus 23.8 C in Calgary, minus 28.8 C in Edmonton and Lethbridge, and minus 29.3 C in Red Deer. Bitterly cold temperatures were also reported in British Columbia, with some southern areas of the province picking up heavy snow during the week.

Another system was expected to bring heavy snowfall and gusty winds to southern Manitoba on Nov. 10, with forecasts warning of 10-25 cm of accumulation in some areas.

Several sources reported a brisk fall application pace for several weeks in late October and early November, particularly for ammonia, but the inclement weather appears to have put an end to the fall season. “It looks like the window is over and winter is setting in,” commented one regional contact. Added another source: “Basically it’s wrapped up already. Alberta has got two feet of snow so far.”