All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

PhosAgro Cherepovets Project Remains on Hold

Ammonia, News Briefs, Ukraine, Urea

PhosAgro CFO Alexander Sharabaiko told Interfax on June 10 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the Russian fertilizer company next year plans to approve a strategy for the development of its capacity to 2030.

“We want to complete everything that we planned as part of the Strategy-2025 either this year or in the first quarter of next year, saving a little time. And concurrently we’ll start developing the Strategy-2030, which we have to approve next year,” Sharabaiko said.

“We see the focus as further increasing ore mining,” he added “We have a program to develop the resource base that is far longer than the Strategy-2030. And concurrently we’ll look at the possibility of increasing apatite concentrate processing at our plants.”

One of PhosAgro’s main projects was previously expected to be the construction of a new complex in Cherepovets with capacity to produce 1 million mt/y of ammonia and up to 1 million mt/y of urea.

The project has yet to materialize, and many observers attribute the delay to the difficulty in acquiring technology under Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. The company said in 2023 that it was in negotiations with Chinese technology licensors. Sharabaiko said a final investment decision on the project has not been made yet.

Lithuania’s Lifosa Restarts Phosphate Production

DAP/MAP, Lithuania, News Briefs, Phosphoric Acid

Lithuanian media outlets on June 10 reported that production has restarted at EuroChem Group AG’s Lifosa plant in Kėdainiai in central Lithuania. Kėdainiai Mayor Valentinas Tamulis also confirmed that production resumed on June 10 and first deliveries are set to commence on June 17.

“Shifts are already being assigned, the whole process is moving towards production flow,” Vitalijus Varnas, Chairman of Lifosa’s trade union, told national news outlet BNS. This follows earlier reports in late May about a possible restart of the facility (GM May 31, p. 26).

Lifosa, which has an annual capacity of 990,000 mt of DAP and 850,000 mt of phosphoric acid, was shut down for annual scheduled maintenance in May 2023 and had been idled since.

Acron to Expand NH3 Capacity in Smolensk in 2025

Ammonia, News Briefs, Nitrogen, Russia

Russian fertilizer producer Acron Group plans to expand ammonia production capacity to 2,350 mt/d at its Dorogobuzh plant in Russia’s Smolensk region, according to Vasily Anokhin, Governor of the region. The budget for the expansion project is RUB600 million ($6.9 million), Anokhin said, adding that the project is scheduled for completion in the fall of 2025.

Dorogobuzh produces nitrogen and compound fertilizers, as well as industrial products. It produced 2.3 million mt of commercial product in 2023, including 1.4 million mt of ammonium nitrate and 800,000 mt of NPK fertilizer.

Acron completed a RUB1.2 billion ($13.8 million) overhaul of the Dorogobuzh ammonia unit last year that increased capacity to 2,250 mt/d from the prior 2,100 mt (GM April 28, 2023). Dorogobuzh’s ammonia unit was commissioned in 1979 and underwent a major upgrade in 2019, increasing daily output from 1,740 mt to 2,100 mt.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Brazil, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Indonesia, Iran, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., Southeast Asia, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf/Tampa:

The Tampa ammonia price for June continued at $400/mt CFR, with no firm indications on the direction for July. While the first round of summer fill prices pressured ammonia terminal levels in the Midwest, stable natural gas prices left international ammonia levels largely unchanged amid continued urea volatility.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices took a dive during the week with the announcement of limited fill program offers from certain producers. Prompt prices started the week at the $550-$560/st FOB level in the Eastern Cornbelt, but by midweek fill offers were reportedly circulating at $515/st FOB in Indiana for June and as low as $385/st FOB in Illinois for July.

Some producers elected not to participate at those levels while others were competing on a delivered basis, with limited June offers quoted at $480-$510/st DEL in the region, depending on location. By the end of the week, however, sources said most of the lower fill offers had been pulled and $550-$560/st FOB or DEL was back on the table for prompt tons.

Western Cornbelt:

The first round of ammonia fill programs circulated in the region during the week, with sources reporting limited offers out of Wever, Iowa, at $385/st FOB and $425-$450/st DEL in Iowa and Missouri for June pull. Other suppliers were not competing or doing so on a limited basis, with reports of June offers at $480-$510/st DEL in the region, depending on location.

By the end of the week, most offers were either pulled or revised, with sources quoting prompt ammonia at the $550/st FOB level in the region. In the Southern Plains, June fill offers were quoted down to the $335/st FOB level out of some production points at midweek, but offers were withdrawn or revised to $500/st FOB by the end of the week.

California:

Ammonia list prices in California were quoted at $680/st DEL for anhydrous and $187-$197/st FOB for aqua ammonia, reflecting increases of $10/st for anhydrous and $1/st for aqua.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest slipped to $625-$650/st FOB, with the aqua ammonia market steady at the $168/st FOB level in the region.

Western Canada:

Ammonia prices in Western Canada tumbled to C$950-$1,000/mt DEL for June, down sharply from the last prompt spring business at the C$1,130-$1,150/mt DEL level.

Northwest Europe:

Ammonia in Northwest Europe remained at $460-$470/mt CFR, supported by stable natural gas prices of around $10.50/MMBtu and rising nitrates prices.

Southeast Asia:

With no new spot business reported in the region, the Southeast Asia ammonia market remained at $350-$400/mt FOB, unchanged from last week. Suppliers’ price targets from Indonesia and Malaysia were reported at $400/mt FOB.

Iran:  

January-April exports from Iran totaled 188,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a slight decline from the year-ago 195,000 mt. Brazil took 156,000 mt, for 83% of the exports, followed by Turkey with 21,000 mt. April shipments were 34,000 mt, down 35% from 52,000 mt in April 2023.

Indonesia:     

Indonesia exported 591,000 mt of ammonia in January-April, according to Trade Data Monitor,off from the 597,000 mt shipped through the same period of 2023. South Korea led buyers with 163,000 mt, while China took 138,000 mt. April exports were reported at 143,000 mt, a 35% decline from the 221,000 mt posted one year earlier.

Brazil:

Brazil ammonia imports for January-May firmed 30% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 156,000 mt from 120,000 mt. Trinidad was the dominant supplier with 130,000 mt, accounting for 84% of the import market. May imports of 22,000 mt edged down from the 23,000 mt received in May 2023.

While Brazil will sometimes act as a major supplier to regional buyers, ammonia shipments from the country have been limited so far in 2024. Brazil exported just 80 mt through the first five months of the year against 33,000 mt shipped during the same period of 2023, with all of the tonnage going to Uruguay.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mediterranean, Middle East, Pacific N.W., Southeast Asia, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea prices continued to firm, fueled by last week’s production curtailments in Egypt and news this week of an official halt to exports from China. Prices for loaded barges moved to $310-$312/st FOB early in the week after closing out the prior Friday in the low-$300s/st FOB, then strengthened again to $320-$330/st FOB as the week progressed.

Full June offers were pegged in the $308-$320/st FOB range during the week, with July reported at $300-$315/st FOB, depending on timing. Last week’s range was $290-$302/st FOB for prompt and June business.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea was pegged at $365-$375/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed out of Illinois and Ohio River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market remained at $365-$375/st FOB during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea in the Western Cornbelt remained at $345-$375/st FOB, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high in Iowa.

California:

Urea was quoted at in a broad range at $490-$540/st FOB in California, with the low reported for granular bulk tons at Stockton and the high for prilled urea at San Diego. Bagged granular urea prices were reported at the $560/st level FOB Stockton during the week. No current DEL prices were confirmed.

Pacific Northwest:

The urea market slipped to $410-$430/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location and time of the week, with delivered tons falling to a low of $375/st in mid-June.

Western Canada:

The urea market dropped to C$625-$630/mt DEL in Western Canada for June-August fill offers, well below the last C$775-$780/mt DEL spring pricing.

India: 

International traders continue to predict a urea tender will be called before the end of June, with delivery likely stipulated for July and August. The absence of Chinese urea from the global market could force India to pay more than the $339-$348/mt CFR awarded in the last tender.

Due to fluctuations in the urea market, sources have predicted that India will take no more than 1 million mt in its next tender. Reserves already on hand – estimated at 11 million mt – will make it easier for the buying companies to delay larger purchases in the hope of snagging lower prices in the future.

However, Chinese urea is not expected to be a major force in the global market for the rest of the year, sources said, leaving India to depend on supply from Russia and the Middle East. While the Russians might be willing to provide a lower price than Arab Gulf producers, sources said they will not be able to supply the full tonnage that India will need.

Black Sea:     

The price for prilled urea shot up more than $30/mt in the region, to $300-$305/mt FOB. The increase exceeded those reported in other urea-producing areas except for China, which came down.

Mediterranean:

News of natural gas curtailments in Egypt pushed Egyptian granular urea prices to as high as $355/mt FOB during the week and kept most European buyers in the Mediterranean on the sidelines. Importers believe they can afford to wait given that it is the offseason for urea on the continent.

Italy is still not buying imported tons due to weather delays. Offers were heard around $350/mt CFR in nearby Romania and FCA prices on the French Atlantic coast reflect around $365/mt CFR. As a result, granular urea in the Mediterranean edged up to $350-$365/mt CFR this week.

There were no reports or indications on prilled urea from Italian buyers, but the range moved higher to $325-$355/mt CFR, mirroring movement in the granular market and higher prill netbacks reported in the Baltic and Black Sea regions.

Southeast Asia:

No FOB granular urea deals were concluded this week as the Southeast Asian market seems slow to respond to upward pressure mounting in the Arab Gulf.

Indonesia appears to be taking a breather after hefty sales following its latest tender, while Petronas in Malaysia has no June spot availability. The Southeast Asia granular urea market was unchanged at $312-$320/mt FOB.

Indonesia:     

The shipment of roughly half of the 280,000 mt of granular urea sold under the recent Pupuk Kaltim tender may be delayed to the first half of July, sources said. While Pupuk Holdings was reportedly expecting Australian demand to begin waning and Kaltim production to remain on track, neither has happened.

Rains in Western Australia have prompted buyers to call for more product, sources reported, and about half of the tender volume will go to that area. At the same time, Kaltim has experienced ongoing production issues. The company will be able to ship product already held in reserve, but only after increased demand reported from the domestic market has been covered. The producer is also entering the rainy season. Vessel loading must be delayed until the rains stop, further eroding its promise of June shipments.

Indonesian urea exports stepped 48% higher in January-April, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 411,000 mt from the year-ago 277,000 mt. Australian buyers took 203,000 mt, followed by the Philippines with 69,000 mt. April exports were 70,000 mt, a significant decline from the 170,000 mt exported in April 2023.

Middle East: 

Following news that China has stopped all urea exports while Egyptian urea production remains shut down, the price of urea from the Middle East shot higher. Arab Gulf granular urea was reportedly sold at $350/mt FOB, up about $20/mt from last week, while Iranian product traded at a reported $300-$303/mt FOB, a $10/mt increase from the last sale.

Arab Gulf producers are sold out through the first half of July, traders said, and the only tons moving were booked earlier in May or under routine contract obligations. Anyone looking for product will have to wait until late July for shipment – if any tons are available – and will have to pay more than the current rate.

Talks were centered on $360/mt FOB during the week, sources said. The paper market lagged behind producer expectations, however, with July quotes noted at $345-$355/mt FOB.

Iran exported 1.8 million mt of urea in January-April, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 70% increase from the 1.1 million mt shipped through the first four months of 2023. Turkey bought 974,000 mt, Brazil received 316,000 mt, and Oman took 184,000 mt. The material sent to Oman will likely be reexported to another buyer, one trader noted. April exports stood at 506,000 mt, up 15% from 442,000 mt in April 2023.

Egyptian production remains largely offline. Last week’s promise of resumed natural gas supplies does not seem to have been fulfilled, sources said. The lack of new production, and the expectation that plants will be unable to immediately return to high capacity once production is restarted, has pushed up the price of granular urea. Deals were reportedly done at $355/mt FOB with offers for July shipment reported in the $360s/mt FOB.

China:

Late last week, sources reported that the CIQ export process would cease over the weekend. By Monday, local port authorities had received written instructions that all urea export procedures were to be halted. The announcement, in combination with the massive shutdowns in Egypt, triggered a major price increase in the global urea market.

The discussions to cut back on China’s already-restricted urea exports began in late May, sources said, when domestic prices began rising and some producers had begun actively seeking international buyers. The late-May price increase was not related to reports that exports would soon be allowed, sources said, but instead came as strong rains appeared toward the end of the current application season in rice-producing areas.

The resurgent domestic demand pushed up prices just as producers were gearing up to ship product overseas, and producers were forced to make alternative arrangements to move their product. Instead of being shipped to an export facility, the urea was required to make the more arduous journey to regional distribution centers. The shift caused some delays in shipping, as well as higher costs.

The National Development and Reform Commission last week informed urea producers that unless prices stabilized, all exports would be stopped. Once the order was given, prices reportedly dropped by $10-$15/mt, leaving prilled urea at an estimated $330-$335/mt FOB equivalent and granular estimates at $340-$345/mt FOB. Both prices were based on the current ex-factory price plus additional costs to prepare the product for export.

If the softer price trend continues, said one trader, some limited tons might be made available for export in late July. Even before the CIQ export process was stopped, only limited cargoes of 5,000-10,000 mt were being cleared to ship. Any July shipments are expected to fall along those same lines.

One less optimistic trader noted, however, that given how urea exports have been severely restricted since October, there is nothing stopping the Chinese government from extending the export limitations through the rest of the year.

If the government does relent and allow significant tonnage to be shipped sometime soon, sources expressed concerns of a potential rush to sell material on the open market. Even if the government allows only limited large cargoes to go out, the change could psychologically impact the market and precipitate a price crash.

Sources also noted rumors that the Chinese government is using the export restrictions to force older urea production facilities to shut down. The plants, said one trader, are inefficient and will have difficulties staying online as prices drop. At the same time, closing these plants would help the central government when it resumes its occasional campaigns to reduce air pollution.

During past drives to improve air quality, the government leaned heavily on older facilities to reduce output and, in some cases, shut down for a limited time. There have been fears in the past that forcing a shutdown could exacerbate unemployment in many poorer regions, though sources said the central government now seems to have pushed the employment issue to the side.

Brazil:

Granular urea prices lifted 7.2% in Brazil amid the recent events in Egypt and China and ensuing price increases from Iran and the Arab Gulf, jumping to $365-$375/mt CFR from last week’s $340-$350/mt CFR. There were unconfirmed reports of a $380/mt CFR trade, though buyer interest was noted falling off at higher prices.

The firmer CFR values pushed inland prices up $5/mt week-over-week, to $470-$490/mt FOB Rondonópolis.

Trade Data Monitor reported January-May urea imports to Brazil at 2.4 million mt, statistically unchanged from the same period of 2023. Nigeria led suppliers with 529,000 mt, Qatar shipped 460,000 mt, and Oman added 430,000 mt. May imports softened 22%, to 460,000 mt from the 592,000 mt received in May 2023.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA UAN market slipped to $220-$225/st ($6.88-$7.03/unit) FOB based on upriver netbacks, down from $225-$235/st ($7.03-$7.34/unit) FOB last week. While no actual NOLA barge transactions were confirmed during the week, upriver terminal prices remained under downward pressure.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market slipped to $255-$270/st ($7.97-$8.44/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Mount Vernon, Ind. The latest Cincinnati offers included UAN-32 at $265/st ($8.28/unit) FOB and UAN-28 at $231.88/st ($8.28/unit) FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 dropped to $260-$275/st ($8.13-$8.59/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from $270-$290/st ($8.44-$9.06/unit) FOB, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

California:

UAN-32 fell to $315-$325/st ($9.84-$10.16/unit) FOB terminals in California, down from the prior $330-$345/st ($10.31-$10.78/unit) FOB range, with the lower numbers reported at Stockton and the high at Port Hueneme. No current rail-DEL offers were reported in the state.

Pacific Northwest:

UAN-32 pricing was quoted at a solid $320/st ($10.00/unit) FOB in the Pacific Northwest, down from $350-$360/st ($10.94-$11.25/unit) FOB at last report. Delivered pricing slipped to the $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) range in the region, well below the prior $350-$360/st ($10.94-$11.25/unit) level.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 fill pricing in the region fell to C$400/mt (C$14.29/unit) DEL for June-August, down from the last spring business at C$470-$480/mt (C$16.79-$17.14/unit) DEL.

France:

UAN prices at Rouen were stable this week at €245-€265/mt FCA, with limited volumes changing hands. The period of stability follows a rally in the urea market. Coverage for the 2024/25 season is said to have advanced to around 45%.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Brazil, France, Market Watch, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate was quoted at $375-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with both the high and low confirmed in Missouri.

France:

Yara on June 10 raised its ammonium nitrate price in France by €13/mt for August deliveries, to €368/mt CPT. Prompt prices were unchanged.

Brazil:

Brazil imported 285,000 mt of ammonium nitrate in January-May, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 12% decline from the year-ago 322,000 mt. Russia accounted for 84% of the total with 239,000 mt, followed by the US with 31,000 mt. May imports were noted at 88,000 mt, an increase from 78,000 mt in May 2023.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Southeast Asia, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The latest NOLA ammonium sulfate barge business was reported at the $385-$390/st FOB level, down $5/st from last week.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $415-$435/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Illinois River locations and the high in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $410-$430/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the upper end in Nebraska.

California:

The ammonium sulfate market dropped to $377-$407/st FOB in California, down from the prior $410-$460/st FOB range, with the low reported at Richvale and Helm the high at French Camp. Bagged product was reported at the $520/st level FOB Stockton during the week.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonium sulfate was pegged at $365-$420/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and supplier.

Western Canada:

The latest ammonium sulfate offers in Western Canada slipped to C$510-$520/mt DEL for prompt June tons, well below the last spring pricing at C$580-$600/mt DEL.

China:

Prices in China surged this week on reports of reduced output, stronger domestic and international demand, and higher urea prices. Initial pricing ideas ranged from a low of $160/mt FOB to a high of $190/mt FOB. In the end, the market settled at $175-$185/mt FOB, with every likelihood that prices will hit $200/mt FOB in the week ahead.

The increased domestic demand came from NPK producers seeking nitrogen content. By the end of May and through the first week of June, domestic urea prices were rising too far for NPK producers to accept. They turned to amsul just as Brazil stepped up demand for use in its own NPK production and as several plants went down for routine maintenance.

Neither the jump in pricing nor the limited available tonnage are expected to inspire any urea-style export restrictions. Ammonium sulfate has not been included in any of the export restrictions placed on fertilizers.

Southeast Asia:         

Atlas Fertilizer, of the Philippines, called a tender for 8,000 mt of caprolactam grade amsul. The tender was slated to close on June 14.

Indonesia’s Pupuk Holdings has yet to reveal any numbers in its 35,000 mt caprolactam grade amsul tender. The tender called for June deliveries to three different ports, including 20,000 mt to Gresik, 5,000 mt to Palembang, and 10,000 mt to Jakarta.

Brazil:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices moved up 9.6% in Brazil, to $195-$205/mt from $180-$185/mt CFR at last report, following both the rising urea market and higher ammonium sulfate prices reported in China. Rondonópolis prices remained stable at $305-$315/mt FOB, however.

January-May ammonium sulfate imports firmed 5% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 1.3 million mt from 1.2 million mt during the same period in 2023, with China supplying 1.2 million mt. May imports stood at 206,000 mt, a 5% increase from the 186,000 mt received in May 2023.

DAP/MAP

Baltic Sea, Benelux, Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

The Central Florida DAP market declined $20/st at the high side of the range to settle at a flat $560/st FOB. MAP trucks held their value at $600/st FOB. North Florida MAP postings were stable at $630/st FOB.

US Gulf:

With NOLA players reportedly feeling more comfortable with vessel arrivals and near-term supply, NOLA phosphates were noted trading at lower volumes. Despite the slower week, DAP and MAP barges moved higher, notching price gains of 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively.

DAP traded multiple times between $540-$546/st FOB, players said, rising from last week’s $528-$535/st FOB range. MAP barges continued to show strength in the tight market, lifting to $600-$620/st FOB from $590-$600/st FOB at last report.

US Exports:

With no new spot business reported, the US Gulf DAP and MAP markets continued at $550/mt FOB and $570/mt FOB, respectively.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP remained at $600-$640/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals for June-July offers. MAP prices reportedly ticked up to $660-$680/st FOB in the region, depending on location. The latest Cincinnati offers were pegged at $630-$640/st FOB for DAP and $660-$670/st FOB for MAP.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $630-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP pegged in the $660-$680/st FOB range in the region. Pricing at St. Louis remained at $640-$650/st FOB for DAP and $665-$675/st FOB for MAP during the week.

California:

MAP was unchanged at $790/st FOB or DEL for the latest offers in California.

Pacific Northwest:

Prompt MAP offers remained $770-$780/mt DEL in the Pacific Northwest, though July fill offers were reportedly circulating in the $710-$740/st DEL range in the region.

Western Canada:

MAP fill for July-August was quoted at the C$1,030-$1,040/mt DEL level in Western Canada, down roughly C$100/mt from spring pricing.

Benelux:

DAP prices in Benelux ticked higher during the week, with offers heard at €600/mt FCA buoyed by limited product availability, mainly of Moroccan origin, as Russian producers opt to serve a robust domestic market.

Some respite may come with the resumption of production at EuroChem’s Lithuanian plant Lifosa, which is slated for June 17, according to Russian media. At midweek exchange rates, the current price level of €590-€600/mt FCA translates to $634-$644/mt FCA due to a depreciating euro following the recent European elections.

Morocco:

Moroccan DAP prices were stable this week, with hefty volumes sold in the existing range of $495-$585/mt FOB for Europe and Latin America. Higher netbacks were achieved on select European sales but for very small volumes, and fell outside the scope of this week’s price range.

Baltic:

MAP prices in the Baltic moved up $10/mt on the high end, to $530-$550/mt FOB, reflecting higher Brazilian CFR levels. A sale into Latin America was reported to yield some higher netbacks of above $560/mt FOB but could not be confirmed by press time.

China:

Phosphate producers were summoned by the National Development and Reform Commission to discuss prices and inventories, sources said.

The producers were reportedly told that if they did not control their prices and exports, they could find themselves in the same situation currently affecting the country’s urea producers. One trader noted that immediately after the CIQ export process was halted for urea, players pulled away from DAP and MAP export discussions. The fear of an export ban led traders to wait for clarity on the status of phosphate exports.

The price of DAP has not moved as rapidly as urea, giving producers and international traders a bit more breathing room than that of their urea counterparts. The demand for phosphates did not rebound as firmly as did urea demand, leaving little activity in the domestic market.

The price firmed into the low-$520s/mt FOB during the week, however, with sources providing conflicting signals about whether deals were actually done at that level. What was clear to all traders, however, is that this is the price level where all discussions are taking place. Some of the higher offers into Indian tenders reflect netbacks at a similar level, one trader noted.

Prices are expected to see more upward pressure in the next few weeks. Bangladesh will soon begin talks for its major DAP purchases, sources said. At the same time, Pakistan has been sending out feelers to acquire more DAP. Those moves come as India also needs to step up its DAP buying as demand for product will soon begin to ramp up.

India: 

Calls for DAP purchases from a variety of buyers have shown a wide range of prices. Sources reported recent offers from $520/mt CFR – up slightly from last week – to the $540s/mt CFR, with netbacks from the top of the range reflecting current price ideas out of China.

For now, sources said the market’s previous price of $518/mt CFR is long gone. They added that if any Indian buyers accept a low-$520s/mt CFR offer, the seller will have a hard time finding product on the open market at that level, with the possible exception of a Russian supplier.

The rising price of DAP in India is now once again surpassing the subsidy levels. Private-sector importers will be forced to back out of the market, sources said, because any sale would be a money-loser. That leaves state-owned entities to handle the imports. One trader noted that these buyers do not have to depend on the subsidy to provide DAP at the allowed price because they can receive state funding in ways the private sector cannot.

Brazil:

Brazil MAP strengthened to $600-$605/mt CFR on firm demand and limited supply, rising from the week-ago $575-$595/mt CFR. Buyers continue to focus on securing product for the soybean season, while January-May imports were down 30% from the previous year.

The decrease in imports has also impacted inland prices, with tons reportedly moving to $730-$760/mt FOB Rondonópolis, up $10/mt from the prior week.

Trade Data Monitor reported January-May MAP imports at 1.4 million mt, down 32% from the 2 million mt received through the first five months of 2023. Russia topped the supplier list with 955,000 mt, for about 70% of the total. Morocco followed with 249,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia added 139,000 mt. May imports fell 14% year-over-year, to 340,000 mt from 396,000 mt.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

With players reporting a tight market, NOLA TSP barges moved 5.7% higher, to $465-$480/st FOB from last week’s $430-$465/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was unchanged at $500-$510/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $510-$520/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis.

Brazil:

TSP prices gained $20/mt at the low side to settle at a flat $445/mt CFR. Sources reported limited availability, with new offers pointing to August arrivals.

Players continued to grapple with limited availability as many sellers chose to sit out the TSP market for a second straight week. Pricing expectations were noted in the $550-$570/mt FOB Rondonópolis range, though more sales are needed to confirm the market’s direction.