All posts by hlancey@bloomberg.net

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, France, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

No new business was reported for NOLA UAN during the week, leaving the price at the last reported $270-$280/st ($8.44-$8.75/unit) FOB range based on netbacks from transactions at upriver or inland terminals.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 price continued at $300-$325/st ($9.38-$10.16/unit) FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of delivery, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $300-$310/st ($9.38-$9.69/unit) FOB. UAN-28 was quoted at the $263-$275/st ($9.39-$9.82/unit) level FOB Cincinnati in late March.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was pegged at $300-$325/st ($9.38-$10.16/unit) FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment. The St. Louis market was reported at both the high and low ends of the range, depending on time of shipment, with delivered pricing also confirmed at the $300/st level to St. Louis from production points in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The UAN-32 market remained at $315-$330/st ($9.84-$10.31/unit) FOB terminals in Minnesota, with the latest UAN-28 offers quoted at the $325/st ($11.61/unit) DEL level in the Northern Plains for tons from Canada.

Northeast:

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in the port of Baltimore reportedly resulted in suppliers withdrawing most offers for UAN at that location, as the Baltimore port handles about one-third of the East Coast UAN trade.

Limited port terminal offers for UAN-32 in the Northeast jumped to $325/st ($10.16/unit) FOB, where available, with the last offers out of inland terminals in upstate New York holding firmly at the $350/st (10.94/unit) FOB level. Rail-DEL pricing in the Mid-Atlantic was quoted in the $325-$335/st ($10.16-$10.47/unit) range during the week.

Eastern Canada:

UAN-28 pricing in Eastern Canada was quoted at C$448-$460/mt (C$16.00-$16.43/unit) FOB, down from the prior low of C$455/mt (C$16.25/unit) FOB. The UAN-32 market in Ontario slipped to C$512/mt (C$16.00/unit) FOB, below the previous C$520/mt (C$16.25/unit) level.

France:

UAN prices were unchanged this week, supported by piecemeal demand for current application. This demand is likely to continue for the next two to three weeks, at which point prices are expected to reset for the new season at around €215-€220/mt FCA.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

No new NOLA barge business was reported for ammonium sulfate during the week, leaving the range at last week’s $375-$385/st FOB level for confirmed trades.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing climbed to $400-$420/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from last week’s $390/st FOB low. In the Great Lakes region, the latest delivered offers in Michigan firmed to the $440/st level for March-April tons.

Western Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market jumped to $400-$420/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $20-$25/st from last week, with the St. Louis market pegged firmly in the $410-$420/st FOB range during the week.

Northern Plains:

Delivered granular ammonium sulfate firmed to a broad $395-$450/st range in the Northern Plains, up from $370-$430/st DEL at last report, with the low for Canadian tons. Terminal prices jumped to $400-$425/st FOB, up from $370-$410/st FOB, with the low reported at St. Paul and the high in North Dakota.

Northeast:

Granular ammonium sulfate strengthened to $400-$420/st FOB across the eastern Ohio River system, up significantly from the prior $355-$380/st FOB level. Delivered pricing in the Northeast also firmed, to $385-$415/st from the previous $365-$375/st DEL range, depending on location.

Eastern Canada:

The latest ammonium sulfate offers jumped to C$580-$640/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up from the previous C$545-$590/mt FOB range.

Northwest Europe:

Ammonium sulfate prices in the region have climbed higher. A small sale of standard material set the high end this week, with the low side reflecting a buyer bid. Producers continue to cite low caprolactam operating rates and a tight sulfur market as reasons for the recent bullishness.

China:

The price range widened at China as demand for caprolactam grade amsul has picked up. Sources now report the price at $120-$130/mt FOB.

There were reports of several small lots sold to Asian buyers early in the week priced in the low-$120s/mt FOB. Sources said at least three 5,000-10,000 mt cargoes were sold in the high-$120s/mt FOB later in the week. An additional set of orders combined into a single 20,000-30,000 mt cargo shipping in early April were also priced in the upper-$120s/mt FOB, players noted.

Thailand:      

Thailand imported 75,000 mt of amsul during the first two months of 2024, according to Trade Data Monitor, a substantial leap from the year-ago 13,000 mt. As expected, China dominated the imports, sending 74,000 mt. February imports were pegged at 55,000 mt, above the 2,700 mt recorded in February 2023.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate imports softened 3%, to $155-$160/mt CFR from $160-$165/mt CFR at last report, with multiple cargoes noted changing hands. Buyers were reportedly testing the market at $145-$150/mt CFR, with no transactions confirmed.

Rondonópolis prices followed the urea market lower. Deals tracked in the $270-$275/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, down from last week’s $270-$295/mt FOB, with higher offers reportedly failing to transact.

DAP/MAP

Argentina, Baltic Sea, Benelux, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Morocco, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Despite the fire at Mosaic’s Riverview phosphate production facility, DAP truck postings remained at $630/st FOB during the week, unchanged from the prior report. MAP trucks were steady at $655/st FOB, while North Florida MAP postings continued at $650/st FOB.

US Gulf:

Prompt and loaded barges continued to trade at a premium during the week, though both DAP and MAP lost value from the top of their respective ranges. DAP barges settled at $570-$620/st FOB, off $10/st FOB from the week-ago high, while MAP softened to $620-$635/st FOB, dropping $5/st from last week’s $640/st FOB top end.

US Exports:

Nothing new was reported on the US Gulf market, leaving DAP and MAP export prices steady at $570/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices tightened to $675-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with both the high and low confirmed at Cincinnati during the week. Most Illinois River terminals were quoted firmly at the $680-$685/st FOB level for April tons. MAP was pegged at $685-$695/st FOB for limited tons in the region, with the low again reported on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati MAP market remained at $690-$695/st FOB during the week.

In the Great Lakes region, delivered DAP and MAP were quoted at the $735/st level during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was pegged at $670-$715/st FOB for limited tons in the Western Cornbelt, with the MAP market quoted at $675-$715/st FOB in the region. St. Louis offers were reported at $680-$715/st FOB for DAP, with the high for very limited prompt tons and the low for April shipment. MAP at St. Louis was reported at $675-$715/st FOB, with the low for April tons.

Northern Plains:

DAP was pegged in a broad range at $680-$715/st FOB St. Paul in late March, depending on time of shipment, with MAP reported at $715-$725/st FOB at that location.

Northeast:

The DAP and MAP markets in the Northeast remained at $695-$725/st FOB and $705-$725/st FOB, respectively, with rail-DEL pricing pegged at $715-$725/st for DAP and $730/st for MAP.

Eastern Canada:

The latest MAP offers in Eastern Canada were reported at C$985-$995/mt FOB, down C$8/mt at the low end of the range, while DAP pricing slipped to C$945/mt FOB Montreal, reflecting a decline of C$10/mt from last report.

Morocco:

Moroccan DAP prices were lower this week, fueled by lower Indian prices netting back to around $530/mt FOB Morocco following the opening up of Chinese exports. A small parcel committed to Europe was said to reflect $610/mt FOB Morocco, which constitutes the high end of this week’s range.

Benelux:

DAP prices in Benelux remained firm this week as availability in the region is snug. Despite offers inching nominally higher in euro terms, the dollar appreciation resulted in an unchanged assessment of $660-$675/mt FCA.

Baltic:

Russian DAP prices moved lower to around $525/mt FOB, reflecting the latest Indian netbacks. Lithuanian DAP, which continues to reflect values from Benelux, remained stable at $620/mt FOB. No further price movement was reported for MAP in the Baltic due to flatness in Brazilian CFR values, with netbacks quoted at $500-$510/mt FOB.

China:

DAP and MAP export paperwork can now be filed for tons shipping in April, sources said. Currently, the process is said to require about two weeks from filing to approval, assuming that no issues arise.

Inspectors are looking to ensure that exports will not affect domestic supply, but also that the producer has received the appropriate allocation to permit the export. No reports have yet surfaced on how the export quotas are being allocated to individual producers. One source noted that inspectors will be looking at local stockpiles and the estimated output of the plant to safeguard supply for the local market.

Earlier this month, the government indicated the export quota for DAP will total around 5 million mt for tons shipping from March 15, 2024, through April 30, 2025. The MAP export quota was indicated around 2 million mt. Individual plants will receive specific export allotments based on these quotas.

Sources looked to a $575/mt CFR sale reported into India to estimate a China-equivalent netback of $550-$555/mt FOB. In talks with traders, producers have reportedly named $570-$575/mt FOB as the minimum expected price once exports begin next month.

However, the Indian deal offers a solid window into current prices, one trader noted, even if the product in that deal does not come from China. Morocco and other Arab producers were unlikely to have agreed to a deal at this price, the trader added, leaving China as the most likely source.

India: 

Sources reported a DAP purchase at $575/mt CFR. While the origins of the material were unclear, several sources speculated the tons would likely ship from China when exports resume next month.

Some made an argument for Russia as the source of the material, but quickly countered their own point by noting the netback on the deal would be too low for suppliers. However, the Russian government could have leaned on a supplier to provide India with product in an effort to enhance governmental relations, one trader noted.

This deal is the second time the Indian DAP price has moved lower in recent weeks. Sources said Indian buyers have been pushing hard for the reductions.

Reportedly, the country is desperately short of DAP. While the product is not needed until June, India’s state-owned and private buyers have been aggressively seeking material to be shipped in April and early May to ensure full warehouses for the start of the upcoming application season.

The government is particularly concerned with having ample phosphate supplies on hand, as voting in the national elections begins in April. Sources said the government wants to show local distributors and farmers it is ensuring that enough reasonably priced fertilizer is available.

For now, even the $575/mt CFR price is higher than what can be recovered under the current Nutrient Based Subsidy plan, where sources have put the breakeven point in the $495-$515/mt CFR range. Indian buyers have argued since the fourth quarter that prices had to come down in order to meet this level. Infrequent purchases have been made at higher prices, but only when needed.

This has resulted in DAP reserves totaling approximately 1.5 million mt in the country. Sources said this is not enough to properly start the application season, and lackluster imports are not helping the situation. Trade Data Monitor reported January DAP imports of 44,000 mt, all from Saudi Arabia,a significant decline from the 564,000 mt received in January 2023.

The lack of Chinese DAP in the trade numbers illustrated the effectiveness of Beijing’s export restrictions. The market’s persistent high prices also contributed to the low import total.

Brazil:

Brazil MAP continued at the week-ago $565-$570/mt CFR level, while inland offers were noted at a $580/mt CFR equivalent.

Rondonópolis prices were stable at $680-$700/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with sources reporting few sales concluding during the week. Barter ratios remain unfavorable for rural producers, who prefer to wait for lower prices before committing to new business.

Argentina:    

Trade Data Monitor put January-February MAP imports at 32,000 mt, up from the 12,000 mt received during the first two months of 2023. Argentina was able to land some of China’s last available MAP exports, snagging 24,000 mt, accounting for 75% of the period’s imports.

February imports were noted at 18,000 mt, more than doubling Argentina’s 7,000 mt intake during February 2023.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA TSP barges were priced at $435-$445/st FOB, up $5/st at the low end of the range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $520-$545/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati. Delivered TSP pricing in Michigan edged up to the $570/st level in late March.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP was unchanged at $515-$535/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.

Brazil:

Following several weeks of import price stability, landed TSP levels slipped to $420-$430/mt CFR, though Rondonópolis prices were steady at $540-$555/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources continue to report interest from buyers seeking alternative sources of phosphorus due to high MAP prices.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:

SSP 19-21 imports slid $5/mt, to $190-$220/mt CFR from last week’s $195-$225/mt CFR. The Rondonópolis market was steady at $305-$335/mt FOB, with few deals concluded. SSP-23 offers were reported in the $360-$370/mt FOB ex-warehouse range.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 pricing remained at $550-$560/st FOB for the latest offers in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was steady at $530-$550/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the high reported in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $540-$560/st FOB in the Northern Plains, depending on location and time of shipment.

Northeast:

10-34-0 was unchanged at $550/st FOB in New York.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, Potash Muriate, Southeast Asia, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA potash barges continued to be quoted in the $310-$315/st FOB range for the latest trades, though sources described a slow market during the week, with most new business reportedly centering on the $310/st FOB mark. While some continued to talk of rumored barge transactions at sub-$310/st FOB levels, no business was confirmed at the lower numbers.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash was unchanged at $365-$385/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at Cincinnati and out of spot Illinois River terminals. Delivered pricing in Michigan was pegged at the $410/st level for red granular tons.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash remained at $360-$385/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high reported in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

Potash slipped to $375-$390/st FOB St. Paul, with delivered tons reported at the $390-$400/st level in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines continued at $360-$365/st FOB, depending on grade.

Northeast:

Potash pricing in the Northeast was pegged at $355-$365/st FOB, with the low reported at Baltimore and the high at Fairless Hills. Rail-DEL prices slipped to the $385-$400/st range in the region, down from $390-$410/st.

Eastern Canada:

Potash was steady at C$625/mt FOB regional warehouses for red granular tons in Eastern Canada. “It’s fairly quiet on potash demand as most customers have their spring needs covered 90%,” said one regional contact.

Northwest Europe:

Granular potash prices in Northwest Europe were unchanged at €355-€375/mt CIF, with small parcels transacting in the range. Some sources said activity has picked up slightly, but many continued to describe a slow market with less liquidity than normal, despite producers’ efforts to place volumes.

Southeast Asia:

Standard potash prices in the region edged up $10/mt at the high end of the range, to $295-$315/mt CFR, reflecting renewed regional momentum following a rise in prices in Brazil and increased pressure on freights originating in the Red Sea.

Granular potash offers in Thailand at $350/mt CFR continued to support the current range of $345-$355/mt CFR. Buyers are reportedly eyeing the upcoming Indian and Chinese contract settlements to better gauge price direction in the region.

India: 

January potash imports firmed 24% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 208,000 mt from 168,000 mt. Russia supplied 79,000 mt, Canada sent 58,000 mt, and Israel shipped 47,000 mt.

Thailand:      

Potash imports to Thailand totaled 131,000 mt in January-February, Trade Data Monitor reported, rising from 83,000 mt received through the same period of 2023. Canada sent 63,000 mt, followed by Laos with 28,000 mt. February imports were 60,000 mt, up 75% from 34,000 mt in February 2023.

Brazil:

Brazil potash prices were unchanged from last week’s $300-$310/mt CFR level. With inland deals reported up to a $315/mt CFR equivalent, some producers lifted offers to $330/mt CFR, though no transactions were confirmed at the higher price.

Rondonópolis potash moved higher on anticipated demand, as suppliers continued efforts to improve their margins. Deals were confirmed in the $420-$435/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, up from $410-$420/mt FOB last week, with the majority of transactions approaching the top of the range. Some suppliers are only offering forward product, with delivery closer to the planting of the next soybean crop.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

Tampa molten sulfur contracts settled at $81/lt CFR for the second quarter, a 17.4% increase from $69/lt CFR in the first quarter. The second-quarter price will take effect on April 1.

US Gulf:

US Gulf sulfur was steady in the $80-$81.50/mt FOB range, sources said.

Brazil:

Brazil import pricing continued at $111-$114/mt CFR, with new bidding reported toward the bottom of the range.

Vancouver:   

Rising freight costs pressured Vancouver netbacks to $72-$75/mt FOB, down from last week’s $77-$80/mt FOB range.

Alberta:

Alberta netbacks were unchanged at (-)$34-$11/mt FOB, and included both molten sulfur cargoes contracted into the US market and prilled tons exported through the Vancouver export market.

West Coast:

West Coast solid sulfur prices softened in line with Vancouver, to $72-$75/mt FOB, while molten sulfur contracts were valued at $50-$55/lt FOB for the first quarter. Second-quarter negotiations are ongoing, sources said.

China:

China sulfur imports moved slightly higher, to $106-$110/mt CFR from $100-$105/mt CFR at last report.

ADNOC:

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) solid sulfur postings for March were noted at $78/mt FOB Ruwais, up 13% from $69/mt FOB in February.

Qatar:

Sources put Muntajat posted prices for March at $78/mt FOB Ras Laffan, rising from February’s $69/mt FOB offer.