All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Brazil, Market Watch, South Central, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

US Imports:

Ammonium nitrate imports for April firmed 113.8% year-over-year, to 50,056 st from 23,415 st. Imports totaled 269,478 st for July-April, however, declining 4.2% from 281,357 st in the year-ago period.

US Exports:

Ammonium nitrate exports rose 35.3% in July-April, to 499,695 st from the year-ago 369,403 st. Shipments totaled 78,510 st for April, up 71.7% from 45,730 st.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate was unchanged at $400/st FOB Lamar, Mo., and $420/st FOB St. Joseph, Mo., in early June.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium nitrate pricing slipped to $420/st FOB Muskogee, Okla., for new offers, down $10/st from last report.

South Central:

The ammonium nitrate market remained under pressure in the South Central region, dropping to $300/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., and $350/st FOB river terminals in Kentucky, down $25/st from last report.

Brazil:

January-May ammonium nitrate imports totaled 322,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,up significantly from 135,000 mt received through the same point in 2022. May imports, all from Russia, were noted at 78,000 mt, rising from 63,000 mt logged in May 2022.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA ammonium sulfate barge market slipped to a nominal $300-$310/st FOB, down from last week’s $305-$315/st FOB. Sources speculated that deals could likely be had at even lower levels, but there was minimal buying interest and liquidity to test the market.

US Imports:

Ammonium sulfate imports for July-April fell 14.6%, to 666,249 st from the year-ago 780,307 st. April imports rose 18.7%, however, to 147,953 st from the prior-year 124,629 st.

Canadian imports totaled 358,879 st for July-April, ahead of 178,161 st from Belgium and 77,769 st from South Korea.

US Exports:

Ammonium sulfate exports were up 32.7% in July-April, lifting to 663,012 st from the year-ago 499,475 st. April exports punched in at 60,502 st, up 98.2% from 30,520 st recorded one year earlier.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate prices were steady at $385-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate remained at $375-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $340-$350/st FOB Houston and $360-$380/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, down from the last confirmed offers at $370-$400/st FOB in the region.

South Central:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices remained in a broad range at $330-$400/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed in Mississippi and the high in Arkansas. The Memphis market was pegged the $385/st FOB during the week.

Southeast:

The ammonium sulfate price range in the Southeast widened considerably between granular and standard tons. Granular ammonium sulfate strengthened to $415-$450/st FOB or DEL in the region, with sources reporting tight supply in early June.

Standard grade, by contrast, dropped to a low of $280/st FOB or DEL in the Florida market, well below the prior $330-$350/st FOB range.

China:   

The Indonesian tender for caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate came in at $116/mt CFR, for an estimated sub-$100/mt FOB netback to China. Sources said that while producers were not happy with this number, this is where price trends were leading.

Sources now put the market at $95-$105/mt FOB. While the market’s focus continues at the higher end of the range, price weakness is expected to continue, some said, noting that producers are increasing output at a time when demand for amsul is softening.

Brazil:   

Prices came off by $5-$15/mt, to $155-$160/mt CFR. Sources said part of the price drop stemmed from softer freight costs on tons shipped from China. At the same time, however, the price for amsul out of China has been steadily dropping.

Sources said some buyers are anticipating further drops. There were reports this week of bids in the $140s/mt CFR. No deals could be confirmed at that level, but the buyers’ aggression is an indication that no price rebound is expected anytime soon.

The price in Rondonopolis edged down to $280-$300/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said softer urea prices and an expectation of even lower amsul prices from China led to a lackluster week of dealing.

May imports totaled 186,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, falling from the year-ago 209,000 mt. China dominated the May market, sending 170,000 mt, while the Netherlands supplied the balance.

DAP/MAP

Asia, Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

DAP trucks loading from Central Florida were posted at $640/st FOB, unmoved from one week earlier. MAP postings ran $10/st below DAP at $630/st FOB, also steady from the prior report.

MAP trucks loading from North Florida continued to be posted at $650/st FOB, sources said.

US Gulf:

NOLA barge DAP values softened from week-ago levels, while MAP barges held firm.

Traders described nearby DAP barge trades concluding at a $500/st FOB low for imported tons, while barges loading June through the third quarter were heard trading as high as $452.50/st FOB. Public offers reported edging to $449.50/st FOB on June 8 were met with $445/st FOB bids, sources said.

Domestically-produced DAP was quoted changing hands at $462/st FOB for full-June, below last week’s $500/st FOB high, while pricing for loaded barges was rumored up to $500/st FOB and as low as $445/st FOB went unconfirmed on June 8.

Domestic MAP barges traded at $470/st FOB, sources said, unchanged from the week-ago top, while players continued to note price ideas for imported material even with last week’s $450/st FOB level. Sources on June 8 were unable to confirm a rumored $449/st FOB trade. Expectations of increased countervailing duties on MAP cargoes shipped by some Russian producers continued to fuel rumors of US Gulf-bound cargoes being diverted to Brazil.

Domestic producers noted indications for NOLA DAP and MAP barges at $500/st FOB “for remaining June and July” availability.

Based on reported trades and offers, DAP barges pushed to $449.50-$462/st FOB from the prior $450-$500/st FOB. NOLA MAP pricing was called $450-$470/st FOB, unchanged from the prior week.

US Imports:

DAP imports totaled 2,421 st for April, off 18.6% from the year-ago 2,973 st. July-April volumes were 747,815 st, falling 22.0% from 958,873 st in the prior-year period.

Imports from Saudi Arabia were reported at 442,230 st for July-April, while tonnage from Australia totaled 119,060 st. Tunisia sent 74,957 st, followed by 60,616 st from Jordan.

April MAP/Other imports were 3,290 st, down 94.1% from the year-ago 56,223 st. July-February volumes fell 7.0%, to 707,770 st from the prior 760,900 st.

Russian cargoes were recorded at 280,268 st in the July-April period, topping both 211,091 st from Saudi Arabia and 102,962 st from Australia. Mexico sent 88,121 st.

US Exports:

DAP exports softened 40.2% in April, to 40,343 st from the year-ago 67,479 st. Exports were counted at 633,291 st for July-April, however, 8.0% above the year-ago 586,260 st.

July-April MAP/Other exports totaled 1.82 million st, off 7.6% from the year-ago 1.97 million st. April imports fell 4.9%, to 219,961 st from the prior-year 231,223 st.

Mosaic will send a 50,000 mt cargo to Mosaic India from the US Gulf in June, the company confirmed. The tons were slated to load from Tampa in the second half of the month. No pricing was reported for the vessel.

With no new values noted for the week, the US Gulf export phosphate markets continued at the week-ago $520/mt FOB level.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP slipped to a broad $580-$655/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down significantly from last week’s $640-$690/st, with the low reported in Illinois and the high confirmed at Cincinnati. MAP fell to a tighter range at $580-$605/st FOB in the region, also down sharply from the prior $670-$680/st FOB range, with no MAP tons reportedly available at Cincinnati during the week.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP dropped to $560-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down significantly from the previous $625-$680/st range, with the St. Louis market quoted at $575-$585/st FOB during the week. MAP was pegged at $580-$605/st FOB in the region, with the St. Louis pricing reported at the upper end of the range for limited tons.

Southern Plains:

DAP was quoted in a broad range at $600-$660/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, depending on supplier and time of the week, with MAP pegged in a much tighter range at $615-$650/st FOB at the port. The Houston market was reported at $670/st FOB for DAP and $685/st FOB for MAP.

South Central:

DAP remained at $680-$700/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low at Memphis and the high in Arkansas. Kentucky sources said most Ohio River terminals were out of product during the week.

Southeast:

MAP pricing from Nutrien remained at $650/st FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla.

China:   

Chinese DAP producers are prepared to dig in their heels at $470/mt FOB, sources said. While calculations from the National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL)/India DAP tender showed a netback of $460-$465/mt FOB to China, a number of other deals have reportedly come in at the $470/mt level, allowing producers to claim that as the top of the range.

Sources attributed the producers’ confidence that they can hold the line on prices to reports they have received several requests for tons in June. The demand for prompt shipments appears to be just strong enough to offer support to the producers.

In addition to the NFL tender, sources reported that Thailand purchased a cargo for less than $470/mt FOB. Repeated reports that some producers are allowing sales beneath their targeted level undermines their efforts to prevent a slide in prices, said one observer.

India:     

The lowest offer in the NFL DAP tender reportedly came in at $480/mt CFR, for an estimated netback to China of $460-$465/mt FOB. Sources said Russian tons were also included in the tender offers. No awards have been reported.

Brazil:   

The landed price of MAP edged down to $440-$470/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range reportedly dominated by Chinese MAP.

The Rondonopolis market was pegged at $600-$610/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said the large reserves on hand, along with lackluster buying interest, indicated that further price drops are coming.

January-May MAP imports firmed 27% year-over-year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 2 million mt from 1.6 million mt. May imports stood at 395,000 mt, off 37% from 629,000 mt in the previous May. Russia sent 146,000 mt for the month, followed by Morocco with 122,000 mt. Saudi Arabia sent 89,000 mt.

Afghanistan:

A private sector consignment of 20,000 tons of DAP has been sent from Pakistan’s Gwadar Port to Afghanistan, the Daily Times reported on June 5. The DAP was imported from Australia under the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement by KB Fertilizer and Agven Pvt Ltd., both operating in the Gwadar Free Zone (South).

In 2022, Gwadar Port processed a private sector consignment of 8,000 tons of DAP and transported it by road to Afghanistan, marking the first Afghanistan-bound fertilizer shipment.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

TSP barges loading from NOLA were reported at $390-$400/st FOB, off from $400-$410/st FOB noted one week earlier.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $600-$620/st FOB for the last confirmed offers in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $550-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis.

South Central:

TSP pricing tightened to $605-$615/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low at Memphis and the upper end out of Arkansas River terminals.

Brazil:   

The price of TSP came off about $10/mt from last week’s level, to $340-$350/mt CFR.

The Rondonopolis market was steady at $485-$510/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Despite the respite, sources expect to see further TSP price declines ahead.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:   

Prices slid $5/mt from the previous week, to $155-$175/mt CFR. Rondonopolis was also down, to $300-$320/mt FOB ex-warehouse. SSP-21 showed prices at $300-$310/mt FOB, while SSP-19 was pegged at $315-$320/mt FOB.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Phosphoric Acid, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, Western Cornbelt

US Exports:               

Wet-process phosphoric acid exports moved down 73.7% in April, to 11,261 st from 42,835 st in April 2022. July-April exports firmed 14.3%, however, to 262,949 st from the year-ago 229,994 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

June phosphoric acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt dropped to $9.50/unit rail-DEL, well below May’s $14.00/unit rail-DEL posting.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid dropped to $9.50/unit rail-DEL for June tons in the Western Cornbelt, down from last month’s $14.00/unit rail-DEL price.

Southern Plains:

The phos acid market dropped to $9.50/unit rail-DEL in the Southern Plains for June tons, down significantly from May’s $14.00/unit rail-DEL posting.

India:

Nothing new was reported on the India phosphoric acid market. Second-quarter contracts continued at $970/mt P2O5 CFR, down $80/mt from $1,050/mt P2O5 CFR in the first quarter.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was steady at $675-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high reported out of inland terminals in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was steady at $655-$675/st FOB for the last confirmed offers in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.

Southern Plains:

10-34-0 remained at $605-$630/st FOB in the Southern Plains for the last confirmed business, with the 11-37-0 market quoted in the low- to mid-$700s/st FOB in Texas. Sources said both should drop sharply based on the lower ammonia and phos acid prices.

Muriate of Potash

Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Potash Muriate, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA potash barges remained at $380-$400/st FOB, with no new trades confirmed to test the market. Sources said the industry is awaiting the launch of summer fill programs later this month.

US Imports:

Potash imports for April moved 19.2% higher year-over-year, to 1.34 million st from 1.12 million st. July-April exports softened 10.1%, however, to 10.11 million st from 11.25 million st in the prior July-April.

July-April imports from Canada were noted at 8.91 million st. Russia added 847,567 st, and Israel shipped 274,012 st.

US Exports:

April potash exports moved 5.3% lower, to 383,422 st from 405,024 st in April 2022. July-April totals were down 4.5% year-over-year, slipping to 3.13 million st from 3.28 million st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash slipped to $420-$440/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from $435-$460/st, with the Cincinnati market quoted at $420-$430/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash pricing dropped to $420-$440/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported at $420-$425/st FOB for the latest offers.

Southern Plains:

Potash pricing ranged broadly at $430-$470/st FOB Catoosa/Inola in early June, with the Houston market pegged at the $480/st FOB level. The last potash postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $515/st for 60% white granular and $525/st for 62% white standard.

South Central:

South Central potash pricing was reported in the $440-$465/st FOB range in early June, with the low out of river terminals in Kentucky and the high in Arkansas. The Memphis potash market was pegged at the $460/st FOB level at midweek.

Southeast:

Potash pricing dropped to $440/st FOB Wilmington, down from the prior $460/st FOB level, with rail-DEL tons pegged in the $465-$475/st range in the Southeast.

China:

Canpotex on June 6 confirmed that it has agreed to a potash supply contract with China for shipments through Dec. 31, 2023, at $307/mt CFR. The price is down 48% from the $590/mt CFR agreement that Canpotex concluded last year with China, and is also well under the $422/mt CFR contract inked with India in April (GM April 7, p. 14).

“China is an important market for Canpotex, and we’re pleased to reach an agreement with China’s potash buying committee,” said Gordon McKenzie, Canpotex President and CEO. “We look forward to continuing our support of food security in China by providing our customers there with a reliable and stable supply of potash as China’s agriculture sector continues to grow.”

The contract “sends a signal to the market that the potash price bottom is in,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Joel Jackson said in a June 6 note, cited by Bloomberg. He viewed the announcement as “positive,” given market concerns of Chinese buyers deferring contracts this year, considering spring demand was over.

Bangladesh:

Bangladesh is slated to import 180,000 mt of Russian standard potash under a government-to-government deal for the fiscal year running from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024.

Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corp. (BADC) and Prodintorg, a Russian state-owned corporation, signed the deal on June 1 in Moscow, according to the Bangladesh Post, which cited a Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture media release.

Brazil:   

The dockside potash price tightened on the upper end, to $330-$350/mt CFR. Sources also reported some aggressive buyers bidding and claiming deals done at $310-$320/mt CFR. While there was no confirmation of these deals, the low prices were not a surprise to sources. The potash market has been seeking a price floor for some time without success.

Sources had hoped the China potash deal would provide a signal that it was time for a market correction. Unfortunately for sellers, the market appears to have taken no notice of the deal, and continues to show price softness.

The Rondonopolis market was pegged at $420-$450/mt FOB ex-warehouse, marking a drop of $30/mt from last week. Sources said the lower end of the range is dominated by material from Belarus.

Brazil potash imports totaled 4.8 million mt January-May, Trade Data Monitor reported, down 9.5% from the year-ago 5.3 million mt. May imports of 1.3 million mt represented a 13% decline from 1.5 million mt received in May 2022. Canada supplied 578,000 mt for the month, followed by Russia with 394,000 mt. Belarus sent 115,000 mt, up markedly from 80,000 mt recorded in May 2022.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

The second-quarter contract price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa closed at $103/lt CFR, $27/lt below the last-quarter value of $130/lt, a 20.8% decrease in price. Some players described the current $103/lt CFR contract price as high compared to the spot market.

US Imports:

July-April sulfur imports softened 13.2% year-over-year, to 2.33 million st from 2.69 million st. April imports were 243,030 st, however, up 24.0% from the year-ago 195,922 million st.

US Exports:

Sulfur exports for April softened 13.9% year-over-year, to 161,747 st from 187,885 st. July-April shipments were 35.7% higher, however, at 1.82 million st compared to the year-ago 1.34 million st.

US Gulf:

Multiple sources reported both an absence of demand and a buildup of inventory during the last few weeks. The US Gulf price was assessed in the $60-$70/mt FOB range, $15/mt below last week’s $75-$85/mt FOB, a nearly 20% week-over-week decline.

Brazil:

Sources reported no changes in Brazil spot pricing, calling the market $105-$115/mt CFR. Market watchers noted a lack of demand and a well-supplied market, while logistics remain constrained due to ongoing port terminal maintenance. The next round of demand is expected for August arrival.

Vancouver:   

Vancouver prices continued in the $80-$85/mt FOB range, unchanged from last week.

Alberta:

Based on both molten sulfur cargoes contracted into the US market and prilled tons sold through the Vancouver export market, Alberta sulfur netbacks were estimated around (-)$12-$33/mt FOB, unchanged from one week earlier.

West Coast:

West Coast prills were indicated on par with Vancouver in the $80-$85/mt FOB range, steady from last report.

Molten sulfur contracts for loading in the second quarter were reported at $98-$106/lt FOB, falling from $125-$135/lt FOB in the prior period.

China:     

There were no changes reported at China, leaving the spot sulfur price at $105-$110/mt CFR. Market watchers described a lack of interest from buyers, building phosphate inventories, and increasing sulfur inventories at ports, all mixed with a steep decline in global phosphate prices.

ADNOC:

Prilled sulfur produced by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) was posted at $86/mt FOB Ruwais for loading in June. As with product from Qatar, buyers reported a possible $10/mt discount available on firm interest.

Qatar:

June Muntajat solid sulfur cargoes were posted at $86/mt FOB Ras Laffan, unchanged from May. A $10/mt discount from the posted price might be attainable on firm interest, some players said.