Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report no current pricing offers for 10-34-0 in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt:
The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $815-$825/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the high confirmed in Iowa for spring prepay.
Southern Plains:
The 10-34-0 market was steady at $790-$795/st FOB for spring tons in the Southern Plains. The 11-37-0 market in Texas was quoted at a firm $840-$870/st FOB for the last offers, with the low reported at Houston.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barges were reported at $645-$665/st FOB, up from the week-ago $635-$655/st FOB. There were reports that some sellers pulled their pricing once the Russia/Ukraine news broke.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash pricing was quoted at $705-$725/st FOB for prompt tons in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low reported at Cincinnati. The Ottawa market was pegged at the $710/st FOB level for prompt tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing was unchanged at $690-$720/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market confirmed in the $690-$705/st FOB range.
Southern Plains:
Potash pricing was pegged at $685-$700/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and $695/st FOB Houston in late February.
Intrepid on Feb. 18 confirmed a $25/st increase for prompt and forward business. New postings at Carlsbad, N.M., include $805/st FOB for 60 percent white granular and $825/st FOB for 62 percent white standard, with new list prices at Moab and Wendover, Utah, firming to $800/st for 60 percent white standard and $805/st for 60 percent white granular.
South Central:
The potash market was quoted at $710-$730/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, up slightly from last report, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high at Shreveport. Potash pricing at Little Rock was pegged at the $715/st FOB level in late February.
Southeast:
Potash pricing was pegged at $710-$730/st FOB port terminals in the Southeast, with reports of rail-DEL offers in the $738-$760/st range from Canadian suppliers. In the Northeast, new pricing offers FOB Fairless Hills were reported at $710/st for February, $715/st for March, and $725/st for 2Q.
India:
There were no new announcements this week of further supply contracts following last week’s agreements between Canpotex, ICL, and Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) for potash deliveries this year at a price of $590/mt CFR with 180 days’ credit (GM Feb. 18, p. 14).
Reports were circulating earlier this month that IPL is in talks to buy 1 million mt of potash from Belarus in 2022 by paying with rupees (GM Feb. 4, p. 1). The Indian buyer has now asked BPC to disclose which ports it will use for shipments before it will sign a new potash supply deal with the company this year, according to a Bloomberg report late last week, citing an unnamed source familiar with the matter.
No awards have been heard under RC’s tender for the supply of 170,000 mt of standard potash that closed on Jan. 28 (GM Feb. 4, p. 15) or under FACT’s tender for two 40,000 mt lots of standard potash for delivery to Tuticorin port in March and April (GM Feb. 11, p. 16). FACT’s tender originally was set to close on Feb. 14, but was subsequently extended to Feb. 21.
As previously reported, National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) on March 21 will close a Request for Proposal (RFP) for entering into a long-term agreement/MOU with producers of potash for the supply of 200,000 mt of standard pink/red potash(GM Feb. 18, p. 15).
Brazil:
Upward pressure on MOP prices was felt all week. Sources put the price at $780-$820/mt CFR before the Russian invasion of Ukraine stopped trading.
The deals that were done showed an interest in buyers to pick up what tons they could now rather than face even higher prices later. The initial concern stemmed from the Belarus force majeure declaration after Lithuania no longer allowed Belarus potash suppliers to transit their country or to use the Lithuanian ports for exports.
The same issue played out in Rondonopolis as prices tightened to $910-$926/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Brazilian buyers are keeping a keen eye on Belarus and Russia. In 2021, Brazil reported imports of 2.4 million mt from Belarus and 3.6 million mt from Russia. The combined total represented about 48 percent of all of Brazil’s potash imports.
While Russian MOP was not included in the sanctions announced this week by the U.S. and its allies, Belarussian tons will be sanctioned beginning April 1.
Russia:
Russian exports of MOP in 2021 were reported at 11.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is up 24 percent from the 9.5 million mt exported in 2020.
The main buyers last year were Brazil with 3.6 million mt, representing 30 percent of Russian exports, and China with 2.6 million mt, representing 22 percent of exports. The U.S. took 1 million mt of MOP, accounting for 9 percent of exports.
Tampa:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 layered a curtain of uncertainty over the U.S. sulfur markets, sources indicated, leading many to predict increasing values in the weeks ahead.
While non-Asian markets largely stood pat during the week, some speculated that a confluence of pre-invasion price increases, rising international supply uncertainty, and both planned and unplanned refinery outages in the U.S. Gulf could push Tampa to a sizable increase in the second-quarter contract.
First-quarter Tampa molten contracts were negotiated at $282/lt CFR, up $99/lt from $183/lt CFR in the prior period.
Refining capacity in the U.S. moved up for the week ending Feb. 18, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as refinery production in the Gulf and Midwest showed signs of recovery from Winter Storm Landon.
Utilization was reported at 87.4 percent of nationwide capacity for the period, a 2.1-point increase from the previous week’s 85.3 percent. The rate topped both the year-ago 68.6 percent and the 84.2 percent five-year average.
Daily crude inputs were also higher, bouncing above the 15 million barrel/d mark to an average 15.246 million barrels/d for the week, up 344,000 barrels/d from the 14.902 million barrels/d total posted one week earlier.
U.S. Gulf:
A Feb. 21 hydrocracker explosion at the 578,000 barrel/d Marathon Garyville, La., refinery injured five and sparked a 4-5 hour fire, Reuters reported. Despite heavy emissions observed at the time of the event, Genscape reported no immediate unit shutdowns in the wake of the event, although a 114,000 barrel/d hydrocracker and a 35,000 barrel/d coker on turnaround since Feb. 8 remained offline. Prior to the explosion, a catalytic reformer and a naphtha hydrotreater were reported restarting on Feb. 20.
Valero on Feb. 18 suffered the shutdown of a 96,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) and a 22,000 barrel/d alkylation unit at the company’s Corpus Christi (West), Texas, facility. Both units at the 192,000 barrel/d plant were restarted on the evening of Feb. 19.
A 116,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU) was restarted on Feb. 18 at the Chevron refinery in Pasadena, Texas, after going offline on Feb. 5 due to a boiler malfunction.
The Marathon Galveston Bay, Texas, refinery successfully restarted production at the plant’s 145,000 barrel/d FCCU3 FCC on Feb. 19, and followed with a restart of the 78,000 barrel/d Ultraformer 3 catalytic reforming unit on Feb. 20. The 128,000 barrel/d Pipestill 3A vacuum distillation unit (VDU) was powered down on Feb. 22. Operations were completely halted at the plant on Feb. 4 due to extreme cold.
Marathon shut a 72,000 barrel/d CDU and a 17,000 barrel/d VDU at its El Paso, Texas, plant on Feb. 21.
The TotalEnergies Port Arthur, Texas, refinery restarted the 80,000 barrel/d ACU-2 crude section on the morning of Feb. 22. The unit was reported going offline on Feb. 19.
Members of the United Steelworkers (USW) local 13-243 union voted on Feb. 21 to ratify a new employment contract at the 369,000 barrel/d ExxonMobil Corp. refinery at Beaumont, Texas, Reuters reported, ending a nearly 10-month lockout. As of Feb. 21, no date had been determined for a return to work.
Pricing continued to be reported at $300-$305/mt FOB out of the Gulf, unmoved from one week earlier. The range included a 10,000 mt prilled sulfur load reported at $302/mt FOB, destined for a Pacific port in Latin America.
Brazil:
Last-done at Brazil continued to be reported in the $357-$360/mt CFR range, steady from the prior report.
Vancouver:
Vancouver values were reported lifting to $320-$340/mt FOB following increases at China. Levels were last noted in the $300-$305/mt FOB range.
Alberta:
Rising values at Vancouver lifted Alberta netbacks to an indicated $167-$270/mt FOB, up from $167-$235/mt FOB reported previously.
West Coast:
West Coast prill indications followed Vancouver to a general $320-$340/mt FOB range. Sources tagged first-quarter molten sulfur contracts at $230-$245/lt FOB.
China:
China was noted reentering the spot import sulfur market for the first time since the country’s Feb. 1 Lunar New Year holiday, with players calling the updated market at $360-$370/mt CFR, up from $335/mt CFR reported previously.
ADNOC:
February Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. offers were quoted at $320/mt FOB Ruwais, up $20/mt from $300/mt FOB in the prior month.
Qatar:
Qatar prills were reportedly offered at $315/mt FOB Ras Laffan for loading in February, an increase of $14/mt from January’s $301/mt FOB level.
Kuwait:
Sulfur loading from Kuwait was noted at $315/mt FOB for the February period, up $15/mt from $300/mt FOB reported one month earlier.
U.S. Gulf:
U.S. Gulf sulfuric acid import pricing continued to be heard at $255-$260/mt CFR.
Gulf Coast:
Sulfuric acid delivered to the Gulf Coast was quoted in the $195-$230/st DEL range for 2022 contracts.
Midwest:
Annual Midwest sulacid agreements were noted on par with the Gulf at $195-$230/st DEL.
West Coast:
West Coast contracts were reported in the $185-$220/st DEL range for 2022.
Brazil:
Recent Brazil import pricing continued in the $270-$275/mt CFR range, players said, steady from the prior report.
New Orleans granular urea prices shot up as high as $705/st FOB after news broke of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The week-ago range had been $525-$545/st FOB.
Egyptian prices rose as high as $730/mt FOB from the week-ago $550-$555/mt FOB. Some other fertilizer prices rose as well, however, some remained in place as players opted to wait and see what would happen and others pulled price lists off the market.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Feb. 24 warned fertilizer companies and other farm suppliers against taking “unfair advantage” of the Ukraine conflict and said his department would be watching for unjustified price increases, according to Bloomberg.
He told reporters the USDA will make sure companies “don’t use this situation as an excuse for doing something that isn’t necessarily justified by supply and demand. That’s my biggest and deepest concern, and we’re obviously going to continue to keep an eye on that.”
Vilsack added that while it’s “too early” to assess the impact of the conflict on global agricultural markets, he doesn’t expect the crisis to add to food inflation for U.S. consumers.
In addition, Iowa’s Attorney General Miller is investigating high fertilizer prices and said he has the support of eight other state attorney generals, according to the Associated Press. He said he also had conversations with the leaders of the Iowa Soybean Association and Secretary Vilsack, who is a former Iowa governor, and sent letters to the top executives of five major global fertilizer companies. “I have this sinking feeling that we’re paying a price for allowing so few competitors in the ag area and in many other markets,” he said.
Product from the Black Sea appeared to be the major casualty, as those ports closed early in the conflict, halting exports. Indeed, vessels in the area reported damage from the conflict.
A chemical tanker, Millennial Spirit, was hit by a shell in neutral waters, with the crew abandoning ship after a fire broke out, according to Bloomberg, which also reported that Cargill Inc. confirmed that one of its chartered vessels was hit in Ukrainian waters and was sailing to Romania to make repairs. The crew was reported to be safe and accounted for.
While many major commodity prices spiked on Feb. 24, European gas dropped on Feb. 25 after it appeared that western sanctions would not cripple Russia’s ability to sell energy and other commodities.
Russia is a low-cost producer of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. 2021 ammonia exports were put at 4.4 million mt, urea 7 million mt, DAP 1.3 million mt, and potash 11.8 million, according to Trade Data Monitor, which put major Ukraine exports at 370,000 mt for ammonia, 1.29 million mt urea, and 1.1 million mt UAN.
In UAN markets, Russia’s military incursion has triggered supply concerns in a market that is already tight. Belarus UAN exports are already out of the market due to sanctions.
Russia exported 1.8 million mt of UAN last year, but Russian producers – EuroChem AG and Acron Group – have fewer outlets for their product, as E.U. and possible U.S. duties restrict trade. Three-quarters of Russia’s UAN exports now go to the U.S. France’s imports of Russian UAN have declined since 2019, when the E.U. levied anti-dumping duties on Russia of €42.47 per mt.
Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of potash. With global potash markets already rocked by Belarus product effectively out of the market, and with already soaring global potash prices, (GM Feb. 18, p. 1), any sanctions implemented on Russian exports of potash, and an absence of the supplier from the market – partial or completely – would likely be immediately felt, causing global potash price rises to accelerate still further.
By Friday morning, Russia’s Vladimir Putin was reportedly open to sending a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine, according to a Bloomberg report. Earlier, China’s leader Xi Jinping told Putin that Moscow should negotiate with the government in Kyiv.
Moscow-led forces continued attacks on military and civilian targets on the second day of their invasion after the U.S. and its allies imposed new sanctions on Moscow, and U.S. President Joe Biden warned of “a dangerous moment for all of Europe.”
European Union leaders backed a broad sanctions package late Thursday that they said will limit Russia’s access to Europe’s financial sector and restrict key technologies. Leaders from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will hold virtual talks on the alliance’s next steps starting at 3 p.m. in Brussels on Feb. 25.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine’s military had so far prevented Russia from achieving its objectives. “Russia will have to talk to us sooner or later, talk about how to end the fighting and stop this invasion,” Zelenskiy said in a morning address. “The sooner this conversation begins, the smaller the losses to Russia itself.”
Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL), India’s biggest potash importer, has asked JSC Belarusian Potash Co. (BPC) to disclose which ports it will use for shipments before it will sign a new potash supply deal with the company this year, according to a Bloomberg report, citing an unnamed source familiar with the matter.
Reports were circulating early this month that IPL is in talks to buy 1 million mt of potash from Belarus in 2022 by paying with rupees, according to a Reuters, citing two unidentified Indian officials (GM Feb. 4, p. 1). Sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union (E.U.) on Belarus restrict Belarus’ potash trade in U.S. dollars and euros.
Late last week, Russia was reported to be planning to start rail shipments of fertilizers from Belarus this year, according to an Interfax report, citing Russian Deputy Transport Minister Dmitry Zverev (GM Feb. 18, p. 1). According to the minister, it will be possible to receive an additional 2.15 million mt for the Russian railways and the same volumes for the ports this year.
Belarusian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei earlier that week had claimed agreements had been reached with Russia for Belarus to use Russian ports for the transshipment of potash and other Belarusian cargo, according to a BelTA report.
But like Russia’s Deputy Transport Minister, Makei did not specify through which Russian ports Belarusian potash would be shipped. Previous statements coming out of Belarus have cited the port of St. Petersburg and ports in Russia’s Leningrad region, as well as the port of Murmansk. Leningrad region ports include the Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
Belarus’ ability to rail potash via Lithuanian railways for export via the Lithuanian port of Klaipėda was halted from midnight on Jan. 31, following the Lithuanian government’s decision to terminate Lithuanian state-owned railway Lietuvos Geležinkeliai’s (LTG) contract to transport Belarusian potash due to “national security concerns” (GM Jan. 14, p. 1; Feb. 11, p. 1).
The move effectively blocked the export shipment of around 90 percent of Belarus’ potash, and BPC last week notified its customers that Belarus producer Belaruskali OAO on Feb. 16 told the company that force majeure conditions were forced upon it after it could not find alternatives to railing product to the Lithuanian port of Klaipėda, according to reliable sources, citing a notice from BPC.
“India’s logistical concerns show that key Asian markets may also be affected by U.S. sanctions,” said Moscow-based VTB Capital analyst Elena Sakhnova, as cited by the Bloomberg report. “Russian ports may handle the volumes instead of Lithuania, but given the sanctions risk, it is not yet clear if it will happen.”
There were reports late last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the building of a new port near St. Petersburg to handle Belarusian potash shipments, according to a Bloomberg report, citing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a televised joint news conference in Moscow on Feb. 18. According to Lukashenko, Belarus expects to start loading “millions” of tons of cargo at the new port within 12-18 months.
Separately, according to this week’s Bloomberg report, citing the undisclosed source, IPL is negotiating with Russian banks to accept payment in rupees and transfer rupees to BPC for the last 300,000 mt of the 800,000 mt of potash deliveries under their 2021 annual contract agreement.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was quoted at $600-$645/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported in Illinois. The last offers FOB Cincinnati were pegged at $630-$645/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
The last confirmed ammonium thiosulfate business remained at the $600/st FOB level in the Iowa market.
Southern Plains:
The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at a firm $500/st FOB Houston, unchanged from last report.
South Central:
The ammonium thiosulfate market was pegged at $540-$545/st FOB Memphis, up $5/st from last report.
Cornbelt:
The last confirmed pricing for NPSZ remained at $810-$835/st FOB in the Cornbelt, depending on location, but sources expect significantly higher near-term prices as the DAP and MAP markets ramp up.
Southeast:
The SOP market in the Southeast was unchanged at $925-$930/st FOB in the Florida market.
Southern Plains:
Intrepid’s Trio postings FOB Carlsbad remained at $445/st for standard, $480/st for granular, $505/st for premium, $520/st for OMRI standard and fine standard, and $555/st for OMRI granular.
