All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

European Energy Prices Soar

Europe, Featured, News, Russia

European gas and electricity prices soared on Feb. 24 after Russian forces launched an early morning military attack on Ukraine on multiple fronts.

The benchmark Dutch TTF gas futures rose over 50 percent, the biggest gain since late summer 2019, with the front-month (currently March) contract reaching €133.555 per megawatt-hour in late afternoon before closing lower at €118.505 per megawatt-hour, a 33 percent advance on the day.

European gas prices have been jittery throughout the week amid rising tensions concerning Ukraine. However, gas prices dropped on Feb. 25 after it appeared that western sanctions would not cripple Russia’s ability to sell energy and other commodities.

Russia’s invasion has triggered one of the worst security crises in Europe since World War II, and puts gas supplies in Europe, which is already suffering a major energy crunch, at further risk. The continent depends on Russia for around 40 percent of its gas supply, and low inventories in the region’s storage facilities, as well as reduced flows from Russian supplier state-owned Gazprom PJSC since the second half of last year, have sent prices to record levels over the past 12 months.

Russia said on Feb. 22 it aims to keep its gas supplies abroad “uninterrupted,” according to a Bloomberg report citing Russia’s Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov. But according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyon, speaking at a conference of security-focused energy policy makers on Feb. 19, as cited by a Washington Post article, Gazprom was delivering “the bare minimum” of gas to Europe this winter.

Gazprom reported on Feb. 24 that its gas flows to Europe via Ukraine were “normal.” Ukraine’s gas transit operator also said earlier in the day it was operating normally and there had been no accidents as of 10 a.m. local time, according to the report.

Austrian oil refiner OMV AG, and majority owner of Austrian polyolefins and fertilizers major Borealis AG, said on Feb. 24 that supplies of natural gas from Russia have continued in line with the company’s contracts with Gazprom.

But Bloomberg cited a professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, Thierry Bros, as saying on Feb. 24 that Europe has to be prepared for Russian gas to flow only to selected E.U. countries, which, he said, would put further stress on the energy side as well as the diplomatic side.

Yara International ASA told Green Markets on Feb. 24 it had made no decision to close plants. “High prices and high volatility have been a challenge for the food industry in Europe in recent months, a situation which in turn negatively impacts global food security. The events currently unfolding in Ukraine are already further impacting market developments for fertilizers, food, and a number of raw materials linked to these,” a spokesperson for the company said.

She said given “the high uncertainty and complexity” of the situation, it is too early for the company to assess the overall impact on its operation and industry.

“But it is clear that this situation will put further pressure on an already strained food system,” the spokesperson said.

However, Yara said it would do “its utmost” to maintain supply to its customers, and to avoid a further escalating food crisis in the world.

According to sources speaking with Green Markets on Feb. 24, the new break-even production cost for ammonia in Europe is up to $1,200/mt due to the gas price increase, which is put at $900/mt during the last couple of weeks. It is worth noting that gas currently being used by ammonia producers in Europe is based on prices from a few weeks ago, when gas prices were lower. Most participants expect to see higher gas prices “seriously” affect the industry by mid-March at the latest.

Germany earlier this week suspended its certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that runs between Russia and Germany – completed in December – and would ship Russian gas directly to Europe. The U.S. on Feb. 23 added the project to its sanctions on Russia.

According to Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, speaking on Feb. 24, as cited by Bloomberg, the pipeline is unlikely to start “in the medium term” because of the Russian military attack on Ukraine.

After years of European dependence on Russian energy, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is forcing a change in E.U. strategy, driving the bloc to make plans for a permanent break from Russian oil and gas supplies, according to a Washington Post article, citing European policymakers.

The strategy to split from Russian energy, which aims to accelerate a move to renewable energy, is expected to be announced by the European Commission next week. However, it likely would take years to implement.

Minister Questions Borealis/EuroChem Deal

Austria, News, News Briefs, Russia, Ukraine

OMV AG’s Borealis unit should reconsider talks with EuroChem AG on selling its fertilizer business (GM Feb. 4, p. 1) after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Economy Minister for Upper Austria Markus Achleitner told Oberoesterreichische Nachrichten, according to a Bloomberg report.

“In light of these terrible acts, everything is up for review. That’s why this merger needs to be questioned,” said Achleitner. The Switzerland-based EuroChem is controlled by Russian billionaire Andrey Melnichenko.

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Northwestern Europe, South Central, Southern Plains, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

The industry continued to await news of new business at Tampa for March. February was $1,135/mt CFR. The recent trend has been for the business to be done a week or so before the new month starts. The delay could mean negotiations were more intense.

Going into Thursday, most players were predicting a rollover in price or a relatively small move in either direction. With the Russia/Ukraine news, however, price ideas may have changed. Another factor could now be the 6-8 week repair time for the Waggaman plant in Louisiana.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonia market inched up to $1,360-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment. Most prepay offers in Illinois and Indiana were quoted in the $1,375-$1,385/st FOB range, with prepay business also reported at $1,375/st FOB North Bend, Ohio. The Lima, Ohio, ammonia market was referenced at $1,400/st FOB for prompt or prepay.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia pricing remained at $1,350-$1,395/st FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the bulk of spring prepay offers pegged in the $1,365-$1,395/st FOB range in the region.

Southern Plains:

The ammonia market was steady at $1,250-$1,300/st FOB production points in the Southern Plains for prompt or prepay, with the low at Verdigris and Pryor, Okla., and the upper end reported at Coffeyville, Kan. The last offers FOB Enid, Okla., were pegged at the $1,275/st FOB level for 1Q and spring tons, while prompt truck tons at Beaumont, Texas, were quoted at $1,060/st FOB.

South Central:

Sources reported truck offers for ammonia circulating at $1,100-$1,200/st FOB in the South Central region, with the high at Cherokee, Ala. There were reports as well of very limited truck tons available at $1,150/st FOB Midway, Tenn., at mid-month.

The truck market out of Gulf Coast production facilities was quoted up to $1,060-$1,080/st FOB, depending on location.

Black Sea:

The invasion of Ukraine forced the closing of all of that country’s ports on the Black Sea. The closures ended any sales that might have come from the area. No price is available from the region.

If the closures last longer than a week, sources said the market could face a major hit in ammonia supplies. The loss of ammonia from TOAZ and Rossosh alone could lead to a loss of at least 200,000 mt/month. International traders said the uncertainty that is normal at the early stages of a major upheaval needs to be addressed with patience.

In the immediate aftermath of the invasion, it appears the sanctions threatened by the U.S. and Western European countries do not include Russian ammonia or other fertilizer exports. Likewise, for now, the sanctions seemed to avoid penalizing the natural gas suppliers.

Prior to the invasion, market players were predicting a softening of prices. The actions taken by Russia, however, have changed the outlook. Sources said when the Yuzhnyy ports re-open the asking price for spot tons will most likely be higher than the pre-invasion levels of $1,100-$1,250/mt FOB.

Even before Russian tanks rolled across the border, sources said major buyers such as Turkey and Morocco were scouting out other possible suppliers. Reportedly, the buyers approached producers in Egypt, Libya, Algeria, and Iran. Some talks were said to have started with Arab Gulf producers as well, but the lack of any extra tons in that area made any large deals look unlikely.

Sources said even with a range of alternative places, those tons combined could not replace the tonnage lost from the Black Sea.

Russian ammonia exports for 2021 were reported at 4.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is a 6 percent increase from 2020 exports of 4.2 million mt.

A bit more than 1.6 million mt were shipped through Ukraine and Estonia. These tons were usually re-exported from ports in the Black or Baltic Seas. Morocco took 558,000 mt, or about 15.7 percent of all Russian exports in 2021. Turkey was also a major buyer at 510,000 mt, for 11.5 percent of ammonia sales.

Middle East:

The tightness of the market became firmer following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even before the invasion, Arab Gulf producers were rebuffing requests for spot tons. The lack of any new spot deals leaves the price at $800-$850/mt FOB, but with an upward trend perceived in the talks among buyers and sellers.

Reportedly, some of the major buyers of Black Sea ammonia approached Arab Gulf producers. The lack of any extra material left the potential buyers leaving empty-handed. Sources added that even as the search for more tons intensified, the Arab producers showed no indication of being willing to investigate ways to step-up production.

Sources said some potential buyers have looked to Iran in hopes of securing extra ammonia from that country, despite the sanctions placed on it by the U.S. Reportedly, there were rumors that an exemption might be granted if the American and European action against Russia included sanctions on ammonia and urea. In the end, however, the sanctions did not include those products.

Iran shipped 541,000 mt of ammonia to foreign buyers in 2021. While down from 2020 by about 14 percent, the exports supplied a vital product to buyers looking for a bargain and who were willing to maneuver around the American sanctions. India was the major buyer, taking 68 percent of all Iranian ammonia exports last year, or 367,000 mt.

Northwest Europe:

Late last week sources were reporting that prices would slip to $1,000/mt C&F and below. Following the closure of the Black Sea ports and the rise in natural gas prices, however, any price reduction went out the window.

Sources said the production cost of a ton of ammonia went up from $900/mt in the past couple of weeks to $1,200/mt this week. The current price of $1,180-$1,250/mt C&F is expected to be left behind once March talks for Baltic material conclude and as the higher-priced European ammonia hits the market.

Talks with Baltic suppliers have not yet started, sources reported. Normally by this time, said one trader, the two sides would at least begin exploring pricing possibilities. The absence of Russian ammonia in the sanctions set out by the U.S. and its European allies removed a major concern for ammonia buyers in Europe. Some had begun to look for substitute sources from North Africa to Trinidad in the event that sanctions were imposed on ammonia.

Prior to the Russian invasion, sources said the best producers could hope for was a rollover of the $1,115/mt FOB price. However, given the closed Black Sea ports and the uncertainty in Ukraine, prices are expected to go up in March.

India:

Buyers built up reserves in the last quarter of 2021. While not fully stocked with ammonia, the end users are comfortable enough that they do not have to pay whatever price is placed before them by a supplier.

At this point, said one trader, the Indian users are in good shape. Some DAP plants will be going down for routine maintenance turnarounds, reducing the demand for ammonia.The ammonia price remains steady from the last spot deal done at $890-$910/mt CFR.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Russia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

No updated pricing was reported for the Central Florida DAP truck market, leaving values steady at the last-heard $785/st FOB level. The last MAP postings were also noted at $785/st FOB, unmoved from the prior report.

MAP loaded to trucks from North Florida remained posted at $780/st FOB on Feb. 24, sources confirmed.

U.S. Gulf:

Sources said Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine upended the NOLA phosphate market as players braced for increased global supply uncertainty, as well as possible rising energy and feedstock prices.

Prior to Feb. 24, players noted NOLA DAP barges trading near the top of the week-ago range at $765-$770/st FOB. Bidding on Feb. 24 started in the $825-$850/st FOB range before trading culminated at the $865/st FOB level by the end of the day, sources said.

MAP followed a similar pattern, with sources describing pre-invasion trades at $770-$775/st FOB, building on the prior-week’s $770/st FOB ceiling. Sentiment was noted moving considerably higher on Feb. 24, however, with players expecting updated levels on par with DAP.

Offers were generally heard to have been pulled from the market shortly after the news out of Ukraine, leaving DAP and MAP barges in a state of price discovery. “All offers have been pulled by everyone I’ve talked to,” said one trader. Most offers from upriver terminals were also rescinded on Feb. 24.

In addition to the specter of reduced DAP and MAP volumes from Russia due to potential sanctions or other restrictions, market watchers pointed to expected price increases in ammonia and possibly sulfur as likely to drive phosphate production costs higher.

With the NOLA phosphate markets ending the week in disarray, players described DAP barge pricing at a wide $765-$865/st FOB for the week, increasing from the prior week’s $740-$770/st FOB. MAP also moved up, with players quoting the market at $770-$865/st FOB, lifting from $750-$770/st FOB one week earlier.

U.S. Exports:

Nothing new was heard in the U.S. Gulf phosphate export markets for the week, leaving values at their last-reported $850-$858/mt FOB level.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices in the Eastern Cornbelt firmed once again, jumping to $795-$820/st FOB from the prior week’s $775-$795/st FOB range, depending on location and time of the week. MAP was quoted at $800-$830/st FOB. As with urea, however, most suppliers pulled phosphate prices on Feb. 24 due to market uncertainty in the wake of the Ukraine conflict. Some sources speculated that prices may resurface at a $100/st premium to last week’s range.

Sources pegged the Cincinnati DAP market at $795-$810/st FOB, with the low reported early in the week. DAP pricing at Ottawa was also confirmed at the $810/st FOB level at midweek. The Cincinnati MAP market was quoted at a low of $800/st FOB before prices ratcheted up prior to being withdrawn on Feb. 24.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing strengthened to $800-$820/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $775-$785/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at midweek in St. Louis prior to reports of most suppliers withdrawing offers.

MAP was quoted at $800-$825/st FOB prior to Feb. 24, depending on location, with the St. Louis market pegged at $805-$810/st FOB.

Southern Plains:

DAP pricing at Catoosa/Inola reportedly jumped to $800-$825/st FOB, up from $780-$785/st FOB the previous week, before some suppliers pulled pricing in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. MAP was quoted at $800-$830/st FOB at that location.

South Central:

The DAP terminal market in late February jumped to $790-$820/st FOB in the South Central region, up $15-$30/st from the previous week and a full $60-$70/st above pricing levels in early February. The low end of the range was reported at Memphis, with the high at Shreveport and out of Ohio River terminals in Kentucky. The market FOB Little Rock, Ark., was pegged at the $810/st FOB level at midweek.

Southeast:

MAP remained at $780/st FOB Aurora, N.C., with the last DAP offers also at the $780/st FOB level at Aurora. DAP prices in Wilmington were pegged at $805/st FOB at midweek.

In the Northeast, sources reported new MAP offers FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., at $815/st for 1Q and $840/st for 2Q tons.

India:

Sources said DAP demand in India is there, but not desperately so. Prices remain at $915-$925/mt CFR.

The closing of a tender by NFL was postponed until Feb. 25 because only one company submitted an offer before the previous deadline of Feb. 19. The tender is for a long-term contract for DAP supplies throughout the year. Sources said NFL could not make awards without multiple offers.

Spot buyers are keeping an eye on the market and are generally willing to step up for a cargo if the price is right. At the same time, some DAP is coming out of China based on old contracts.

Indian buyers are watching the situation in Ukraine and Russia closely. While India has reduced its dependence on Russian DAP, it still takes product from that country. DAP imports in 2021 were reported at 93,000 mt, versus the 335,000 mt imported in 2020.

China:

End users and DAP producers are being more successful in their arguments with customs officials to allow more exports. Sources said the victories are still not enough to ease pressure on the global DAP market, however.

The central government is allowing exports to cover older contracts once local officials are sure they have enough DAP for their own needs. Sources pointed out that in some cases, however, the end user is taking only the minimum amount under the contract, leaving some leftover tons for a small spot sale.

Without any new public spot deals, the price remains at $890-$900/mt FOB from calculations based on the Indian delivered price.

Russia:

Exports of DAP in 2021 were reported at 1.3 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This amount represents a 16 percent drop from 2020 exports of 1.5 million mt.

The main buyers in 2021 were Mexico with 129,000 mt, representing 10 percent of DAP exports, followed by Belgium with 107,000 mt and India with 93,000 mt.

Brazil:

Prices of MAP tightened to $880-$920/mt CFR in Brazil. Earlier in the week, sources said Moroccan and Russian offers were all being placed in the upper end of the price range. All trading stopped, however, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Domestic buyers wanted to wait and see how things shake out after the dust settles.

The upward pressure on pricing was also felt in Rondonopolis. Sources put the price there at $986-$1,050/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA granular urea barge trades early in the week were reported in the $532-$560/st FOB range. After the Russia/Ukraine news, however, trades shot up to $680-$705/st FOB, leaving a very broad range for the week of $532-$705/st FOB, versus the week-ago $525-$545/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The urea market remained extremely volatile, with reports that most terminals had pulled offers on Feb. 24 in the wake of soaring NOLA barge prices.

Prices out of most Illinois and Ohio River terminals were quoted in the $610-$620/st FOB range at midweek, up from a low of $600/st FOB the previous week. The market reportedly rebounded to $630-$635/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, on Feb. 23 before offers were withdrawn on Feb. 24.

Western Cornbelt:

The urea market continued to climb in the Western Cornbelt, although the disarray caused by Russia military action in Ukraine resulted in multiple locations pulling offers late in the week. “Everything is up, but it may be tomorrow or Monday before the markets get reestablished,” commented one regional source on Feb. 24.

Urea prices firmed to $600-$630/st FOB in the region prior to Feb. 24, depending on location, with the St. Louis market quoted solidly in the $600-$610/st FOB range at midweek, up from the prior week’s $590-$600/st FOB.

Southern Plains:

Sources reported some topdress applications of urea on wheat in central and southern Kansas ahead of a series of midweek storm.

After starting the week in the upper-$500s/st FOB, the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market reportedly firmed to $610-$615/st FOB as the week progressed. “It totally depends on what day you call,” commented one source.

Urea pricing at Houston, Texas, was quoted at a solid $640/st FOB during the week. Sources said no tons are currently being offered out of Enid in late February.

South Central:

Urea pricing volatility continued in the South Central region, fueled by a firming NOLA market after several weeks of dropping prices.

Terminal prices for urea ranged from $600-$635/st FOB in the region, with the low reported on the Arkansas River and the high at Convent, La. Other terminal prices included $610-$615/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., and $615/st FOB Shreveport, La., while Kentucky sources reported Ohio River terminal offers in the $620-$630/st FOB range.

Southeast:

Urea prices out of port terminals in the Southeast were once again firming after a lull earlier in the month. Pricing at Savannah, Ga., was pegged at a solid $700/st FOB at midweek, while the market FOB Wilmington, N.C., was quoted at $680-$690/st FOB for the last offers.

Black Sea:

No deals were done out of the Black Sea because of the closure of all Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. The closures were forced by the overwhelming presence of the Russian navy in the Black Sea and direct attacks on several of the ports by the Russian army.

The lack of any possibility of business by the end of the week meant there is currently no way to determine pricing for product from the area. The price just before the closures was based on calculations from the IPL/India tender at $545-$550/mt FOB. However, movement in Egypt and the Arab Gulf – before the invasion – indicated prices were on the ascendancy.

Sources were not sure how many tons were coming from Black Sea ports to India as part of the IPL tender. They speculated at best maybe two or three cargos would be involved. There was no word in the market if any of those cargoes were being loaded at the time of the closures.

Buyers looking to find other sources of urea will find the market tight. Arab Gulf producers reported they are sold out though mid- to late-March. Central Asian countries are landlocked and depend on Russian ports in the Black Sea to move their product beyond neighboring countries.

Southeast Asia does not have the capacity or availability of vessels to replace what could be lost from the Black Sea if the closures continue more than a week. North Africa is focused on Europe, and European buyers are snapping up tons, pushing the price ever higher, making any other market unfeasible.

Russia exported 7 million mt of urea in 2021, according to Trade Data Monitor. This is a 4 percent drop from the 7.3 million mt exported in 2020.

All told, Russia sold urea to 86 countries in 2021. The diversity of its customer base ensured no one buyer dominated the others. The single largest buyer was Brazil with 1.4 million mt, which represented 19.7 percent of Russian urea exports. Next in line was Finland with 856,000 mt, or 12 percent of the export market. These tons were usually earmarked for re-export to the global market.

Middle East:

Egyptian producer MOPCO started the week with a urea sale of 10,000 mt at $600/mt FOB. The move represented what industry sources expected to be a gradual increase in prices. By midweek, another deal was closed at $615/mt FOB for another 10,000 mt.

In the last days of the week, however, the price rises came faster and went higher. In just one day prices jumped to $670/mt FOB, then $700/mt for 6,000 mt from KIMA, and finally to $730/mt FOB for 6,000 mt from MOPCO.

Sources said all the tons were bound for European buyers.The big increases came after Russia invaded Ukraine and as buyers began looking for sources other than Russia for their urea.

At the same time, Arab Gulf producers were pushing $600/mt FOB as their new floor. The price was a minor and expected boost from the $560-$580/mt FOB from the IPL/India tender. However, the producers were also telling people that they could not ship anything until late March after the last of the IPL tender tons were shipped.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the closing of the Black Sea ports, and the dramatic run-up in prices in Egypt, sources said the producers will be asking for much more once there are tons available for spot sales.

The paper market for the Arab Gulf was behind on pricing ideas even before the Russian action took place. The posted prices were at $592.50/mt FOB for March and $580/mt FOB for April.

Sources said buyers were approaching Iran to see if deals could be worked out to replace lost Black Sea tons, or to find product at a cheaper price without running afoul of the American sanctions on Iran. One trader noted that the disruption in the Russian and Ukrainian supply chain is now casting Iran as a possible savior of the urea market.

Initial expectations were that Russian urea might be included in sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Western Europe. If that happened, sources said they hoped that some accommodation might be made to allow some Iranian urea into the market or to allow urea from landlocked Central Asian countries to be transported through Iran and shipped out of Iranian ports without penalty.

One trader said the logistics of arranging transportation through Iran to one of its ports would be just as formidable as the steps necessary to comply with the U.S. sanctions against Iran.In the end, however, the first wave of sanctions against Russia did not include urea or other fertilizers.

India:

India still needs urea, but is not as desperate as it was before the most recent tender.

Sources said they expect to see another tender called within the next several weeks. The most likely time, said one trader, would be right after the last letter of credit was opened. By that point, he said, financing for the urea would be done and vessels would be nominated for all the material awarded.

Even before the uncertainty pressed on the market by Russia, sources said the price in the upcoming tender would be higher than the previous tender. Now, said one trader, all bets are off.

China:

Small urea quantities of 3,000-6,000 mt are being exported from China. Sources said the paperwork to secure these few shipments often requires weeks of processing and explaining to local customs officials that the urea can and should be shipped.

Prices for these small quantities are being quietly negotiated between the producers and end users. For reference, the industry is using the last Indian tender price to calculate the estimated export price. For now, that price remains at $575-$580/mt FOB.

Indonesia:

Another sale was secured from the scrapped urea tender of last week. Kaltim sold 90,000 mt of granular product at $553/mt FOB. This represents a sizable increase from the highest bid in the tender of $529/mt FOB.

Sources noted that it is not unusual for Kaltim or another Indonesian producer to scrap a tender if the bids are not high enough for them. They will then go into private talks with the leading bidding companies to negotiate a new price and close the deal.

Brazil:

Sources said all trading stopped at the end of the week because of the uncertainty raised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Some traders were already pulling back after announcements of higher natural gas prices in Europe, which were seen as an indicator of higher urea prices coming.

Before talks stopped, however, the landed price tightened to $550-$585/mt CFR.

At the same time, holders of urea in Rondonopolis began to unload their product. The price was reported at $700-$800/mt FOB ex-warehouse before all trades stopped to allow players to assess the impact of the Russian invasion. Sources said besides the rapid sales, a weaker dollar provided a slight downward push to the inland prices.

Brazilian urea handlers were concerned about the impact of the incursion into Ukraine and possible sanctions against buying Russian urea. As previously reported, Brazil imported 1.4 million mt from Russia out of a total of 7.8 million mt in 2021. Trade Data Monitor reported that this total represented about 18 percent of Brazilian urea imports.

Sources said even the proposed efforts by the Brazilian government to step up Iranian imports could not have made up for the loss of Russia as a major source of urea.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA UAN barges remained at $545-$550/st ($17.03-$17.19/unit) FOB in late February.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The industry was awaiting the results of CF’s UAN tender, which closed on Feb. 22. Bids were to remain valid until Feb. 24, with customers expecting to be notified on that date whether bids were accepted or rejected. As the week concluded, however, there were reports from some industry sources that CF had extended the offer until Feb. 28 and was allowing earlier bids to be changed or cancelled. CF, however, did not confirm those adjusted terms.

The last confirmed prices for UAN-32 remained at $580-$600/st ($18.13-$18.75/unit) FOB for prompt and $605-$615/st ($18.91-$19.22/unit) FOB for prepay in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the Ottawa, Ill., market pegged at the $610/st ($19.06/unit) FOB level. The most recent UAN-28 prices were pegged at $508-$512/st ($18.14-$18.29/unit) FOB Cincinnati for prompt tons and $537-$538/st ($19.18-$19.21/unit) FOB for spring prepay.

Western Cornbelt:

The last reported UAN-32 prices were unchanged at $590/st ($18.44/unit) FOB St. Louis for February-March tons and $605-$615/st ($18.91-$19.22/unit) for April-June, with the upper end of the regional market pegged at $600-$620/st ($18.75-$19.38/unit) FOB in Iowa and Nebraska, depending on location and time of shipment. Several sources described the market as “on hold” until the result of CF’s UAN tender are known.

Southern Plains:

The prompt UAN-32 market FOB Gulf Coast terminals was reported at $565-$570/st ($17.66-$17.81/unit) FOB, with March-April tons quoted at $585-$590/st ($18.28-$18.44/unit) FOB Dodge City, Kan. Sources reported no current offers from CF terminals while the company’s recent tender is concluded.

South Central:

Sources were awaiting news of CF’s UAN tender, which closed on Feb. 22. The last prices reported prior to the tender included Donaldsonville, La., tons at $550-$555/st ($17.19-$17.34/unit) FOB for February, $565/st ($17.66/unit) for March, and $585/st ($18.28/unit) for April-June, with the upper end of the regional market pegged at the $605/st ($18.91/unit) level in Kentucky for spring tons.

Southeast:

Sources reported no current UAN-32 offers at Wilmington during the week, but some tons were reportedly available at the $620/st ($19.38/unit) level FOB Chesapeake, Va. The low end of the regional UAN-32 market remained at the $540/st ($16.88/unit) FOB level out of spot inland terminals in the Georgia market.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Market Watch, Northwestern Europe, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium nitrate pricing remained at $700-$730/st FOB for the last reported prompt or prepay offers in the Western Cornbelt.

Southern Plains:

The ammonium nitrate market was unchanged at $700/st FOB Muskogee, Okla., and $710/st FOB Pryor for the last prompt or spring prepay offers.

South Central:

The last ammonium nitrate pricing was reported at $690-$700/st FOB in Arkansas. Sources said no current prices were being offered at Yazoo City, Miss., in late February.

Southeast:

The last Tampa ammonium nitrate business was reported at the $750/st FOB level, but sources said there were no tons being offered in late February.

Northwest Europe:

Yara has reportedly withdrawn its offers of ammonium nitrate and CAN following Russia’s military move on Ukraine while it assesses the situation.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Ammonium sulfatebarges remained flat at $585-$590/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $605-$640/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati for prompt tons and the high for spring prepay on the Ohio River. The prompt market FOB Ottawa was pegged at the $620/st level at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate pricing was pegged at $610-$630/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the high in Iowa and the low confirmed at St. Louis.

Southern Plains:

The Houston granular ammonium sulfate market ranged broadly at $550-$600/st FOB in late February, depending on supplier, while pricing FOB Catoosa/Inola reportedly inched up to $630-$640/st FOB.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices continued to edge higher at some terminal locations. While the low end of the regional market remained at $590-$595/st FOB Memphis, the upper end had reportedly firmed to $630-$635/st FOB in Arkansas and up to $640/st FOB Shreveport and Ohio River terminals in Kentucky.

Southeast:

Ammonium sulfate postings from AdvanSix firmed $10/st on Feb. 8, with pricing at Hopewell, Va., moving to $560/st FOB for granular, $530/st FOB for mid-grade, and $510/st FOB for standard. Delivered tons in Florida were reported at $565/st for standard and $615/st for granular.

China:

Sources reported prices under discussion for caprolactam grade amsul as low as $205/mt FOB and as high as $225/mt FOB. Arguments for the higher price are based on calculations of sales late last week and earlier this week to Southeast Asian buyers.

Sources reported sales into the Philippines at $250-$260/mt CFR. With freight estimates of around $30/mt, the upper range is justified. The netback most often heard from these deals is $225-$230/mt FOB. The argument for the lower price, said one trade, appeared to be more related to expectations based on the growing quantity of amsul building up in the Chinese ports.

Traders said buyers in the region were not as eager to purchase as before because of falling urea prices. The rebound in pricing this week, however, could shift their interest again.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate prices in Brazil moved up to $305-$330/mt CFR as part of a trend leading to stronger demand for the product.

TSP

Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA TSP barge prices moved from $680-$685/st FOB early in the week to a reported $730/st FOB on Feb. 24, traders said.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP pricing was reported at $725-$735/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.

South Central:

TSP pricing was moving up in the South Central region. Terminal prices ranged from $725-$735/st FOB in late February, up $10/st from last report.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Phosphoric Acid, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The phos acid market was unchanged at $16.20/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid prices remained at $16.10/unit in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri for February tons.

Southern Plains:

February pricing for phos acid remained at $16.10/unit rail-DEL in Kansas, Colorado, and Wyoming; $16.20/unit rail-DEL in Oklahoma, and Texas; and $16.35/unit rail-DEL in Louisiana.

India:

The first-quarter phos acid deal between OCP and its Indian buyers was settled this week at $1,530/mt P2O5 CFR. This represents a jump of $200/mt from the fourth-quarter 2021 price of $1,330/mt.