U.S. Gulf:
New granular urea trades were reported in the
$763-$780/st FOB NOLA range, rebounding from the week-ago $752-$787/st FOB. The
lower prices last week were attributed to limited buying. More interest was
shown this week.
There were unconfirmed reports that some suppliers
might be looking at exporting product out of NOLA, but more details were not
immediately available.
New
prill barge pricing was reported in the $765-$775/st FOB range, with the
product losing its premium over granular.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
pricing had reportedly slipped in the wake of a slumping NOLA barge market at
the start of December. Even though NOLA urea has since rebounded, sources
reported new terminal offers at $810-$825/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, and $825-$840/st
FOB Illinois River terminals, down from $855-$865/st FOB. There were reports as
well of spring urea offers on the table at the $840/st FOB level out of spot
Ohio River locations at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea
pricing ranged widely in the Western Cornbelt, thanks to a volatile NOLA barge
market since the start of December.
While
Iowa sources reported terminal pricing at the $860/st FOB level as the week
progressed, the low end of the regional range was reported at $810/st FOB
Caruthersville, Mo. The St. Louis, Mo., market was quoted at $810-$820/st FOB
at midweek.
Southern Plains:
Urea
pricing at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., ranged from $815-$840/st FOB during the week.
The market FOB Houston, Texas, reportedly firmed from a low of $810/st up to $855/st
FOB as the week progressed.
South Central:
The
previous week’s slump in NOLA urea pricing, however brief, was reportedly being
felt at upriver terminals in the South Central region.
Urea
pricing was reported at $810-$815/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., and most Arkansas
River terminals, down from $845-$865/st FOB in late November. The upper end of
the regional market was pegged at $820-$825/st FOB Shreveport and Convent, La.,
and spot river terminals in Kentucky.
Southeast:
While
prompt urea pricing remained at the $860/st level FOB Savannah, Ga., sources
said the Wilmington, N.C., market had slipped to $820-$825/st FOB for Q1
offers. The last rail-delivered business was reported at the $920/st level in
the Carolinas.
India:
Sources
all repeated the same line: “A tender will be called soon. Maybe as early as
Friday.”
Reportedly,
leaders from NFL met with fertilizer ministry officials Thursday to discuss the
pending tender. Sources are unified in their views that the tender will be
called soon because India needs the urea.
Sources
vary in their estimates of how much urea India still needs. The lowest number
indicates a deficit of 2 million mt, while others point out that India is 2.9
million mt behind its buying from 2020 at this time.
Expectations
are that once the tender is called, offers will be well above $1,000/mt CFR.
Sources cite several reasons for a tight market with higher prices, including
continued restrictions on urea exports from China, with the exception of 18,000
mt to South Korea; the limitations on Russian exports; and the lack of
Indonesia tons until late in the first quarter of 2022. Only strong production
in the Arab Gulf is expected to offer any hope to prevent runaway prices.
The
rising cost of urea is hitting the Indian treasury hard. Besides having to pay
dramatically more for the product, the budget to cover the subsidies offered to
urea and other fertilizers is also a problem. According to media reports in
India, government and financial consulting firms claim that subsidies for the
2021/22 fiscal year will exceed the budgeted amount by 62 percent. The new
estimated cost for all subsidies is reported to hit US$17.2 billion.
Industry
sources in India said the rising cost of urea is the single largest contributor
to the explosion in subsidy payments. Not only is the imported urea now at
record levels, but natural gas prices have risen by at least 50 percent this
year, causing domestic producers to demand more support from the government.
The
Indian government inaugurated the revamped Gorakhpur plant. The facility was
adapted to take natural gas instead of coal, and urea production operations
were upgraded. According to media reports, a steady supply of natural gas will
begin flowing to the plant in early 2022. For now, the plant, which is rated at
1.2 million mt/y, will conduct test runs to work out the kinks.
Middle
East:
Production
in the Arab Gulf is being used to cover existing commitments, including the
most recent IPL urea tender from India. Sources said there is no spot material
available through the end of the month. Prices remained steady in the $950s/mt
FOB, which was based on the IPL tender results.
The
paper market for the Arab Gulf remains behind the actual market. Sources said
the December price was pegged at $905/mt FOB and January at $835/mt FOB.
The
Egyptian government increased the amount of urea reserved for the domestic
market from 55 percent of production to 65 percent. Reportedly this increase
was only for the month of December.
No
new spot deals came out of Egypt this week, leaving the price at $935-$945/mt
FOB. Producers are claiming, without objection, that they are sold out for
December. The increase in the domestic quota underscored the lack of Egyptian
tons for export.
Egyptian
producers are still asking $950/mt FOB for January 2022 tons, but with no
takers.
Black
Sea:
The
urea flowing out of the Black Sea is either booked for the Indian IPL tender or
under existing contracts. Sources said there is a lack of spot material in the
region. Prices remain steady.
China:
Sources
said the export restrictions in China are having an impact on the domestic
market. Prices reportedly have come off dramatically. One trader noted that discussions
of the price for possible urea exports are below the current $960s/mt FOB.
However, no deals with traders have been concluded for export.
The
only exports approved so far appear to have been the small lots totaling 18,000
mt for South Korea. Those lots were reportedly already at the bonded warehouses
just waiting for final document clearances before being shipped when the export
ban deadline hit. Talks among the traders involved and the governments of South
Korea and China shook the material loose.
South
Korea:
The
South Korean government signed a government-to-government three-year deal with
Indonesia for 120,000 mt of urea each year. The move came as South Korea looked
to diversify its supply of urea following the export restrictions imposed on
urea by the Chinese government.
Green Markets previously reported that South Korea imported 751,000 mt of urea during January-October this year. Chinese imports were pegged at 607,000 mt, representing 81 percent of the South Korean market, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Yonhap
News Service quoted South Korean government sources as saying the country
needed a more reliable source of urea for its emissions control program. The
urea is used to make a fluid for diesel vehicles to reduce pollution.
The
first batch of 10,000 mt under the agreement will be sent as early as next
week. This shipment comes on the heels of an agreement with China that released
18,000 mt for export to South Korea earlier this month.
Pakistan:
Local
media reported an announcement by the Pakistan government that it is seeking
100,000 mt from China under a government-to-government deal. Reportedly the
Chinese ambassador in Pakistan said he would assign an embassy official to work
on the Pakistan government’s request.
International
traders said Pakistan might have better luck seeking a government-to-government
deal with Saudi Arabia. Such deals have been done in the past when the Pakistan
foreign reserves were so low it was difficult for it to import the urea it
needed.
The
need for government-level talks came when TCP tried twice to float a tender for
100,000 mt. In each case, TCP did not receive any viable offers.
Indonesia:
Sources
said the government has not yet issued any export permits for the urea
producers. Reportedly the government continues to remain concerned that the
domestic urea demand gets covered before any large scale exports are allowed.
The
deal the government cut with South Korea for a three-year contract of 120,000
mt/y is reportedly outside the usual export protocols established for the
selling tenders held by the producers.
Brazil:
Buyers
are getting more forceful in their pushback against higher prices. Sources said
Brazilian farmers and blenders have enough urea reserves on hand to hold off
making any major buying commitments for a while, unlike in India.
At
the same time the buyers are bidding lower prices, some of the end users are
apparently heeding the advice of farmer associations to seek diversity in
fertilizer inputs to protect the health of the soil. As a result, some buyers
are looking to other inputs instead of urea.
Prices
at the ports have dropped marginally to $830-$890/mt CFR. This movement is seen
as a reaction to the uncertainty that exists in the market. Even as buyers are
pushing for lower prices, they are also keeping a wary eye on India. When the
next Indian tender is called, sources fear prices may rebound.
Rondonopolis
has also shown some softening as buyers pull back. Sources now put the inland
price at $960-$1,000/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
January-November urea imports were reported at 7.1 million mt, up 11.5 percent from the 6.4 million purchased during the same period in 2020. The main suppliers this year with sales greater than 1 million mt were Qatar, Russia, Oman, and Algeria, according to Trade Data Monitor. Nigeria sent 727,000 mt to Brazil during the January-November period, up dramatically from the 365,000 mt sent during the same period last year.
November
imports were reported at 853,000 mt, down about 4 percent from the 887,000 mt imported
in November 2020.