All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, North Africa, Northern Plains, Northwestern Europe, Southeast Asia, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

The Tampa ammonia price remained under pressure to move up in December. November was posted at $825/mt CFR.

In the meantime, however, Nutrien has now bought at least three barges at $1,030/st to meet the needs of is Geismar, La., plant, along with a 25,000 mt vessel from Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden, which is expected to load in December at $800/mt FOB and be delivered in the $925-$940/mt CFR range.

Despite Nutrien’s supply problems at Geismar, all other major ammonia plants in the Gulf area are believed to be in operation.

U.S. Imports:

July-September ammonia imports firmed 17.4 percent year-over-year, DOC data indicated, to 626,663 st from 533,963 st. September imports moved up 10.6 percent, to 202,352 st from the year-ago 182,947 st.

U.S. Exports:

September ammonia exports were noted at 44,064 st, down 7.5 percent from the year-ago 47,632 st. Exports totaled 135,635 st in July-September, falling 45.2 percent from the year-ago 247,610 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices continued to firm in the Eastern Cornbelt, with reports of a busy fall application pace ahead of the precipitation.

The regional market was pegged at $1,150-$1,210/st FOB, up from the previous week’s $1,100-$1,200/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Huntington, Ind., and Lima, Ohio, and the high at Mount Vernon Ind., and Henderson, Ky. Sources said most Illinois terminals were firmly at the $1,200/st FOB level for new sales.

As Green Markets went to press, there were reports of new postings as high as $1,300/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia pricing was up roughly $100/st in the Western Cornbelt, with new offers reported at $1,185-$1,200/st FOB regional terminals. In the Southern Plains, new pricing FOB Pryor, Okla., had reportedly firmed to $1,100/st FOB for prompt tons.

Northern Plains:

The last confirmed ammonia business was reported in the $1,210-$1,240/st FOB range in North Dakota and Minnesota, but sources said suppliers were either sold out or pricing only limited tons. New delivered offers were quoted in a broad range at $1,285-$1,370/st in the Northern Plains, depending on destination.

“There is still a good amount of interest,” said one regional ammonia contact. “I would say it is a better fall than we expected, but volumes aren’t necessarily above a ‘normal’ fall.”

Middle East:

Even though ammonia supplies remain tight, Ma’aden sold 25,000 mt to Nutrien at $800/mt FOB. The cargo is slated for a December loading for delivery to the U.S. Gulf.

Sources said additional deals are unlikely anytime soon due to the lack of supply for the spot market. Sales into Southeast Asia continue under existing contracts at prices that are way off the current market. Sources said the main buyers in Asia – Taiwan and South Korea – are still paying for product in the high-$600s/mt CFR.

Black Sea:

Material is so tight in the area that sources said even some buyers with contract tons are beginning to feel the pinch. Most Ukrainian suppliers have shut down because of high natural gas prices. A few have remained running just to cover existing contracts, but at an ever-increasing loss.

The lack of any spot tons makes pricing in the area difficult. Sources said if any spot tons were available, the price would be $800-$850/mt FOB, and most likely at the higher end of that range. Working the price back from Northwest Europe and the Baltic ports, the price would be closer to $810/mt FOB.

India:

The only ammonia flowing into India is under existing contracts, which are way off the market levels. Traders put the price into India under these contracts at $630-$650/mt CFR.

Even the last spot deal, which was done about a month ago at $670/mt CFR, is way off, sources said, pointing to the Arab Gulf price of $800/mt FOB. At that rate, the price into India would be closer to $850-$860/mt CFR. Sources stressed, however, that this is only an estimated price. No actual deals were done at this level into India.

North Africa:

Sources said Algerian plants are turning out product as quickly as they can. And just as quickly, the main buyers – consisting of Fertiglobe, Trammo, and Fertiberia – are snatching up the tons.

Phosphate giant OCP in Morocco reportedly is operating with only a few days of ammonia reserves left. Sources put the reserves at less than 50,000 mt against a daily use of 5,000-6,000 mt. One reason for the low quantities, sources said, is that bad weather is hindering vessels transiting the Bosporus Straits.

Even during good weather, the Turkish authorities limit passage to only one ammonia carrier at a time, and only during daylight hours. With the waning number of daylight hours as winter approaches, the vessel lineup has had to be adjusted. Sources said until the bad weather caused delays, however, vessels were transiting without major issues.

Reportedly, OCP is willing and able to buy ammonia from anyone offering, almost at any price being offered. No one is offering, however, leaving the company dependent on only its contract tons, said one trader.

Northwest Europe:

No new spot business in the area occurred to move prices off the $905-$907/mt C&F mark. Helping keep the market steady was the large jump in the Baltic price for November to $820-$822/mt FOB and the lack of any spot tons out of the Black Sea. Once either of these locations shift, sources said the Northwest Europe price will move accordingly.

Bets are being laid that, come December, the Baltic price will rise even as demand for product remains strong. If Morocco comes in strong for ammonia, it could also affect how the European price moves. Sources said it would not be unlikely to see $950/mt C&F in December.

Southeast Asia:

Major buyers Taiwan and South Korea are currently comfortable with tons coming in under existing contracts at prices well below current market levels.

As reported earlier, South Korea imported a total of 1.1 million mt of ammonia during the January-September period this year. Indonesia supplied 500,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia at 140,000 mt and Trinidad at 134,000 mt. Of note to some in the industry was that South Korea did not import any Trinidad material in 2020. One trader said the fact that the country had to go to the Caribbean supplier showed how tight product has been this year.

Taiwan purchases followed a similar pattern as South Korea. Total imports for the January-August period showed Indonesia supplying 235,000 mt and Saudi Arabia sending 87,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. The third major supplier to Taiwan was Iran with 73,000 mt, representing 16 percent of the total import market.

Brazil:

Imports of ammonia continued at a high pace. January-October imports were up 41 percent from the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 477,000 mt. October 2021 imports were up 38 percent, to 33,000 mt from 24,000 mt.

Trinidad remains the nearly sole supplier of ammonia to Brazil. Of the 477,000 mt imported during the first 10 months of the year, Trinidad supplied 457,000 mt.

Urea

Africa, Brazil, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Mexico, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, South Korea, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA barge prices continued to shoot up, with sources saying the market is following international prices. The latest trades were put at $790-$812/st FOB for November, up from the week-ago $720-$750/st FOB.

U.S. Imports:

Imports of urea were up 14.8 percent for September, to 261,778 st from the year-ago 228,055 st. July-September totals stood at 983,955 st, rising 77.2 percent from the year-ago 555,315 st.

Qatar imports totaled 267,633 st for July-September, a 68.2 percent increase on the year-ago 159,078 st. Canada leapfrogged Russia and Saudi Arabia into second place with 159,026, a 56.8 percent increase from 101,414 st last year. Russia registered the third-largest import origin with 145,600 st, topping 138,009 st from Saudi Arabia.

U.S. Exports:

Urea exports for September stood at 16,146 st, down 80.0 percent from the year-ago 80,888 st. July-September exports were reported at 47,920 st, off 85.7 percent from the prior-year 335,937 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The urea market in the Eastern Cornbelt vaulted higher in the wake of a firming NOLA barge market. New levels at midweek were up a full $75-$100/st from the previous week, and included $845-$850/st FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, $850-$860/st FOB Illinois River terminals, and up to $875/st FOB Michigan terminals.

Urea prices in the South Central region ranged from $805-$845/st FOB, depending on location and time of the week, with the Convent, La., market pegged firmly at the $820-$830/st FOB level at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

Sources reported significantly higher urea prices in the Western Cornbelt. Sources quoted the market at $850-$870/st FOB, up a full $100/st from the previous week, with St. Louis, Mo., pricing pegged firmly in the $860-$870/st FOB range as the week progressed.

In the Southern Plains, the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market was reported at $855-$870/st FOB.

Northern Plains:

Sources reported much higher urea pricing in the Northern Plains. The St. Paul, Minn., market was pegged at $850/st FOB for the last prompt business, up another $50-$70/st from the previous week, with reports of river-open offers in the $865-$875/st FOB range at that location.

Delivered pricing jumped to $885-$945/st in North Dakota and Montana, and up to C$1,225-$1,245/mt DEL in Western Canada for spring tons, up from the prior week’s C$1,120/mt DEL level.

Northeast:

The urea market jumped to $850-$875/st FOB in the Northeast, up $100/st or more since mid-October. In the Southeast, new pricing FOB Savannah, Ga., was reported at the $850/st level or higher at midweek, up a full $120/st from last report.

Eastern Canada:

Urea pricing in Eastern Canada had reportedly jumped to a wide C$1,200-$1,335/mt FOB range, depending on location, up from C$960-$1,200/mt FOB in mid-October.

India:

The IPL tender closed on Nov. 11 with 16 companies offering about 2.5 million mt. The lowest offers came from Keytrade at $981.64/mt CFR for West Coast delivery, and Fertiglobe with 180,000 mt at $998.50 for East Coast delivery.

The fact that IPL released the tonnage and prices offered is an indication of how fast the company wants to issue awards. Normally the tonnage is released first, followed by the prices in another day or so.

The prices offered indicate how volatile the market has become. The Nov. 1 RCF tender closed with prices in the $890s/mt FOB for a landed price at the Indian West Coast of $923/mt CFR. If the Keytrade price is accepted, that would represent a $50/mt jump in less than a fortnight.

Offering Company Quantity (mt) US$/mt CFR Discharge Port
Amber 30,000 999.99 ECI
30,000 1,199.99 WCI
Ameropa 246,450 1,028.00 ECI
491,900 1,018.00 WCI
Continental 100,000 999.75 WCI
1,003.25 ECI
Dreymoor 136,000 1,034.42 WCI
100,000 1,184.42 ECI
Eurochem 50,000 1,050.00 WCI
Fertiglobe 180,000 995.00 WCI
998.50 ECI L1
Keytrade 97,500 981.64 WCI L1
Koch 49,500 1,014.00 ECI
135,500 1,101.00 WCI
Midgulf 50,000 1,027.00 WCI
50,000 1,040.00 ECI
OCI 140,000 999.25 ECI
995.75 WCI
OQ Trading 94,300 1,013.00 WCI
Samsung 92,000 1,022.00 ECI
187,000 1,014.00 WCI
Swiss Singapore 45,000 1,096.50 ECI
90,000 1,091.00 WCI
Transglobe 45,000 1,024.00 ECI
Offering Company Quantity (mt) US$/mt FOB
Muntajat 45,000 1,000.00
SABIC 50,000 984.00

The Indian buyer moved quickly with counterbids reflecting the offers from Keytrade and Fertiglobe. Responses are due Nov. 15. Awards are expected to be issued quickly following any acceptances of the bid. The shipping deadline is Dec. 31.

Sources said even if IPL makes a large purchase this time around, at least two more tenders will be needed to shrink the country’s urea deficit by the end of the first quarter. Sources speculated that the final take in this tender will be just under 1 million mt.

Soon after the IPL tender was called, sources speculated that if the price is high enough, the Indian market could draw tons away from other buyers. So far this week, sources said traders were quietly letting buyers in Brazil and Bangladesh know that their cargoes might be delayed so the tons could be diverted to India.

The lowest price for the West Coast of India indicates a netback to the Arab Gulf of $950/mt FOB, which matches a reported deal done earlier in the week. The price submitted by SABIC and Muntajat are clear indications that the Arab Gulf producers expect to see higher prices into the new year.

Middle East:

A 45,000 mt cargo of granular urea was purchased from SABIC at $950/mt FOB for a December loading. Sources speculated the material is slated to be part of the offerings in the IPL/India tender. The SABIC offer of $984/mt FOB in the IPL tender showed that producers expect to see higher prices for a while.

Sources reported that RCF/India was shopping around for a vessel to pick up tons from the area for late-November or early-December loading. This would be tied to the producer-only tender that closed on Nov. 1. There are also reports of traders looking at vessel availability and prices for December shipments from the Arab Gulf to India. This is seen as traders getting ready for the Nov. 11 IPL tender.

The market was hit this week when the Egyptian government stepped up its demand that producers look to the domestic market first. A new ruling stated that producers needed to reserve 55 percent of their rated production capacity for the domestic market.

Sources estimated that the rated production is about 535,000 mt/month. Under the new government edict, the producers would only have 241,000 mt available for export each month in November and December. This amount is troublesome.

Sources estimated that producers have already committed to shipping 200,000-250,000 mt in each of the two remaining months of the year. Rumors are circulating that some producers might pull back tons committed to traders for export or tell traders their cargoes will be delayed a month or two.

Rumors of losing tonnage even circulated in Brazil. Sources there and in Asia said the combination of the Indian tender and the Egyptian government action could mean that urea originally destined for the South American country could be scrapped or delayed well into the first quarter of 2022.

Another rumor making the rounds, but unconfirmed out of Egypt, is that the government may settle for producers holding back 25 percent of their production. Even if that rumor plays out, sources said the Indian market is currently more attractive to producers than Brazil or other buyers. Tons slated for Brazil could still be delayed and offered to India.

Even as the availability of Egyptian product is up in the air, Abu Qir reportedly settled a deal to ship out 15,000 mt of granular urea at $925/mt FOB. This price represents a $25/mt rise from the upper end of the price range from last week.

South Korea:

The Chinese export restriction has played havoc with the South Korea liquid urea market. The product, diesel exhaust fluid, is required for diesel vehicles in the country.

The concern was so great that the Korean government sent a military cargo aircraft to Australia to pick up 27,000 liters of urea solution. News stories of a pending economic collapse in South Korea because trucks will soon be unable to operate unless the liquid urea supplies are replenished went global. In each story, the blame for the potential crisis was laid at the Chinese government’s decision to restrict urea exports.

By the end of this week, rumors circulated that the Chinese government relented and allowed the export of 110,000 mt of industrial grade urea so South Korea can make its own liquid urea. At the same time, the Korean government was negotiating with Russia – which has also limited urea exports – for a container of industrial urea.

Another deal with Vietnam was closed for 6,000 mt to be shipped next week. Sources said the South Koreans stressed the industrial needs for urea, and according to traders, promised none of the product would be used for agriculture or global trade as a fertilizer.

All told, South Korea imported 703,000 mt of urea during January-September of this year, according to Trade Data Monitor. About 567,000 mt, or roughly 81 percent, came from China.

Indonesia:

Producers remained quiet this week. Besides not having any more permits to export this year, many plants are on scheduled maintenance turnarounds, leaving no opportunities to test market prices.

Sources have speculated that once the IPL tender closes and awards are issued, the producers may begin pressuring the government to issue new export permits quickly so they can take advantage of the hot market.

Ethiopia:

The Oct. 29 EABC tender was scrapped after only one company submitted a series of offers. In the end, the company was disqualified and a new tender was called.

The new tender will be for 803,000 mt and will close on Nov. 19. The shipment period will be though March 2022, the same as the original tender. Reportedly, invitations to the tender were sent to a short list of pre-approved companies.

The lack of interest in the earlier tender, sources said, was attributed to apparent reluctance by some banks to finance the sales. Some trading houses have also complained in the past of delays in awards and then later in securing agreements on shipping.

Mexico:

Reports are circulating that Mexico may soon follow in the footsteps of China and Russia and limit exports of several fertilizers. Urea seemed to be at the top of the list, said one international trader.

Sources said the Mexican government is using the same reasoning as Russia and China: they want to ensure a low-cost, plentiful supply for the domestic market. However, some in the industry see the move more as an effort to further drive up international prices and then offer tons at a much higher level.

Brazil:

Brazilian and international traders all report that urea prices have hit $870/mt CFR at Paranagua. Local traders further argued that the range for deals this week topped off at $900/mt CFR. Some international traders argued that the higher number is under discussion but has not yet been concluded.

The IPL urea tender, along with export restrictions from Russia and China, as well as expected reduction in material available from Egypt, has buyers and sellers all discussing much higher prices. The expectations of Arab Gulf producers near $1,000/mt FOB are expected to be felt in Brazil soon.

Inland deals were limited as buyers remain hesitant to add to the rising prices. Rondonopolis is now pegged at $1,000-$1,030/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The barter rate has also moved to 125 bags of corn for 1 mt of urea.

Urea imports for January-October were reported at 6.2 million mt, up 14 percent from the 5.5 million mt imported during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers so far this year were Qatar at 1.5 million mt, Russia at 1.2 million mt, Algeria at 984,000 mt, and Oman at 843,000 mt.

The Oman total showed a dramatic increase. During the first 10 months of 2020, Brazil only bought 130,000 mt from Oman. Sources said the difference was because OMIFCO tons became available on the world market after negotiations broke down last year between India and the producer.

October imports were pegged at 863,000 mt, up 46 percent from the October 2020 imports of 593,000 mt. The main suppliers last month were Algeria at 181,000 mt, Qatar at 199,000 mt, and Nigeria at 132,000 mt.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA UAN barges continued to be reported in the $545-$550/st ($17.03-$17.19/unit) FOB range.

U.S. Imports:

UAN imports for July-September were up 16.3 percent, to 685,648 st from the year-ago 589,448 st. September imports firmed 49.6 percent, to 270,153 st from the prior year’s 180,584 st total.

Russia captured the top import spot in the July-September fertilizer year-to-date at 315,922 st, a 3.0 percent increase on the year-ago 306,764 st. Trinidad and Tobago followed with 249,858 st, rising 15.1 percent from the prior 217,062 st, while tons from Canada totaled 88,396 st, up 68.7 percent on the prior-year 52,387 st.

U.S. Exports:

UAN exports slipped 20.7 percent in July-September, to 263,892 st from the year-ago 332,956 st. Exports totaled 103,719 st for September, a 25.0 percent slide from the 138,246 st total recorded for September 2020.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources quoted limited UAN-32 pricing in the $585-$610/st ($18.28-$19.06/unit) FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment. UAN-28 was pegged at $515-$522/st ($18.39-$18.64/unit) FOB Cincinnati for Q1 tons, up from the previous week’s $508/st ($18.14/unit) level.

Michigan sources reported sold-out UAN-28 inventories at multiple locations, with indications of new pricing for Q2 shipment in the $570-$580/st ($20.36-$20.71/unit) FOB range for the next expected offers.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market was quoted in the $585-$610/st ($18.28-$19.06/unit) FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low for prompt tons FOB Muscatine, Iowa, and the high for limited Q1 offers at Port Neal, Iowa.

Northern Plains:

Prompt UAN-32 pricing was reported at $595/st ($18.59/unit) FOB Winona, Minn., and $615/st ($19.22/unit) FOB Pine Bend, Minn, while the last UAN-28 offers remained at $540-$550/st ($19.29-$19.64/unit) FOB in North Dakota. “Everyone is waiting on spring prepay, and those numbers have not surfaced yet,” said one source.

In Western Canada, the UAN-28 market had reportedly firmed to C$760/mt DEL for spring tons, up from C$700-$720/mt DEL the previous week.

Northeast:

Sources quoted the Baltimore, Md., market at $615-$620/st ($19.22-$19.38/unit) FOB for UAN-32 and $576.50/st ($19.22/unit) FOB for UAN-30 during the week, while UAN-32 pricing out of terminals in upstate New York had reportedly firmed to $675/st ($21.09/unit) FOB, up a full $95/st since mid-October.

No current offers were reported at Fairless Hills, Pa., during the week.

Eastern Canada:

The UAN-28 market was generally steady at C$735-$775/mt (C$26.25-$27.68/unit) FOB in Eastern Canada, with UAN-32 unchanged at the C$840/mt (C$26.25/unit) FOB level in Ontario for the last reported business.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Brazil, Market Watch, U.S. Exports, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Imports:

Ammonium nitrate imports for September firmed 29.5 percent, to 12,326 st from the prior-year 9,517 st. Imports totaled 64,447 st in the July-September period, a 110.7 percent year-over-year increase from 30,580 st.

U.S. Exports:

Ammonium nitrate exports totaled 37,749 st in September, off 28.7 percent from the year-ago 52,908 st. July-September exports were noted at 122,823 st, down 30.1 percent from the prior-year 175,814 st.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market remained at $640/st FOB El Dorado, Ark., $670/st FOB Lamar, Mo., and $680/st FOB St. Joseph, Mo., for the last reported offers.

Brazil:

January-October ammonium nitrate imports were reported at 1.35 million mt, up 45 percent from 929,000 mt during the same period in 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor. Russia remained the main supplier with 1.32 million mt.

Ammonium Sulfate

Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

New NOLA barge trades were put in the $500-$520/st FOB range, up from the week-ago $500/st FOB.

U.S. Imports:

Imports of ammonium sulfate slipped 33.5 percent in September, to 91,206 st from 137,153 st in September 2020. July-September totals were off 13.7 percent, to 229,154 st from the year-ago 265,524 st.

Canada stood atop the July-September import list with 117,787 st, up 5.7 percent from the prior-year 111,414 st. Tons originating from Belgium totaled 74,071 st, a 34.2 percent jump from 55,188 st last year. South Korea remained in third place with 22,046 st, falling 27.3 percent against 30,313 st recorded through the same period of 2020.

In addition to reduced tonnage from South Korea, sharp import reductions from Russia (zero tons in July-September versus 33,141 st in the year-ago) and the Netherlands (44 st from 31,180 st posted one year earlier) accounted for the market’s contraction.

U.S. Exports:

Ammonium sulfate exports firmed 16.9 percent in July-September, to 179,740 st from the year-ago 153,779 st. Exports totaled 58,794 st for September, however, off 22.9 percent from the year-ago 76,271 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market remained at a firm $535-$545/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the lower end of the range in Illinois and the high FOB Cincinnati. Most Michigan warehouses were reported firmly at the $550/st FOB level for limited tons.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was steady at $530-$550/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis.

Northern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate prices were quoted at $540-$550/st FOB St. Paul for the last offers. While the last delivered sales were confirmed at the $520/st level in North Dakota, sources said new offers had climbed to as high as $570/st.

Northeast:

Sources pegged the ammonium sulfate market at $545-$586/st FOB in the Northeast, depending on grade, location, and time of shipment, up significantly from the $420-$440/st offers reported in mid-October.

Eastern Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices were quoted at C$685-$690/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up from a low of C$620/mt FOB in October.

China:

A 120,000 mt tender by Gresik of Indonesia moved up the price. Sources now peg the market for caprolactam-grade amsul out of China at $380/mt FOB.

The Gresik tender initially showed prices in the upper-$460s/mt CFR. In the end, Gresik countered at $460/mt CFR and was able to secure four cargoes of 20,000 mt for November-December shipping. The Indonesian company is still in negotiations for the rest of the requested tonnage.

Traders dealing with Chinese amsul are focusing more on Southeast Asian sales because freight is less of an issue than sending product to larger buyers, such as Brazil. Sources said the minimum sized vessel to Brazil from China is about 30,000 mt. They noted that it would take too long to secure enough amsul to fill such a ship, so it must share passage with other commodities such as urea or NPKs. With fertilizer exports stopped out of China, the ammonium sulfate sellers cannot find partners to make the Trans-Pacific run.

Instead of shipping large quantities to the Americas, Chinese suppliers and traders are focusing on the nearby Asian buyers, which allows for smaller vessels.

Brazil:

The price of amsul at Paranagua has softened to $485/mt CFR. Sources indicated the softening price has little to do with hoped-for product, but rather realization that tonnage from China is limited and fewer tons are expected to be delivered in the near future.

International traders said it is difficult to fill a 30,000 mt vessel for Brazil. The amsul component of the cargo is not enough, so other fertilizers such as urea or NPKs have to be included in the manifest. With Chinese fertilizer exports shut down, the ammonium sulfate cannot be shipped to the Americas.

Rondonopolis showed a marked increase as local buyers stepped up to grab what tonnage they could before product becomes scarce. Sources put the market price at $660/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Imports of ammonium sulfate remain dominated by China. January-October imports were up 43 percent from last year, to 2.9 million mt, with China supplying 2.3 million of that number, according to Trade Data Monitor. October imports were reported at 373,000 mt, up 30 percent from the October 2020 total of 288,000 mt.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Rapid firming in the NOLA phosphate market pressured Central Florida DAP and MAP trucks higher during the week. DAP postings firmed to $760/st FOB, up from the last-reported $685/st FOB, while MAP lifted to $765/st FOB from the prior $695/st FOB.

MAP trucks loading from North Florida also moved higher, with sources quoting values at $780/st FOB, above the previously-reported $750/st FOB level.

U.S. Gulf:

Phosphate barges loading from NOLA continued to firm for the week.

DAP pricing was quoted at a low of $720/st FOB, up from $673.50/st FOB last week, set by limited trading of domestically-produced material. Sources typically quoted the broader market at $730-$740/st FOB, with continued supply pressure driving expectations of additional increases in the short-term.

Sources described an ongoing MAP supply crunch lifting the price floor to around $745/st FOB up from the prior $720/st FOB. Willing buyers were reported up to $770/st FOB for the week, a step up from the week-ago $760/st FOB top.

Supply uncertainty was cited for the rising values, with reports of Russian export quotas further tightening worldwide phosphate availability.

The nearby DAP market was noted firming to $720-$740/st FOB from the week-ago $673.50-$730/st FOB. MAP barges loading from NOLA were quoted at $745-$770/st FOB, increasing from $720-$760/st FOB at last report.

U.S. Imports:

September DAP imports totaled 73,388 st, off 41.5 percent from the year-ago 125,413 st. July-September volumes totaled 491,589 st, however, a 205.1 percent increase on the year-ago 161,114 st.

Australia held the top import spot for July-September with 140,643 st, followed by 129,740 st from Saudi Arabia, a 114.0 percent increase on the year-ago 60,627 st. Tons loading from Jordan totaled 95,711 st, up 175.5 percent from 34,737 st during the same period last year.

September MAP/Other imports were noted at 19,781 st, rising 50.8 percent from 13,113 st in the prior year. July-September totals stood at 271,017 st, up 301.7 percent from the year-ago 67,472 st.

Nontraditional sources continued to dominate the MAP import space through the fertilizer year-to-date, despite registering no new sales in September. Tunisia led imports with 80,999 st, followed by 63,882 st from Saudi Arabia and 50,368 st from Jordan.

U.S. Exports:

DAP exports for the July-September window were off 45.2 percent, to 114,020 st from 208,154 st. Exports for September totaled 42,480 st, a 40.3 percent decline from 71,101 st in the prior year.

MAP/Other exported from the U.S. in September fell 12.7 percent, to 136,323 st from the prior-year 156,100 st. Exports totaled 564,379 st for July-September, falling 4.5 percent from the year-ago 590,984 st.

Nothing new was reported out of the Gulf phosphate export market for the week. Recent business included a $740/mt FOB trade for an 8,000 mt DAP cargo sold into the northern Latin American markets. Due to limited availability, the tons were slated for shipping in December.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing firmed to $760-$770/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior week’s $720-$760/st FOB range, with the Cincinnati market pegged firmly at the $765-$770/st FOB level at midweek, up from $745-$750/st FOB the week before. MAP was pegged at $795-$810/st FOB in the region.

Michigan warehouse pricing for limited tons was reported at $780/st FOB for DAP and $820/st FOB or higher for MAP.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing was quoted at $740-$760/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis. The MAP market remained at $780-$815/st FOB in the region. In the Southern Plains, the Catoosa/Inola market was pegged $725-$745/st FOB for DAP and $790-$820/st FOB for MAP.

Northern Plains:

DAP was reported at $750-$770/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP quoted at the $800-$830/st FOB level at that location. The last delivered green MAP offers were pegged at the $880-$890/st level in central North Dakota.

Northeast:

Phosphate pricing FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, was confirmed at $785/st for DAP and $825/st for MAP, up $10-$35/st from mid-October. November MAP tons at Fairless Hills were quoted at the $835/st FOB level, up some $25/st from last report.

In the Southeast, Nutrien raised its MAP price FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Spring, Fla., to $780/st during the week, up $30/st from the previous posting.

Eastern Canada:

The MAP market edged up to C$1,100-$1,180/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up C$40/mt at the low end of the range. The last DAP business remained at the C$1,120/mt level FOB Montreal.

Saudi Arabia:

Recent phosphate cargoes loading from Saudi Arabia were quoted in the $750-$770/mt FOB range, rising from $700-$730/mt FOB in the prior report.

India:

Reports of a DAP sale by SABIC into India at $810/mt CFR moved up the posted price. Other deals from China and Jordan put the range at $799-$810/mt CFR.

Tenders looking for more DAP and other phosphates by RCF, NFL, and GSFC came and went with no offers. Sources said the companies have extended the deadlines into next week. Given the current state of the phosphate market, international traders said the buyers will not be able to secure any large quantities on the spot market for some time.

China:

Reports are circulating that about 400,000 mt of DAP is sitting at producers’ warehouses and portside facilities. The producers are reportedly pressuring the government to allow them to export the material because no buyers have stepped up to purchase the product for local distribution.

The move to export comes on the heels of reports that Bangladesh is ready to call a 200,000 mt DAP tender. At the same time, Pakistan has begun expressing interest in buying more DAP as well.

The two countries have traditionally shown a better netback for producers than selling to India. Also, both seem willing to be flexible on delivery times, whereas Indian buyers are much more particular about timely deliveries.

Without any spot sales out of China, industry players looked to other markets to triangulate an estimated price. The recent purchases by India remain a consistent benchmark for deals not yet done, said one trader. After backing out freight and costs from the $799-$810/mt CFR price into India reported this week, sources said prices out of China could be $749-$760/mt FOB.

Traders are careful to point out that this price range is just one for discussion and does not reflect any actual business, however.

Brazil:

Prices at Paranagua moved up as the market still struggles to assess the impact of the Russian government restricting phosphate exports. Paranagua moved up to $840-$850/mt CFR.

The range in Rondonopolis widened as uncertainty also moved inland, with sources reporting the price at $1,000-$1,050/mt FOB ex-warehouse.The barter rate for 1 mt of MAP is now up to 120 bags of corn from the previous 115 bags.

January-October imports this year were reported at 4.2 million mt, up 2 percent from the 4.1 million mt imported during same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers so far this year have been Morocco at 1.7 million mt and Russia at 1.2 million mt. Imports from the U.S. fell to 182,000 mt from 463,000 mt in January-October 2020.

October imports were pegged at 575,000 mt, up 32 percent from October 2020 imports of 437,000 mt. Morocco was the primary supplier at 194,000 mt, which was down 18 percent from October 2020. Russian imports were up dramatically, to 130,000 mt from 65,000 mt in October 2020. Chinese imports were also up, to 104,000 mt from 27,000 mt in 2020.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Phosphoric Acid, U.S. Exports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Exports:

Wet-process phosphoric acid exports moved 13.0 percent higher in September, to 42,253 st from the prior-year 37,387 st. July-September exports ticked up 0.4 percent, to 85,911 st from the previous 85,527 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing for November was steady at $15.40/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and Wisconsin and $15.55/unit rail-DEL in Ohio, up $0.50/unit from October.

Western Cornbelt:

November phos acid pricing was quoted at $15.30/unit rail-DEL in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri, up $0.50/unit from October.

Northern Plains:

Phos acid pricing for November was reported at $15.40/unit rail-DEL in Minnesota and $15.55/unit rail-DEL in the Dakotas, reflecting a $0.50/unit increase from October levels.

India:

The fourth-quarter contract price of phosphoric acid delivered to India was quoted at $1,330/mt P2O5 CFR, a $170/mt boost from $1,160/mt P2O5 CFR in the prior period. The pricing was good on tons loaded from both Morocco and North America.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Potash Muriate, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA potash barges remained flat at $670-$685/st FOB.

U.S. Imports:

July-September MOP imports softened 1.6 percent year-over-year, to 3.29 million st from 3.35 million st. September imports were down 13.9 percent, to 1.03 million st from the year-ago 1.19 million st.

Canada sent 2.82 million st during the July-September period, off 4.9 percent from the year-ago 2.96 million st. Russia’s 176,870 st was down 17.1 percent from the prior-year 213,251 st, while Belarus sent 174,035 st, a 26.4 percent increase from the year-ago 137,707 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The potash market was quoted at $710-$730/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $715-$725/st FOB amid “very snug” inventories. Sources said they expect Q1 offers in the $720-$750/st FOB range Michigan warehouses when the next round of pricing is announced.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash remained at $700-$730/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with the St. Louis market pegged in the $700-$720/st FOB range for the week.

Northern Plains:

Potash FOB St. Paul was quoted at $710-$735/st FOB during the week. The last prices FOB Saskatchewan mines were reported at $665-$710/st FOB after netbacks, depending on grade and destination.

Northeast:

Potash pricing edged up to a solid $750/st FOB in the Northeast for Q4, Q1, and Q2 offers.

Eastern Canada:

Potash prices had reportedly jumped to C$985/mt FOB Ontario warehouses for new offers, although sources said most of the last actual business was done at the C$840/mt level for Q4 shipment.

Brazil:

Sources said prices have tightened on growing concerns about the lineup of vessels waiting to unload their cargoes of MOP. Prices in Paranagua are reported at $800-$810/mt CFR. Sources said the demand remains steady for MOP, but getting the product off the vessels and to the inland distributors continues to remain a concern.

Rondonopolis showed a minor uptick in pricing to $950/mt FOB ex-warehouse.The barter rate remained steady at 112 bags of corn for 1 mt of MOP.

January-October MOP imports were up 12.6 percent, to 10.4 million mt from 9.2 million mt during the same period in 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main suppliers were Canada at 3.4 million mt, Russia at 3 million mt, and Belarus at 1.96 million mt.

October imports were pegged at 1.4 million mt, up 38 percent from 1 million mt in October 2020. The top suppliers were Canada at 549,000 mt, Russia at 425,000 mt, Germany at 160,000 mt, and Belarus at 142,000 mt.