All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Northwestern Europe, Russia, South Central, Southern Plains, Tampa, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia climbed to $825/mt CFR for November, up 24 percent from October’s $665/mt CFR, exceeding expectations for many observers. The market followed higher international prices, as well as inland U.S. prices that had ratcheted up over the past six weeks.

In the meantime, the NOLA barge equivalent to Tampa would be $749/st FOB. However, as Green Markets went to press there was a report of a barge sale that topped the $1,000/st FOB mark.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Limited ammonia offers remained at $1,090-$1,100/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the higher numbers in Indiana and Ohio. There were unconfirmed reports of prompt pricing at the $925/st level FOB Courtright, Ont., for truck offers into the Michigan market in late October.

Western Cornbelt:

Wet conditions in late October put a stop to what one source described as heavy fall ammonia application in the Western Cornbelt on Oct. 22-24. “I suspect by mid-November, it’ll go gangbusters again,” he said.

The last confirmed ammonia prices remained at $1,085-$1,090/st FOB in Nebraska and $1,090-$1,110/st FOB in Iowa, depending on location.

Southern Plains:

Southern Plains sources reported ammonia pricing offers out of regional production points firmly at the $1,000/st FOB level at midweek.

South Central:

The ammonia market had reportedly firmed to a broad $780-$950/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals for truck offers in late October, depending on location, with the high reported at Donaldsonville, La., Those levels were up dramatically from the $620-$650/st FOB range reported earlier in the month.

No current offers were on the table at El Dorado, Ark., Cherokee, Ala., or Midway, Tenn.

Russia:

An ammonia leak at a liquid complex fertilizer unit of PhosAgro subsidiary JSC Apatit at Cherepovets early on Oct. 28 has not impacted the plant’s operations or production, according to the Russian fertilizer producer. A company statement, cited by Bloomberg, said a “short-term release of a small amount of ammonia” occurred at 7:12 a.m. local time.

One PhosAgro employee and two contractors were hospitalized. The company said the discharge of ammonia was “insignificant” and contained, and that there was no threat to the environment or residents of Cherepovets, according to the statement.

Citing PhosAgro, Interfax reported that a safety system was activated at the plant following the unplanned stoppage of equipment, which briefly discharged “a negligible” amount of ammonia through the safety vent.

Black Sea:

The high price of natural gas has forced most ammonia producers to shut down. Sources said the few tons that are moving are reserve tons that were booked long ago. Producers kept running to make sure they could cover outstanding contracts. What will happen after those agreements are fulfilled is anyone’s guess, according to sources.

The lack of any spot deals leaves the price at $710/mt FOB. The shortage of material is expected to last well into the first quarter of 2022. Sources speculated that prices of gas might come down by March 2022 and the diversion of gas to home heating will end, allowing more for the industrial sector. The hoped-for return to production in the area could ease pressure on buyers as more product potentially enters the market.

Middle East:

The market is rife with reports that a deal into Europe at $900-$910/mt C&F was done. Sources said the deal was done with material from the Arab Gulf for a netback of $750-$800/mt FOB.

The nebulous nature of the deal has left many wondering if it really happened. However, despite their doubts, industry sources talk about the deal as reality. Talk of pricing revolves around $800/mt FOB, with barely a nod to the possibility of a lower price.

Northwest Europe:

The rumored deal at $900-$910/mt C&F is discussed as a done deal, even though there is little to back up the claim. Sources said even if the deal was not done, the low $900s/mt C&F is where the price should be for now.

The market got some good news when the Russian president said Gazprom should renew shipping natural gas to Western Europe after the Russian reserves are fully covered. Sources estimated more gas should begin flowing westward after Nov. 4.

The announcement prompted lower prices for gas in Europe, leading ammonia producers to hope that they will soon be able to restart their operations. One trader said even if the lower priced gas is made available, the ammonia producers will be receiving material at least through December that was booked at higher prices but never delivered. A break in the high ammonia prices is expected in January.

Sources said Baltic producers and their buyers have yet to come to an agreement on November pricing. One trader said the market would be lucky if the new price was announced by Nov. 1.

India:

Buyers are getting their contracted tons, but at ever higher prices. Even with those rising prices, sources said the contract price is still lower than what the buyers would face if they were required to buy spot tons – provided any were available.

The last price paid on the spot market for India was reported at $670/mt FOB. With prices now hitting $800/mt FOB from the Arab Gulf, sources said the spot market into India would be closer to $850-$860/mt CFR, if product was available.

Thailand:

January-September ammonia imports were up 12 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 306,000 mt from 273,000 mt imported in the first nine months of 2020. Malaysia was the dominant supplier with 197,000 mt.

Third-quarter imports in 2021 were down 4 percent, to 96,000 mt from 100,000 mt imported during the same period last year. September 2021 imports were up 6 percent, to 36,000 mt from 34,000 mt imported in the same month of 2020. Australia and Malaysia covered nearly all the business this September at 18,000 mt and 16,000 mt, respectively.

Urea

Baltic Sea, Bangladesh, Black Sea, Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Europe, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Pakistan, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

While NOLA urea barges had been drifting lower in recent weeks, sources said a midweek spike in Arab Gulf and Egyptian prices caused the NOLA market to spike. Several sources said NOLA had been trading too far behind international prices for too long.

NOLA urea ratcheted up from early-week trades of $685/st FOB to as high as $720/st FOB for October/November, versus the week-ago $680-$700/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources quoted the urea market at $725-$735/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt in late October, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea pricing was quoted at $740-$760/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $10/st from last report, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo. The market FOB Caruthersville, Mo., was pegged at the $745/st FOB level at midweek.

In the Northern Plains, the St. Paul, Minn., urea market had reportedly firmed to $770-$780/st FOB and potentially higher as the week advanced.

Southern Plains:

The urea market was reported at $730-$750/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla., depending on supplier and time of shipment, with the Houston, Texas, market pegged firmly at the $730/st FOB level for prompt tons at midweek. Urea pricing FOB Enid, Okla., was quoted at the $735-$740/st level for prompt shipment.

South Central:

Urea pricing in the South Central region was quoted at $710-$760/st FOB in late October, up $10-$15/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Convent, La, and the high at Shreveport, La. Other prices at midweek included $730/st FOB Ohio River terminals in Kentucky, $740-$745/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., and $750/st FOB Arkansas River terminals.

Southeast:

The urea market in the Southeast was quoted at $730/st FOB Savannah, Ga., $750/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., and $700-$750/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., with the high reported for November tons.

India:

The industry was shocked on Oct. 26 when RCF called a tender that allowed only producers to participate and for shipment to only West Coast ports. The tender will close on Nov. 2, with a shipping deadline of Dec. 11. Rumors are flying that a follow-up tender that will allow trader participation might be called shortly after this one closes.

Throughout the week, traders and some producers were considering the rationale for the move. One trader noted that in previous tenders the traders are the ones with the best delivered price. He said in most tenders, the few producers that participate often put in an FOB price that is almost the same as the delivered price submitted by traders. For example, the July 21 RCF tender had a PIC offer of $498/mt FOB, against low offers from traders at $510-$517/mt CFR. The March 21 tender had offers from producers at $368/mt and $380/mt FOB and low offers from traders at $380/mt CFR.

Rumors circulating in the market suggest that RCF excluded traders because they figured traders would not be able to secure tons on a short notice. They pointed to the urea export ban from China and limited tonnage available from Arab Gulf suppliers.

In the end, this tender is expected to soak up whatever extra tons producers have. However, no one expects to see any major discounts in pricing, especially after reports that SABIC closed a deal near the end of the week at $850/mt FOB and AlexFert in Egypt sold a November cargo at $900/mt FOB.

Estimates of how many tons RCF will be able to secure are put in the 400,000-600,000 mt range. One trader said 800,000 mt might be offered, if RCF is lucky.Based on the Saudi sale, the landed price into India would be about $880/mt CFR. Sources said given the rapid rise in prices around the world, the Saudi price might look cheap by Nov. 1.

Sources estimated that only four or five Arab Gulf producers will participate. Participation from Indonesian producers is not expected because the rules of selling urea out of Indonesia require a public tender as the first step in achieving a deal.

The tender closes just as the Diwali holiday kicks in. Large portions of Indian society and the government will be closed from four to 20 days for celebrations. Any subsequent tender would have to be issued either immediately after the current tender closes, or a week later.

Sources estimated that India is still 2-2.5 million mt short of its urea needs for the current season. One trader suggested that RCF may need to keep calling a tender each month until the end of the fiscal year in March.

Middle East:

Arab Gulf prices jumped from $785/mt FOB at the beginning of the week to $850/mt FOB. The first deal was 10,000 mt sold by Fertiglobe on Oct. 25. By Oct. 27, reports were confirmed that SABIC sold 45,000 mt at $850/mt FOB. Both deals were for November loadings.

Sources said the Indian Department of Fertilizers is still in talks with OMIFCO to obtain favorable rates on urea for the first quarter of 2022. Sources said OMIFCO sent notices to Yara and Swiss Singapore that it was canceling their offload contracts. A similar deal with Ameropa was not immediately affected, one trader said, because Ameropa handles its OMIFCO tons through the Omani trading house OQ.

Industry watchers are not sure how many tons will be affected by the cancelation of the contracts to the two trading houses. Sources said some of the material may still be loaded to cover immediate contract requirements.

Sources said extra material for the Indian tender is limited. One trader said at best he could only see 400,000 mt being available. Others said the number could be higher – as much as 800,000 mt – but most figured 600,000 mt or less.

The paper market for the Arab Gulf is already behind the actual market. Sources said the value was pegged at $805/mt FOB just as the Saudi deal at $850/mt FOB became known.

Egyptian prices moved up throughout the week. MOPCO sold 20,000 mt at $850/mt FOB at the beginning of the week. Within 48 hours, reports were confirmed that AlexFert sold a November cargo at $900/mt FOB. In the midst of those sales, Abu Qir closed a tender for 20,000 mt. No news from the tender was available at press time.

Sources said the high prices were being supported by European buyers looking to ensure full reserves for the next application season. One of the reasons more buyers are stepping up and paying the higher Egyptian prices is because of the lack of material from the Black Sea. High natural gas prices have shut down the Ukrainian urea producers, leaving a gap in the Mediterranean supply market.

As with the Arab Gulf, the paper market for Egypt at $807.50/mt FOB for November shipments was outstripped by actual sales.

Black Sea:

Sources reported discussion out of Yuzhnyy at $750/mt FOB. One trader pointed out, however, that the price is just a discussion of where things would be if there were any tons available.

Traders said there are some urea cargoes still being loaded and shipped from reserves built up before the Ukrainian plants closed due to high operating costs. The tons being shipped are reportedly under contracts or formula-based deals.

Sources put the freight rate to West Coast India at $60-$70/mt. At that rate, the Indian market would be $810-$820/mt CFR. However, working the other way, taking the Saudi price of $850/mt FOB to India comes up with a landed price of $880/mt CFR. Working back to Yuzhnyy would mean a netback of $810-$820/mt FOB.

Sources said given the volatile nature of the urea market, either price could be accepted as a legitimate market price for Yuzhnyy. The odds, however, are in favor of the higher rate. Traders said they will be looking at the final prices offered into India to get a sense of where the Black Sea might be called.

No extra tons are expected to come out of Yuzhnyy until the first quarter of 2022. By then, sources said they hoped natural gas prices will come down and demand for home heating will have eased enough that plants could once against begin production.

Baltic:

Sources reported prices being discussed at $780/mt FOB for prills and $800/mt FOB for granular. Sales from the area are mostly Russian material targeted at Latin America.

Industry watchers said the Russian producers were not hit as hard with high natural gas prices as the Ukrainians or Europeans, thus allowing them to keep producing. With rising prices of urea, the plants are said to be able to cover their production costs.

Europe:

Little was reported in the way of new urea sales in Europe, as farmers focus on fieldwork rather than on purchases. Export prices out of Egypt and from other regional suppliers continued to move up, however, and this was reflected in the region’s latest CFR price ranges.

Indonesia:

Producers have gone quiet. After some initial rumblings of a possible tender this week, the announcement of the RCF/India urea tender stopped any further sales discussions.Sources said the producers want to see what the Arab Gulf producers are ready to offer and what India is ready to accept before calling their own tender.

In the past, some Indonesian material was sent to India under their tenders. Those tons, however, were always handled by traders who had purchased the material in tenders or had negotiated based on tender results. The requirement that offshore sales can only be linked to a selling tender is expected to keep the Indonesian producers from offering material directly in the RCF tender that closes on Nov. 1.

Already prices are looking as if they should be in the $800s/mt FOB, despite the last sale at $502/mt FOB.

Sources pointed to a deal from Malaysia to South Korea that reportedly came in with a netback to Petronas at $810/mt FOB. Traders said the equivalent price into Indonesia would be a few bucks cheaper. Once the RCF tender closes, Indonesian producers will be looking at the tender results and the South Korean deal to determine what their new reserve price should be.

Pakistan:

TCP called a tender for 100,000 mt of urea to close Nov. 22. Shipment is for December and January. Sources had speculated the rising price of urea could force TCP to hold off on the tender until the market cooled down. The purchase will be used to build reserves for next year.

Bangladesh:

The government approved the immediate purchase of 90,000 mt of granular urea. Domestic producer KAFCO will supply 30,000 mt at $740/mt ex-warehouse. An additional 30,000 mt is slated to come from Muntajat at $720/mt CFR. The final third of the portion is slated to come from SABIC at $740/mt CFR.

These prices are currently well below market reports, especially from the Arab Gulf. The deal is being handled by BCIC, which may have earlier secured the tons at lower prices.

Brazil:

Urea prices are edging up. A late-week deal by Ameropa into Paranagua from Oman was reported at $835/mt CFR, putting the new market range at $800-$835/mt CFR.

Sources said there were few deals this week as both sides waited to see what happens in India with the RCF urea tender. Sources said if the price into India hits $900/mt CFR, the market could see a shift away from Brazil to India, leaving Brazil short of product.

Prices inland continue to make dramatic upward moves. Sources put the Rondonopolis price at $940-$1,000/mt FOB ex-warehouse, up $20-$80/mt in just one week.

Sources said some tension is brewing inland as rumors of a potential truck strike circulated. The details of the strike and what areas will be affected are still up in the air. The barter price in Mato Grosso has moved to 118 bags of corn per mt of urea, up from 111 bags.

Thailand:

January-September urea imports were down two percent, to 1.87 million mt from 1.9 million mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor.

Third-quarter 2021 imports were reported at 677,000 mt, about 11 percent down from the 761,000 mt reported from the same period in 2020.September 2021 imports were pegged at 285,000 mt, down 14 percent from 331,000 mt in September 2020.

UAN

Eastern Cornbelt, Europe, France, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Market players put NOLA UAN barges in the $535-$545/st ($16.72-$17.03/unit) FOB range, up from the week-ago $525-$535/st ($16.41-$16.72/unit) FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources described limited UAN-32 pricing in the $585-$610/st ($18.28-$19.06/unit) FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, up another $10-$15/st from the prior week, with the low reported at Cincinnati and the high at Seneca, Ill. Earlier offers at $565/st ($17.66/unit) FOB Mt. Vernon, Ind., were now reportedly off the table.

Western Cornbelt:

Limited UAN-32 offers were quoted in the $585-$610/st ($18.28-$19.06/unit) FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the St. Louis and Fort Dodge, Iowa, markets reported at the $600/st ($18.75/unit) FOB level at midweek.

Southern Plains:

Sources quoted the last UAN-32 offers in the $560-$590/st ($17.50-$18.44/unit) range FOB regional production points in the Southern Plains, with the “if you can find it” caveat. Delivered pricing to central Texas from Gulf Coast terminals was reported at the $650/st ($21.31/unit) level, up $100/st from the previous week.

South Central:

The UAN-32 market in the South Central region was reported at $530-$550/st ($16.56-$17.19/unit) FOB Memphis and up to $565/st ($17.66/unit) FOB Ohio River terminals in Kentucky, but sources said prompt quotes were difficult to find in late October.

Southeast:

UAN-32 prices at terminal locations in the Southeast were reported in the $550-$600/st ($17.19-$18.75/unit) FOB range, up nearly $100/st since early October, with the lower end of the range reported in the Georgia market. New pricing FOB Fairless Hills was quoted at $530/st ($16.56/unit) FOB on Oct. 25, up $25/st from the prior week.

Europe/France:

Regional availability remains tight with continuing upward price pressure. In France, most buying requirements are said to be covered until the first quarter of next year. Spot prices for UAN-30 were unchanged in the €575-€620/mt FCA Rouen range.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market had reportedly firmed to $630/st FOB Missouri terminals for new offers, up dramatically from the $440-$450/st FOB pricing reported earlier in October.

LSB Industries announced on Oct. 29 that it is increasing its ammonium nitrate prices at all locations, effective immediately. The new dealer reference list prices include $640/st FOB El Dorado, Ark., $670/st FOB Lamar, Mo., and $680/st FOB St. Joseph, Mo.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium nitrate prices were moving higher in the Southern Plains, with limited new offers reported at $550/st FOB in Oklahoma, up a full $115/st since the first of the month.

South Central:

Terminal prices for ammonium nitrate were higher in the South Central region, with the last business reported at $535/st FOB Yazoo City, Miss., and up to $600/st FOB in Kentucky. Sources said most offers were off the table in late October, however.

Southeast:

The Tampa ammonium nitrate market had reportedly jumped to the $550/st FOB level for new offers, up $50/st from the last confirmed business earlier in October.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

While NOLA barges had been previously done at $415/st FOB, sources said new IOC postings of $500/st FOB drove up expectations for the next piece of business. Players put the range at $450-$460/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was pegged in a broad range at $450-$540/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of the week.

IOC on Oct. 26 announced higher pricing for granular ammonium sulfate, citing sharp price increases for raw materials. New postings included $535/st FOB Illinois River terminals and $540/st FOB Ohio River terminals, up $95-$100/st from IOC’s last pricing offers on Oct. 1.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market ranged broadly in the Western Cornbelt, from a low of $450-$475/st FOB to a high of $540/st FOB as the week progressed, depending on location.

IOC’s Oct. 26 postings included $530/st FOB St. Louis, $535/st FOB Upper Mississippi River terminals, $550/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, and $550/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains.

Southern Plains:

The low end of the granular ammonium sulfate market in the Southern Plains remained at the $400/st level FOB Houston for some confirmed business early in the week, but pricing moved up dramatically from there. New postings from IOC on Oct. 26 included $500/st FOB Houston, up $100/st from the company’s Oct. 1 list price. Rail-DEL pricing from IOC firmed to $540/st in the Southern Plains.

The Catoosa/Inola ammonium sulfate market also ranged broadly. While sources quoted offers early in the week at $450/st FOB and “hard to find,” some suppliers reportedly raised prices at the port to as high as $545/st FOB at midweek.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices ranged broadly in the South Central region, from a low of $440-$450/st FOB Memphis to a high of $525/st FOB Shreveport. New postings from IOC on Oct. 26 included $530/st FOB Delta terminals, up $95/st from the company’s previous list price.

Southeast:

Sources continued to quote the low end of the ammonium sulfate market in the Southeast at $325/st FOB for standard and $375/st FOB for granular in Florida, but higher postings were in effect.

New list prices FOB Hopewell, Va., as of Oct. 16 included $420/st for granular, $400/st for mid-grade, and $380/st for standard, up $85/st from AdvanSix’s last posting on Sept. 20. IOC on Oct. 26 raised its granular ammonium sulfate price to $545/st FOB Tampa, Fla., up $90/st from the company’s Oct. 1 posting.

China:

Prices jumped to $350/mt FOB, providing a nice profit for holders of ammonium sulfate and severe sticker shock to buyers in Southeast Asia and Brazil. The jump came as production of amsul wanes and as rumors circulate that the Chinese government may add ammonium sulfate to the export ban order.

Sources said so far, the higher export price is not being reflected in deals to Chinese domestic NPK blenders. One trader said, however, if the price does begin to rise appreciably in the domestic market, the government may step in to keep any amsul from leaving China.

Brazil:

The market showed only slight fluctuations in Paranagua, settling in at $430-$480/mt CFR for granular ammonium sulfate. Sources reported some concern with the ability to secure all the tons necessary from China. Already there are reports of some orders not being fully covered.

Rondonopolis remains steady at $500/mt FOB ex-warehouse, despite growing concerns that China may limit amsul exports and that transportation from the ports to inland warehouses could be disrupted by a trucker strike.

Thailand:

January-September imports of ammonium sulfate were up 40 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 351,000 mt from the 252,000 mt imported during the same period in 2020. China was the main supplier this year at 278,000 mt, with South Korea a distant second at 55,000 mt.

Third-quarter imports for 2021 were down about 34 percent, to 73,000 mt from 110,000 mt imported during the same period last year.September 2021 imports were reported at only 3,700 mt, compared with 13,000 mt imported in September 2020.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Saudi Arabia, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

DAP trucks loading from Central Florida were posted at $685/st FOB for the week, unmoved from the prior report. MAP truck postings were reported at $695/st FOB, also steady from one week earlier.

MAP loaded to trucks from North Florida continued to be priced at $750/st FOB. Supply was described as tightly allocated through the remainder of the year.

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA phosphate barge prices continued to drop lower for the week, with reduced trade volumes and a thinning number of upper river destinations open to NOLA-loading barges reportedly refocusing some market attention further upriver.

DAP barges loading from NOLA in October and November were generally heard at a $670/st FOB low, unchanged from one week earlier, while sources reported trading up to $674/st FOB, down from the week-ago $680/st FOB high. Most business was heard landing around the $672/st FOB mark.

NOLA MAP barges also softened, with players reporting a weekly $755/st FOB price floor, below the previous $760/st FOB. The top of the range was seen softening $5/st from the prior $765/st FOB, to about $760/st FOB.

The nearby NOLA barge market was reported in the $670-$674/st FOB range for DAP, falling from $670-$680/st FOB the week before. MAP barges were reported at $755-$760/st FOB NOLA, a decline from $760-$765/st FOB in the prior report.

U.S. Exports:

Mosaic reported an 8,000 mt DAP cargo sold from the Gulf into northern Latin America. Priced at $740/mt FOB, the material was not slated for loading until December due to tight nearby availability.

Based on limited reported transactions, the Gulf export phosphate markets were noted firming to $740/mt FOB. DAP was previously reported at $660/mt FOB, with MAP called $685/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing slipped to $715-$740/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $10-$15/st from the previous week, with the low reported at Cincinnati and the high FOB Ottawa, Ill. The MAP market was pegged at $785-$810/st FOB, with the low again confirmed at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing was quoted at $710-$730/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and supplier, with the low at St. Louis and the high reported at Caruthersville. The Dubuque, Iowa, market fell in the $710-$725/st FOB range at midweek.

The MAP market was pegged at $780-$810/st FOB in the region, down $10/st from last report at the lower end of the range.

Southern Plains:

The DAP market was pegged at $725-$735/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, down $5-$10/st from last report, with the Houston market quoted firmly at the $735/st FOB level at midweek. MAP pricing had reportedly slipped to $790-$810/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and $815/st FOB Houston.

South Central:

DAP pricing in the South Central region was pegged at $720-$725/st FOB Memphis, $730/st FOB Little Rock, Ark., and $735/st FOB Shreveport in late October.

Southeast:

Sources also reported limited DAP offers at $720-$730/st FOB Wilmington during the week, down $10/st from last report. The last MAP price FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., was reported at the $750/st FOB level, with no DAP available.

In the Northeast, MAP pricing at Fairless Hills remained at $810/st FOB for late November-December shipment.

Saudi Arabia:

Saudi Arabia phosphate exports were heard firming to the $655-$690/mt FOB range, up from $650-$685/mt FOB published previously.

China:

Sources said there are no new spot DAP deals, and so no way to test new prices. However, reportedly some cargoes are being allowed out as the various customs offices work to unify their procedures to limit exports as decreed earlier by the government.

Sources said the cargoes that are being allowed out seem to be all long-term contract tons sold by state enterprises to Indian buyers. The price was negotiated long before the export ban was in place, and is far lower than current market levels.

Sources said a recent sale by OCP to India at $780/mt CFR would have an equivalent netback price into China of $750/mt FOB.

India:

Sources reported an OCP sale of two DAP cargoes to India at $780/mt CFR. The price fits in with estimates by traders earlier in the week that India had moved to $750/mt CFR from the $680s/mt CFR.

India still needs more DAP for this season, and it also seems to be willing to pay for it. The recent increase in funds for fertilizer subsidies will make the purchases easier. However, sources said the nearly $100/mt jump in prices could exhaust the additional funds and still leave a large gap for future purchases.

Brazil:

The MAP market in Paranagua is stable, but with some slight upward movement. Sources now put the price at $800-$803/mt CFR.

The steady increase in prices has prompted farm groups to encourage farmers to use less fertilizer for future applications. The concern is not only over the ever-higher prices, but also over the worsening barter ratio between the fertilizers and crops. The barter rate in Mato Grosso for 1 mt of MAP is now pegged at 115 bags of corn, compared with 110 bags last week.

The price for MAP in Rondonopolis has moved up from $920/mt to $930-$1,005/mt FOB ex-warehouse. These rising prices are beginning to cause some concern that farmers may soon pull out of the market and make do with what is already on hand.

TSP

Market Watch, South Central, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Defying a softening trend seen in the broader NOLA phosphate markets, sources quoted TSP barges firming to $620-$630/st FOB on tight physical supply. The market was previously noted at $610-$620/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market was quoted at $665-$685/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in late October, with the upper end reported at Caruthersville and reflecting a $10/st increase.

South Central:

The TSP warehouse market was reported at $660-$685/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low at Memphis and the high out of Arkansas River terminals.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Southern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

No 10-34-0 pricing was confirmed in the Eastern Cornbelt in late October. “There are absolutely no quotes in the marketplace currently,” reported once regional contact late in the week.

Western Cornbelt:

No current 10-34-0 prices were confirmed in the Western Cornbelt.

Southern Plains:

The 10-34-0 market was pegged at $665-$690/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low reported for the last confirmed business. The 11-37-0 market in Texas was quoted firmly at the $740-$750/st FOB level in late October.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, Canada, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Potash Muriate, South Central, Southeast, Southern Plains, Thailand, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA potash price quotes were nearing the $700/st FOB mark last week and were meeting resistance. Sources put the last done business at $670-$685/st, up from $650-$685/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The potash market was quoted at $710-$730/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash remained at $700-$730/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the St. Louis market pegged at $710-$715/st FOB and Caruthersville pricing reported at $725/st FOB at midweek.

Southern Plains:

Potash pricing was pegged at $725-$745/st FOB in the Southern Plains, with the low confirmed at Catoosa/Inola and the high at Houston. The last postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $675/st FOB for 60 percent white granular and $695/st FOB for 62 percent white standard.

South Central:

The potash market had reportedly firmed to $720-$740/st FOB in the South Central region, up another $25-$30/st from last report, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high at Shreveport. Most Arkansas River warehouses were pegged at the $725-$730/st FOB range in late October.

Southeast:

Potash was quoted at $700/st FOB Wilmington for the last prompt offers, with the latest offer FOB Fairless Hills reported at the $750/st level for Q4 tons.

China:

Potash prices in China were reported to have dropped by around 10 percent from the decade-high levels reached in August, following the Oct. 15 announcement by the government of planned auctions of state reserves. The auctions took place on Oct. 20-22.

According to an Oct. 25 report by Beijing-based Caixin Global, citing the latest government data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the price of domestic potash dropped to 3,281 yuan/ton ($513.8/mt), down 11.5 percent from Aug. 5, while the price of imported potash fell by 9 percent from its peak on Aug. 15, to 3,647 yuan/ton.

The two bidding sessions that took place on Oct. 20-22 offered potash supplied by state-owned CNAMPGC Holding Ltd. Corp., Sinofert Holdings Ltd., and Cncc Fine Chemical Co. Ltd.

Sinofert Holdings and CNAMPGC, along with Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co. Ltd. (QSL), last month were fined by the country’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for “price gouging” on sales of potash (GM Oct. 1, p. 1). SAMR fined Sinofert Holdings and CNAMPGC each 2.6 million yuan, and QSL was fined 1.6 million yuan “for their behaviors in potassium chloride transactions this year” that violated China’s Price Law.

Unnamed analysts, cited by the Caixin Global report, cautioned that releasing domestic reserves only goes so far to solve the country’s potash shortages, however, since the reserves come from domestic firms, while many Chinese fertilizer firms remain reliant on imports.

China’s national potash reserves in recent years have typically been maintained at the 1.5 million mt level. The country’s potash inventory at the ports has been steady at 2.0-2.3 million mt since the summer. Port inventory was reported at 2.2 million mt as of Oct. 26, according to a China Fertilizer Week report. China’s potash imports through the end of September were down 11 percent year-over-year, to 6.1 million mt.

Canada:

Canpotex Ltd. on Oct. 28 said it is now fully committed on potash sales volumes through the end of this year. The export organization said this is due to continued strong demand and solid fundamentals for agricultural commodities in key offshore markets.

Canpotex said the focus on food security in a number of its markets is also providing continued demand for potash.

Brazil:

Softer prices were the main topic of discussion in Paranagua after rumors circulated that any possible sanctions imposed on BPC by the U.S. might not affect Brazil. At the same time, the arrival of more product at the ports also provided more liquidity in the market. Prices moderated a bit, to $760-$825/mt CFR.

Helping ease the pricing situation are reports that more vessels laden with MOP are gaining access to the unloading berths. However, inland buyers are still concerned that once this product is unloaded at the ports, getting it to the local distributors and blenders may still be an issue because of the limited availability of trucks and rumors of a trucker strike.

The price in Rondonopolis widened to $900-$970/mt FOB ex-warehouse.The barter rate in Mato Grosso has also shifted to 112 bags of corn for 1 mt of MOP, compared with 105 bags last week.

Thailand:

January-September imports of MOP were reported at 783,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 32 percent jump from the 592,000 mt imported during the same period in 2020. The main suppliers were Canada at 291,000 mt and Belarus at 258,000 mt.

Third-quarter imports were up slightly, at 269,000 mt compared with 265,000 mt imported during the same period last year. September 2021 imports were reported at 106,000 mt, compared with 59,000 mt in September 2020.