All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

No changes were reported in the Central Florida DAP and MAP markets. DAP truck offers remained at $640/st FOB, while truck-loaded MAP was posted $10/st lower, at $630/st FOB.

MAP trucks loading from North Florida were posted at $650/st FOB, sources said, steady from the prior report.

US Gulf:

The NOLA DAP market was fighting for direction during the week. Prices for prompt tons were reported spiking compared to week-ago levels, while values softened for full-May loading.

Players reported full-May DAP barges available at $510-$520/st FOB early in the May 5-11 trading period, slipping from the prior $520/st FOB, while offers tracked as low as $500/st FOB later in the week. A June barge traded at $490/st FOB on May 11, sources said.

Market watchers also reported a prompt NOLA barge selling for $630/st FOB, a premium to full-May not seen in the prior week, while prompt upriver trades were noted at a $620/st FOB NOLA-equivalent.

Rumors of additional higher-priced DAP business were largely believed to stem from upriver sales and offers, and were thought to be largely untenable for NOLA-loaded tons.

“(There are) still rumors of higher loaded DAP barges trading,” said one trader, “but I think it is only possible/happening upriver with a barge in the right spot at the right time.”

Sources reported few, if any, MAP barges changing hands, leaving pricing unchanged from the week-ago $485-$500/st FOB. Updated offers were reported in a $490-$510/st FOB range, while public bids maxed out at $475/st FOB, resulting in no confirmed business.

Players attributed the market’s volatility to a mix of seasonal softness, a strong expected May-June import lineup, and ongoing shipping slowdowns resulting from flooding on the Upper Mississippi River.

NOLA DAP barges were reported stretching to a $500-$630/st FOB range for the week, a change from $520/st FOB in the prior report. With no new business reported, MAP barges continued at $485-$500/st FOB, steady from last report.

US Imports:

March DAP imports were 300,800 st, up 475.8% from the year-ago 52,240 st. July-March volumes fell 22.0%, however, to 745,394 st from the prior 955,900 st.

July-March imports from Saudi Arabia stood at 442,230 st, and imports from Australia were 119,060 st. Tunisia and Jordan registered their first cargoes to the US of the 2022-2023 fertilizer year in March, sending 74,957 st and 60,616 st, respectively.

March MAP/Other imports were noted at 34,065 st, down 50.9% from 69,339 st in March 2022. July-March exports were essentially flat at 704,480 st, compared to the year-ago 704,677 st.

The US imported 279,475 st of MAP from Russia in July-March, ahead of 211,091 st from Saudi Arabia and 102,962 st from Australia. Mexico added 87,364 st.

US Exports:

DAP exports were up 14.3% in July-March, lifting to 592,948 st from the year-ago 518,781 st. March exports punched in at 65,876 st, however, down 33.2% from 98,663 st recorded one year earlier.

MAP/Other exports softened 22.9% in March, to 238,353 st from the prior-year 309,073 st. Exports were counted at 1.60 million st for July-March, 8.0% below the year-ago 1.74 million st.

Nothing new was reported on the week’s Gulf export market, leaving last done unchanged at $550/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phosphate prices remained strong in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by tight supply and brisk demand. DAP was pegged in a broad range at $720-$780/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP reported at $715-$745/st FOB. After reports of supply outages last week, new offers at Cincinnati were reported at $775/st FOB for DAP and $740/st FOB for MAP.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP slipped to a broad $700-$770/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market pegged in the $700-$750/st FOB range. MAP remained at $710-$735/st FOB in the region, with St. Louis pricing reported at the $725/st FOB level.

Northern Plains:

Fueled by tight supply, the MAP market firmed to $705/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, and $710/st FOB St. Paul. “MAP is very tight in the Cities with a lot of locations waiting on resupply after the river was closed down,” said one industry contact. “Now that navigation has opened up again, more barges are expected to trickle in now through the end of the month.”

DAP was pegged at $685-$700/st FOB St. Paul. Although DAP has also experienced spot outages, sources said DAP supply in the Cities “didn’t get hit quite as hard as MAP.”

Northeast:

DAP remained at $680/st FOB Fairless Hills and as high as $750/st FOB East Liverpool. MAP was pegged at $745/st FOB East Liverpool, with delivered tons reported in the $730-$735/st range in central Pennsylvania.

Eastern Canada:

New MAP offers in Eastern Canada firmed to C$1,049-$1,280/mt FOB, depending on location and supplier, up C$19/mt at the low end of the range. DAP remained at the C$1,038/mt FOB level in Montreal.

China:   

Industry watchers are still waiting for an announcement from the Chinese government confirming rumored changes to the export regime for DAP and other fertilizers. The changes will reportedly allow for more rapid clearance of product for export.

Sources previously expected the announcement to be made on May 1. When no announcement came, sources put it off to the government not wanting to release it during the extended Labor Day holidays. Expectations were that the announcement would come this week, but nothing was reported as of May 11.

As the week closed, sources reported deals at $505-$510/mt FOB. The lower price was reported out of a northern facility, with the upper end coming from the south. The new prices match with the lower price expectations out of India.

India:

Sources said the effort by DAP buyers to secure sub-$540/mt CFR prices appears to have paid off. As the week ended, sources reported deals closed in the $530s/mt CFR. This price level matches with the reported drop in DAP price from China.

Brazil:

Sources said the country remains oversupplied with MAP, and even more tons are on the way.The landed price was pegged $25/mt lower, at $530-$550/mt CFR, with further declines expected. Sources reported multiple unsold vessels, either at the ports or about to arrive.

The Rondonopolis price dropped about $30/mt to $640-$685/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said prices are only expected to weaken, and that no price floor is evident.

MAP imports for January-April stood at 1.6 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,up 69% year-over-year from 954,000 mt. April imports were tagged at 458,000 mt, an 18% increase from 387,000 mt reported in April 2022. Russia sent 198,000 mt, followed by 181,000 mt from Morocco.

TSP

Brazil, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

Players reported a quiet NOLA TSP barge market, noting minimal new business. As a result, pricing was unchanged from last week. Sources agreed that softening full-May DAP and MAP prices would eventually drag the TSP barge market lower, and expected the next round of business to ping at least $100/st down from the last-reported $550-$560/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP remained at $640-$660/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

TSP pricing was unchanged at $640-$645/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt in mid-May.

Brazil:   

TSP remained the one steady market in Brazil, at $380-$400/mt CFR. The Rondonopolis price, however, fell to $485-$510/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

SSP

Brazil, Market Watch, SSP

Brazil:   

Sources reported the landed SSP 19-21 price range firming to $180-$225/mt CFR. The increase from last week’s $200/mt CFR high was attributed to an increase in offers for product with a higher phosphate content.

The Rondonopolis SSP price reported a slight dip to $297-$380/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Buyers of product with lower phosphate content came in with aggressive bids, sources said, widening the range downward.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Phosphoric Acid, U.S. Exports, Western Cornbelt

US Exports:               

July-March wet-process phosphoric exports totaled 251,688 st, up 34.5% from the year-ago 187,159 st. March imports rose 689.5%, to 42,937 st from the prior 5,439 st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

May phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt continued at $14.00/unit rail-DEL.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid was unchanged at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for May tons.

Northern Plains:

Phos acid pricing for May shipments remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Northern Plains, unchanged from April.

India:

India phos acid contracts for the second quarter were reported at $970/mt P2O5 CFR, off $80/mt from $1,050/mt P2O5 CFR in 2Q, and below the week-ago $970-$1,050/mt P2O5 CFR range.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was unchanged at $675-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported in Illinois and the high in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 remained at $655-$675/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The 10-34-0 market was unchanged at $650-$670/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with the low confirmed in North Dakota. Delivered pricing remained in a broad range at $700-$750/st in central and western North Dakota.

Northeast:

10-34-0 remained at $725/st FOB in New York.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Potash Muriate, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA potash barges remained stable at $390-$400/st FOB.

US Imports:

July-March potash imports softened 13.4% year-over-year, to 8.77 million st from 10.13 million st. March imports were 1.16 million st, down 0.1% from the year-ago 1.17 million st.

July-March imports from Canada were reported at 7.66 million st, followed by 770,027 st from Russia. Israel shipped 264,400 st.

US Exports:

Exports moved up 49.2% in March, to 494,380 st from 331,402 st in March 2022. July-March exports softened 4.4% however, to 2.75 million st from the year-ago 2.88 million st.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash slipped slightly to $475-$500/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. “Both P and K remain tight, but we are starting to see some weakness as everyone looks to get out from under any inventory they own,” commented one regional contact.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash was pegged at $450-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low end of the range confirmed at St. Louis.

Northern Plains:

Potash remained at $460-$470/st FOB St. Paul, with delivered tons quoted at the $450-$470/st level in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines were reported at $462-$472/st, depending on grade.

Northeast:

The potash market in the Northeast was quoted at $465/st FOB Fairless Hills and East Liverpool, with delivered tons pegged at $475-$485/st in Pennsylvania.

Eastern Canada:

Potash pricing in Eastern Canada was steady at the C$740/mt level FOB regional warehouses.

Brazil:

The potash market keeps looking for a floor. Prices were put at $360-$400/mt CFR, with a steady flow of material into the ports keeping downward pressure on prices.

Like some other major Brazil market sellers, ICL already has sold most of its potash for Brazil this year, ICL President and CEO Raviv Zoller told analysts in a May 10 company earnings call. Zoller also said that ICL is not selling potash to Brazil below the Indian contract price of $422/mt CFR.

Meanwhile, with the planting season starting, K+S expected potash deliveries into Brazil to pick up by late May or June. Moreover, the company expects the Brazil market to return to “a normal distance” from the Indian contract price in the third and fourth quarters.

“Given the premium for granular product – which we are delivering into Brazil – there is good reason to believe that in the second half of this year prices in Brazil should be at least $30-$40/mt higher than in India,” K+S Chairman Burkhard Lohr told analysts at a May 9 company earnings call.

The Rondonopolis market was also reported down at $490-$505/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said aggressive bidders continue to push for lower prices, often with some success. There were reports that $475/mt is achievable.

January-April potash imports totaled 3.5 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, off8% from the year-ago 3.5 million mt. April imports were 1.1 million mt, down slightly from the 1.3 million mt in the prior April. Canada led suppliers with 509,000 mt, followed by Russia with 337,000 mt.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

The second-quarter contract price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa closed at $103/lt CFR, $27/lt below the first-quarter value of $130/lt, a 20.8% decrease. Reduced producer operating rates from phosphate producers and turnarounds reportedly planned for the summer months were noted suppressing demand.

US Imports:

March sulfur imports softened 24.4% compared to March 2022, registering 224,169 st compared to 296,628 st. Imports fell 16.2% for July-March, to 2.09 million st from the year-ago 2.49 million st.

US Exports:

March exports moved 147.4% higher, to 185,599 st from 75,011 st in March 2022. July-March totals were up 43.8% year-over-year, to 1.65 million st from 1.15 million st in the prior period.

US Gulf:

The US Gulf price remained unchanged from last week’s $80-$90/mt FOB. An expected inventory build-up was said to contribute to a general bearish sentiment.

Brazil:

Sources noted Brazil spot prices remaining at $110-$120/mt CFR. Due to high inventory levels and backups in the receiving ports, there is no new business expected at Brazil anytime soon.

Vancouver:   

Vancouver prices softened to an $80-$85/mt FOB range, off from the week-ago $85-$90/st FOB. A lack of demand from China continued to be blamed for a slight negative sentiment in the market.

Alberta:

Based on both molten sulfur cargoes contracted into the US market and solid tons sold through the Vancouver export market, Alberta sulfur netbacks were estimated in the (-)$12-$33/mt range, unchanged from last week.

West Coast:

West Coast prills were indicated on par with Vancouver at $80-$85/mt FOB, falling from $85-$90/mt FOB last week.

Molten sulfur contracts for loading in the second quarter were reported at $98-$106/lt FOB, down from $125-$135/lt FOB in the prior period.

China:     

China spot sulfur continued to be reported in the $105-$110/mt CFR range. Sources described a lack of interest from buyers, as well as a build-up of inventories by phosphate producers. Chinese MAP and DAP exports increased by 23.5% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023.

ADNOC:

Prilled sulfur produced by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) was posted at $84/mt FOB Ruwais for loading in May, a $31/mt decrease from $115/mt FOB in April. The change represents a nearly 27% decrease in posted prices.

Qatar:

May Muntajat solid sulfur cargoes were posted at $86/mt FOB Ras Laffan, sources said. The May price represented a $24/mt drop from $110/mt FOB in April, a nearly 22% fall.

Sulfuric Acid

Brazil, Market Watch, Sulfuric Acid, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, U.S. Imports

US Gulf:

There were no changes reported in the US Gulf. Price ideas were estimated around $65-$80/mt CFR, depending on specification. A production facility in Houston is back online, sources said, while a Baton Rouge facility was noted halting production. Sources reported a general feeling of balance in the market.

US Imports:

Sulfuric acid imports fell 3.3% for July-March, to 2.56 million st from 2.64 million st in the prior-year period. Imports moved 28.2% lower in March, to 259,602 st from the year-ago 361,369 st.

US Exports:

Sulfuric acid exports for March softened 13.7% year-over-year, to 20,618 st from 23,905 st. July-March shipments were 246.1% higher, however, at 812,370 st compared to 234,726 st in the year-ago period.

Brazil:

Multiple market players reported price ideas in Brazil around $70-$80/mt CFR, but with no new demand in sight due to reports of issues with receiver tanks. The situation will likely remain the same for June and July, with contracted cargoes needing to be diverted to other destinations due to the logistics issues.

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Specialty, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate continued to be quoted in the $360-$400/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low in Illinois and the high at Cincinnati. The Terre Haute, Ind., market was steady at $390/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium thiosulfate market was steady at $340-$370/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Waterloo, Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The latest offers for ammonium thiosulfate firmed to $360/st FOB in central North Dakota, up $15/st from last report.

Eastern Canada:

The ammonium thiosulfate market firmed to C$655-$680/mt FOB in Eastern Canada in mid-May, up from the previous high of C$660/mt FOB.