All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Urea

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA granular urea inched down a bit this week, slipping to $418-$425/st FOB in recent trading versus the week-ago $418-$428/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea remained in the $455-$470/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois and Ohio River terminals. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was steady at $460-$470/st FOB, depending on supplier.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea continued to be quoted in the $455-$475/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the low at St. Louis, Mo., and the upper end reported at Port Neal, Iowa. The St. Paul, Minn., urea market was pegged in the $460-$465/st FOB range in late August.

Southern Plains:

The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market was quoted at $460-$465/st FOB during the week, with the Houston, Texas, market pegged at the $470/st FOB level, down some $20/st from early August.

South Central:

Urea pricing was unchanged at $470-$480/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, with the low reported at Memphis and the high out of Arkansas terminals. The last price reported out of Convent, La., was steady at the $475/st FOB level in late August.

Southeast:

Urea was pegged at a firm $480/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., and other port terminals in the Southeast, edging up to the upper end of the previous range.

China:

The urea market was filled with discussion of dropping prices. However, no new deals were confirmed to reflect the lower prices discussed.

Sources confirmed that offers into the Taiwan Fertilizer tender for 6,000 mt of granular urea this week were at $415-$420/mt FOB. However, no award had been made as Green Markets went to press.

There were widespread reports of offers for granular at $420/mt FOB and prills at $405-$410/mt FOB. These prices are not based on deals done, however, but rather on estimations of an export price based on deals in the domestic market. Sources said traders are taking the ex-plant price and estimating the cost to move the product to a port to get the world price.

The problem, said one trader, is that pressure is still being applied to major producers to not export material. The national government is also restricting the use of the rails to move urea to the export warehouses.

At present, the urea plants are reportedly operating at nearly 67 percent of their rated capacity. This level of output will cover the upcoming domestic season and allow for some tons for export without causing a scarcity of tons. Industry watchers noted that in the past the plants could have easily increased production to provide enough for the local and global markets.

This year, however, the plants are facing an energy shortage. The government is giving the residential markets priority for power, at least until more power stations can come online or step up their output.

Exporters also face a growing issue of vessel availability. Sources said the Chinese government is strictly enforcing its limitations of how many foreign-flag vessels can dock at ports at one time in an effort to control the spread of COVID-19.

The various quarantine rules throughout Asia have also put the smooth movement of ships into question due to scheduling difficulties and higher transportation costs. Sources said the current rate from China to the Indian East Coast is now pegged at $40/mt, compared to the low-$30s/mt just a month ago.

Despite the impact of COVID-19, issues with vessel assignments, and a government looking to stem exports, Chinese producers shipped out 2.7 million mt of urea in the first seven months of the year, according to Trade Data Monitor. This amount represents a 40 percent jump from the 1.9 million exported during the same period in 2020.The main buyers this year were India at 990,000 mt, South Korea at 432,000 mt, and Mexico at 238,000 mt.

June 2021 exports were up 34 percent, to 243,000 mt from 181,000 mt in June 2020. India, South Korea, Chile, and Mexico were responsible for taking 195,000 mt of the June shipments.

India:

The conventional wisdom now says RCF will not call another urea tender until after Sept. 1. Sources said the call could come at any time during the first half of the month, with most bets on the first full week.

Traders said RCF needs to make sure its credit lines are clear and ready for its fourth tender in a row. At the same time, said one trader, it would be useful to the company to make the call after the Aug. 30 shipping deadline of the last tender.

Media reports said India still needs at least 1.5 million mt for this season. The buyer got a bit of breathing space by its surprising 1.2 million mt purchase in the last tender. Sources noted that offtake from the ports to the fields is also going slower than expected, possibly indicating that some inland buyers are not as desperate for product as was originally estimated.

Sources said making the call in the first half of September could take advantage of all the talk of softer prices in China and the Arab Gulf. At the same time, shipments from China would not directly compete with the height of the Chinese domestic season. Any call in the second half of the month, however, could see reduced interest from Chinese suppliers.

No matter the time of the call, the Indian buyer is not expected to enjoy the full benefits of the lower prices being quoted. Because of disruptions in regional shipping schedules due to COVID-19, sources said freight rates are going up. Traders are now quoting $40/mt for 45,000 mt from China to the Indian East Coast, up from the low-$30s/mt just one month ago.

Middle East:

Arab Gulf producers are steadily fulfilling contracts and previously purchased spot deals. Sources said no new spot business was reported this week.

However, the price under discussion has dropped from the $480/mt FOB last seen in completed spot business to $420/mt FOB. Traders are careful to point out that while everyone is talking about $420/mt FOB from the region, no deals at that level have been consummated.

The paper market is also skeptical of the $420/mt FOB price. The September and October paper price is pegged at $442/mt FOB.

While no new business was done in the Arab Gulf to confirm lower pricing expectations, sources reported a few sales out of Egypt that confirmed lower prices.

Abu Qir reportedly sold 30,000 mt of granular at $450/mt FOB and small lots of prills as low as $440/mt FOB. Sources said efforts to push the prilled price into the $430s/mt FOB and the granular price into the $440s/mt FOB have been rebuffed by producers.

Egyptian producers had reportedly made it clear that their solid floor is $450/mt FOB for granular and $440/mt FOB for prills.The latest deals done by Abu Qir fit in place with reports that Algeria also closed a deal to a European buyer at $440/mt FOB.

Black Sea:

Sources said there are no spot tons available out of Yuzhnyy, but older contract tons are being loaded without incident. Traders added that following the increase in natural gas prices, the price of urea out of Ukraine may be too high to be considered for any international buyers.

The only discussions about material in the area were reports of Turkmen granular urea being shipped across the Caspian Sea, through Russia, and into Romania and Bulgaria across the Black Sea. The pricing for this product was pegged at $440/mt CFR.This material, if from Yuzhnyy or other Black Sea ports, would show a new price of $415-$425/mt FOB.

Indonesia:

Rumors are circulating that another selling tender will be called soon. Asian traders said it would be foolish for Kaltim or the others to call an auction until after the Indian tender is closed, however.

Sources said the last done price of $457/mt FOB is too high for the current market. Until the Indian tender is closed and people can digest the price settlement there, however, no one would be willing to step forward and make a bid on the Indonesian product.

Nepal:

A tender for 25,000 mt of granular urea by KSCL closed this week with only two offers. The lowest price of $609/mt CFR bagged and delivered to a river warehouse showed a netback to China of $460/mt FOB. Sources said given all the talk of softer prices this week, this tender might be scrapped and re-issued.

Another tender by the same company will close on Sept. 24. KSCL will be looking for another 25,000 mt of bagged material to be delivered to its riverside warehouses in Nepal.

Brazil:

Paranagua urea prices tightened a bit to $468-$490/mt CFR. Sources said there was little activity, because everyone was waiting to see when the next Indian tender will be called.

Sources also said there is no rush to make any purchases. There is a reported delay of 40-45 days to get a berthing site in the ports. At the same time, there is limited ground transportation to move the product from the ports to the inland NPK producers or distribution centers.

Rondonopolis showed a jump at the upper end of its range to $590-$676/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The move up reportedly came as buyers were looking to top off their needs without committing to large-scale purchases. As with the importers, inland buyers are looking to India for a signal as to where the urea market is going.

They are also keeping a close eye on complaints by truck drivers about pay and availability. There are already complaints of not enough trucks to move the grain to the ports and the fertilizer back inland.

UAN

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA UAN barges were quoted in the $310-$320/st ($9.69-$10.00/unit) FOB range, up from $300-$315/st ($9.38-$9.84/unit) FOB at last report. Sources said the market remains firm in anticipation of possible import duties levied against Russian and Trinidad imports early next year.

CF was reported to have exported a 38,000 mt cargo to Argentina at $327/st or $360/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report limited pricing for UAN-32 in the $348-$356/st ($10.88-$11.13/unit) FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. The Cincinnati market was quoted at the $355/st ($11.09/unit) FOB mark.

Western Cornbelt:

The last prompt UAN-32 offers remained in the $345-$355/st ($10.78-$11.09/unit) FOB range in the region, but sources reported minimal interest or inquiries in late August. The Port Neal price in late August was reported at the $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB level.

Southern Plains:

Limited UAN-32 offers were reportedly in the $340-$345/st ($10.63-$10.78/unit) FOB range out of regional production points and Gulf Coast terminals, with delivered tons into central Texas quoted in the $355-$370/st ($11.09-$11.56/unit) range.

South Central:

Nutrien has moved UAN-32 price ideas at Geismar, La., to $330-$335/st ($10.31-$10.47/unit) FOB. The market FOB Memphis was pegged at $340-$345/st ($10.63-$10.78/unit) FOB in late August.

Southeast:

The UAN-32 market was quoted at $320-$340/st ($10.00-$10.63/unit) FOB in the Southeast, with the lower end of the range confirmed in Georgia and the high out of port terminals in the region.

Correction: UAN for Argentina 32 percent CFR mt reported for the issued dated Aug. 20 should have read $340-$345/mt CFR, not $300-$310/mt CFR.

Ammonium Sulfate

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA ammonium sulfate barges continued to be quoted at $330/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was pegged at a firm $350-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported at Cincinnati and the high reflecting the latest published offers from AdvanSix out of river terminals.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market was pegged at $350-$370/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis.

Southern Plains:

Ammonium sulfate prices at Houston and Freeport, Texas, remained in the $320-$325/st FOB range, with the Catoosa/Inola market pegged at the $340-$350/st FOB level in late August. IOC’s last postings for granular ammonium sulfate included $325/st FOB Houston and $380/st rail-DEL in the Southern Plains.

South Central:

Ammonium sulfate prices in the South Central region ranged from $330-$340/st FOB Memphis at the low to $365-$370/st FOB Arkansas and Kentucky terminals at the high. The regional range reflected a $5/st increase from last report.

Southeast:

Ammonium sulfate prices FOB Hopewell, Va., firmed $15/st on Aug. 18, to $315/st for granular, $295/st for mid-grade, and $275/st for standard. Pricing in Florida was pegged at $305/st FOB standard and $355/st FOB for granular, also up $15/st, with roughly the same levels reported for delivered tons in the state.

China:

Sources said the price for caprolactam-grade amsul in China bounced around all week, but settled back where it started at $205-$210/mt FOB.

Demand from Asian buyers is combining with stepped up demand from Brazil to keep upward pressure on prices. Sources in Brazil said reports of lower production in China is prompting some advance purchases to make sure the blenders have enough material for the next season.

January-July 2021 exports were up 34 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 5.7 million mt from 4.2 million mt during the same period in 2020.

Brazil remains China’s best customer for ammonium sulfate, receiving 1.3 million mt so far this year, up 86 percent from 703,000 mt during the same period last year. The next largest taker was Vietnam at 677,000 mt.

July 2021 imports totaled 1.1 million mt, up from 664,000 mt in July 2020. Brazil dominated the July purchases at 499,000 mt, followed by Vietnam at 194,000 mt.

DAP/MAP

Central Florida:

Truck-loaded DAP was posted at $620/st FOB Central Florida, steady from the prior week. MAP remained at a substantial premium to DAP at $655/st FOB, also unmoved from one week earlier.

U.S. Gulf:

Nearby NOLA DAP barges were reported trading at a $600/st FOB low for the week, a $5/st increase on the week-ago $595/st FOB bottom. Most sources called the top of the range up to $610/st FOB, rising from $605/st FOB in the prior report. Domestically produced material continued to be offered at $615/st FOB, sources said.

MAP barges were also moving up, with reports of $655-$660/st FOB deals changing hands in a reported August-September loading window, lifting from the prior $650/st FOB high. Domestic material was offered at $650/st FOB to set the bottom of the range, while a rumored $670/st FOB transaction went unconfirmed on Aug. 26.

The week’s DAP range landed at $600-$610/st FOB, rising from $595-$605/st FOB one week earlier. MAP values firmed to $650-$660/st FOB, up from $640-$650/st FOB in the prior report.

U.S. Exports:

Nothing new was heard on the Gulf spot phosphate market. Last-done included transactions priced at $660/mt FOB for DAP and $685/mt FOB for MAP.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The DAP market remained at $640-$655/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals in late August. MAP was unchanged at $675-$695/st FOB in the region, depending on location. The Cincinnati market was steady at $645-$650/st FOB for DAP and $680-$690/st FOB for MAP.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing was steady at $635-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the lower end confirmed at St. Louis. The Dubuque, Iowa, DAP market remained at $640-$650/st FOB in late August. MAP was pegged in the $675-$695/st FOB range in the region, depending on location.

Southern Plains:

DAP prices were pegged at $640-$645/st FOB Catoosa/Inola and $655/st FOB Houston. The MAP market remained at $690/st FOB Houston in late August, while pricing at Catoosa/Inola was reported in a wider $675-$695/st FOB range, depending on supplier.

South Central:

DAP was unchanged at $640-$650/st FOB terminals in the South Central region, depending on location, with the low confirmed at Memphis and the high in Kentucky.

Southeast:

Posted phosphate prices at Aurora, N.C., remained at $640/st FOB for MAP and $650/st FOB for DAP in late August.

Saudi Arabia:

Pricing on phosphates loading from Saudi Arabia was heard firming to the $620-$635/mt FOB range, up from $615-$630/mt FOB reported previously.

China:

Phosphate supplies in China remain tight. Sources said output is being hampered by restrictions on available energy as the government gives priority to residential needs over industrial.Prices remain steady in the $620s/mt FOB, which match up with a couple of reported sales to Pakistan at $660-$665/mt CFR.

Sources reported some delays in getting vessels into ports to move the limited tons marked for export. The backup is attributed to a combination of some ports being short-staffed because of COVID-19 and the limitations placed on how many foreign-flag carriers can be in port at one time.

Despite the tightness reported in DAP availability, DAP exports were up nearly 50 percent during January-July 2021, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 4.2 million mt from 2.8 million mt during the same period this year.The top three buyers so far this year were India at 1.2 million mt, Pakistan at 585,000 mt, and Thailand at 496,000 mt.

July exports of DAP were up 27.7 percent, to 984,000 mt from 771,000 mt in July 2020. India took about one-third of the total at 367,000 mt, followed by Bangladesh at 170,000 mt.

Exports of MAP were up 79 percent for the January-July period, to 1.4 million mt from 2.6 million mt last year. Brazil dominated the purchases with 1.2 million mt.

July 2021 MAP exports were up a whopping 239 percent, to 677,000 mt from 200,000 mt in July 2020. This increase matches with reports from regional traders that a number of the producers had shifted to MAP production, which helped account for the tightness of DAP.

Pakistan:

Sources reported the sale of two cargoes into Pakistan at $660-$665/mt CFR. This price fits with quotes out of China in the $620s/mt FOB.

India:

Sources said the country still needs DAP and is willing to pay current rates to acquire it. The limited availability from China makes purchases difficult, however. At the same time, the hesitation felt by buyers is that any deal at this time would involve a loss. Sources said the government needs to raise the maximum retail price from the $570/mt CFR level to meet the current global market prices.

Brazil:

The MAP market in Brazil appears ready for a softening in prices, as all demand for product seems to be covered. Sources in Brazil quoted the Paranagua market at $700-$745/mt CFR. Traders outside the country claim the range is tighter at $725-$745/mt CFR.

The range is widening in Rondonopolis as buyers appear to be looking for a few more tons while facing tighter supplies. The price is now pegged at $831-$870/mt FOB ex-warehouse, which represents a $20/mt rise in the top end of the scale.

TSP

U.S. Gulf:

The TSP barge market continued to hold at $550-$555/st FOB, players said, steady from the previous report.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market was quoted at $580-$595/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high at Caruthersville, Mo.

South Central:

The TSP market was quoted at $580-$595/st FOB in the South Central region, with the high in Arkansas and the low reported at Memphis and reflecting a $10-$15/st increase from early August.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid prices for August remained at $13.15/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and Wisconsin, and $13.30/unit rail-DEL in Ohio.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing for August was unchanged at $13.05/unit rail-DEL in Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa.

Southern Plains:

Phos acid pricing for August was steady at $13.05/unit rail-DEL in Colorado, Kansas, and New Mexico, and $13.15/unit rail-DEL in Texas, and Louisiana.

India:

Contracts governing the sale of phosphoric acid to buyers in India were quoted at $1,160/mt P2O5 CFR for the current quarter, a $162/mt increase from $998/mt P2O5 CFR reported for the prior period.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Eastern Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was steady at $580-$600/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for the last offers, with the low reported at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market remained at $575-$595/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

Southern Plains:

The regional 10-34-0 market was steady at $530-$540/st FOB for the last offers in the Southern Plains, while 11-37-0 pricing in Texas was quoted at $580-$590/st FOB in late August.

Muriate of Potash

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA potash barge trades were pegged in a broad range at $550-$580/st FOB, up from the week-ago $550/st FOB. While some players reported $550-$560/st FOB, others confirmed that barges had moved to as high as $580/st. As a result, some sellers were reported to now be eyeing $600-$610/st FOB.

While some sellers have their sights on higher prices, others expressed fears of demand destruction, saying some inland buyers are not readily accepting the new price increases.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash prices remained firm-to-higher in the Eastern Cornbelt, with reports of new prompt offers as high as $610/st FOB out of some Ohio River terminals. The low remained at the $570/st FOB level for 4Q offers from Nutrien, which confirmed that it is fully allocated through November.

Western Cornbelt:

Sources continued to quote the potash market in a broad range at $570-$600/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, supplier, and time of shipment. The St. Louis market was pegged in the $585-$595/st FOB range for prompt tons in late August, with pricing at St. Paul confirmed at the $590-$600/st FOB level.

Southern Plains:

The Houston potash market had reportedly jumped to $590/st FOB, with pricing at Catoosa/Inola pegged in the $575-$590/st FOB range. Intrepid’s Aug. 9 potash postings FOB Carlsbad, N.M., firmed to $620/st for 60 percent white granular and $627/st for 62 percent white standard. Those levels reflect an $80/st increase from the previous list prices, and a $200/st increase over the company’s summer fill offers.

South Central:

The potash market in the South Central region had reportedly firmed to $590-$600/st FOB Memphis, $600/st FOB Little Rock, Ark., and up to $610/st FOB in Kentucky out of spot Ohio River warehouses.

Southeast:

Potash remained at a firm $600-$610/st FOB port terminals for prompt tons in the Southeast.

China:

Imports of MOP for the first seven months of the year were up 8.6 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 5.1 million mt from 4.7 million mt during the same period last year. The main suppliers so far this year were Russia at 1.4 million mt, Canada at 1.4 million mt, and Belarus at 1.3 million mt.

July imports totaled 547,000, down from 857,000 mt in July 2020. Despite the overall drop, Belarus almost doubled its sales in July, to 181,000 mt from 92,000 mt in July 2020. Russia’s July exports to China dropped 20 percent, with Canada down 80 percent.

Brazil:

MOP prices moved up to $660-$720/mt CFR at Paranagua, with sources citing strong demand and delays in arriving vessels for the increase. Rondonopolis also showed a price increase on dwindling supplies and steady demand, with sources now quoting the market at $810-$880/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Sources said the NPK manufacturers appear to be getting more nervous about the inability of ships to get into the ports and the limited number of trucks to move the product inland. The uncertainty in the market is causing more than a few buyers to take what they can at whatever price is available.

Sulfur

Tampa:

Third-quarter Tampa molten sulfur contracts were priced at $195/lt CFR, up $3/lt from $192/lt CFR in the second quarter.

Operable refining capacity ticked higher for the week ending Aug. 20, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. The EIA described nationwide utilization at a combined 92.4 percent for the period, a 0.2-point increase from 92.2 percent in the prior week. The rate topped the year-ago 82.0 percent while trailing the 92.6 percent five-year average.

Daily crude inputs also lifted higher, averaging 16.072 million barrels/d for the period, a 66,000 barrel/d increase from 16.006 million barrels/d posted previously.

U.S. Gulf:

Phillips 66 was reported to be in talks with a prospective buyer after announcing on Aug. 24 that it would place its Alliance refinery on the selling block, according to Reuters. A number of oil companies have announced divestment plans for refining assets in the coming years amid increasing adoption of electric vehicles in the consumer automobile market. The 255,000 barrel/d Alliance plant is located in Belle Chasse, La.

A debris fire on Aug. 24 at the 369,000 barrel/d ExxonMobil Corp. refinery in Beaumont, Texas, was quickly extinguished with minimal loss of production, Reuters reported. An employee lockout has remained underway at the plant since May 1.

Recent spot sulfur cargoes loading in the U.S. Gulf were noted in the $173-$181/mt FOB range, unmoved from the prior report. Sources continued to report an excess of inventory held at locations throughout the region, speculating that additional offshore prill trades could become necessary in the short term as a result.

Brazil:

A reported sale to a major fertilizer producer in Brazil during the week was priced around the $210-$212/mt CFR mark, players indicated, shy of the market’s prior $216/mt CFR floor. As a result, sources pegged the most recent market in the $210-$216/mt CFR range, falling from $216-$221/mt CFR in the prior report.

Sources quoted third-quarter contracts in the $221-$223/mt CFR range, an increase from $213-$214mt CFR in the second quarter.

Vancouver:

Rising sulfur values at China were expected to lift Vancouver in the next round of business, with sources citing likely near-term levels in the $180s/mt FOB. For now, last-done continued to be noted at $173-$176/mt FOB, steady from one week earlier.

Alberta:

Alberta sulfur continued to net back in the $68-$106/mt FOB range, players indicated.

West Coast:

Price ideas on the West Coast sulfur market were reportedly on par with Vancouver at $173-$176/mt FOB, unchanged from week-ago levels. Third-quarter molten contracts were quoted at $150-$155/lt FOB for tons loading from West Coast locations, up from $140-$155/lt FOB in the second quarter.

China:

Port sulfur inventories at China have reportedly slipped to a 2021 low of 1.5 million mt, half of the approximately 3 million mt reported on hand at the start of the year. As a result, spot import vessel pricing was reported firming to $230-$233/mt CFR in recent trading, an increase from $213-$216/mt CFR noted previously.

The country’s domestic sulfur market was heard trading at a roughly $250/mt CFR-equivalent. With updated import offers reportedly pressing to $240/mt CFR and higher for the week, sources argued that additional increases are likely in the next round of business.

ADNOC:

ADNOC prill pricing was reported at $175/mt FOB Ruwais for the current month, unchanged from the prior period.

Qatar:

Solid sulfur offered from Qatar was noted at $164/mt FOB Ras Laffan for loading in August, falling $15/mt from July’s $179/mt FOB offer.