All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

U.S. Considers New Sanctions Against Belarus, Could Target Potash

The U.S. Biden administration is considering a new round of economic sanctions against Belarus that could target the potash and oil sectors, according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article on July 25.

The possible sanctions were discussed at a meeting in Washington last week between exiled Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and U.S. officials. Tsikhanouskaya has been pressing for tougher U.S. action.

President Joe Biden said on Twitter after speaking with the exiled opposition leader at the White House on July 27 the U.S. “stood with the people of Belarus in their quest for democracy and universal human rights,” Bloomberg reported.

The meeting was seen as a symbolic show of support. Nevertheless, Tsikhanouskaya is the first politician from the former Soviet Republic to receive such high-level treatment by a U.S. leader since Belarus became independent in 1991.

According to the Belarus opposition leader’s senior advisor, Franak Viačorka, cited by the WSJ article, State Department officials indicated their intent to enact new sanctions, specifically on the Belarusian potash and crude-oil sectors, in addition to other important parts of the Belarusian economy.

Potash is Belarus’ second top export after refined oil products, and in 2019 Belarus’ potash and oil exports together accounted for some 25 percent of the country’s exports in U.S. dollar terms, according to U.N. Comtrade data.

But State Department spokesperson Ned Price declined to discuss specific U.S. actions or possible sanctions on crude oil and potash with the WSJ.

The U.S. imported 624,270 short tons of potash from Belarus in fertilizer year 2020 (July 1-June 30), according to TFI data, and in the 2021 fertilizer year to date (July-May), the country imported 713,000 short tons from Belarus.

Belarus is understood to ship mostly 0-0-60 grade potash to the U.S. This grade is one of Belarus’ key potash export products.

The European Union (E.U.), in a sweeping set of further sanctions imposed against the Belarusian regime on June 24 (and implemented the following day), excluded this grade from its list of potash to be sanctioned, that is: “potassium chloride with a potassium content evaluated as K2O by weight, exceeding 40 percent, but not exceeding 60 percent on the dry anhydrous product” (GM June 25, p. 1). This grade of potash accounts for about 80 percent of Belarus supplies to the E.U.

The E.U.’s economic sanctions also include restrictions on Belarusian trade in oil products into the European bloc but excludes crude oil, which, as noted in the WSJ report, “leaves an opportunity” for the U.S. to compound the impact.

New sanctions by the U.S. against the Belarusian regime would be in addition to those imposed by the Biden administration earlier this year, which included punitive measures against Lukashenko, as well as against Belarus’ top prosecutor and Lukashenko’s top spokesperson, among others of the Belarus president’s associates, and also the chairwoman of Belarus’ upper house of parliament.

However, Green Markets Research Director Alexis Maxwell does not see “much of an appetite” from the U.S. to target Belarus with economic sanctions.

This week, the embattled Lukashenko was reported to have unleashed a new round of repression in the country against political opponents, activists, and journalists, shutting down independent media outlets and non-governmental organizations.

Nitrogen Fertilizers Most Affected by Tighter ESG Policies, Says Fitch Ratings

Nitrogen producers will be the most affected in the fertilizer sector by tighter emission regulations, particularly in Europe, and by closer investor focus, Fitch Ratings said on July 26. Long-term costs and decarbonization capex needs will increase, but companies with credible ESG strategies can offset some pressures, said the New York-based ratings agency

The European Commission’s new “Fit for 55” climate plan is the latest regulatory proposal that will affect the sector, if approved by the European Union (E.U.) Parliament, mostly through the revised terms for the Emission Trading System (ETS), and the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) (GM July 23, p. 31).

Fitch Ratings noted that while this proposal will affect European producers and exporters to the E.U., many countries outside the E.U. are considering similar regulations. However, the strictest regulatory requirements should come into force outside of its forecast horizon, the ratings agency said.

Carbon costs for fertilizer producers will rise as a result. Manufacturers’ investment needs to adjust their operations and protect their market positioning will also increase, Fitch Ratings said.

But it believes companies that “act first and have credible ESG strategies” may be able to mitigate these pressures through access to attractive green financing and an ability to capitalize on first-mover advantages in developing new products and technologies.

The ratings agency pointed out that only CF Industries, OCI, and Yara have committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, while most other Fitch-rated companies’ commitments are focused on greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity reduction.

It noted that only PhosAgro and ICL have incorporated Scope 3 emissions in their absolute GHG emissions reduction targets, while some companies, including EuroChem and OCP, are yet to publish their emissions data and reduction plans.

“As investors and policy-makers increasingly focus on climate change, we believe fertilizer producers’ ESG strategies are lagging behind, especially compared to European oil and gas majors,” said Fitch Ratings.

Emission intensity of nitrogen fertilizer producers – OCI at 800 kg GHG per mt of product and CF Industries at not far off 800 kg – are the highest, while that of potash producers (Uralkali, Mosaic) is the lowest, at around the 150 kg GHG per mt of product level, according to the ratings agency (based on its own data and company data).

OCI is targeting to reduce Scope 1+2 GHG emissions intensity by 20 percent by 2030 compared to 2019, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. CF Industries’ target is to reduce total CO2-equivalent emissions by 25 percent per mt of product by 2030 compared to 2015, and carbon neutrality by 2050.

The Mosaic Co. in contrast, for example, is targeting to reduce GHG emissions by 20 percent per mt of product by 2025 (compared to 2015 for North America operations, and 2018 for Mosaic Fertilizantes business).

Fertilizers Europe Says “Fit for 55” Falls Way Short

Fertilizers Europe believes the European Commission’s “Fit for 55” Climate Plan “falls way short” of what is needed by not recognizing the need for competitiveness of European industry, the Brussels-based organization that represents the majority of Europe’s major fertilizer producers said earlier this month.

The E.C. on July 14 put forward its plans for its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a move designed to put European Union (E.U.) companies on an equal footing with competitors outside the bloc with weaker carbon policies (GM July 23, p. 31; March 26, p. 35).

The measure initially will be applied to imports of goods considered to be at high risk of carbon leakage: fertilizers, cement, aluminium, iron and steel, and electricity generation and will be phased in from 2023, with full implementation from 2026.

With growing carbon costs, not borne by major global competitors, co-existence of CBAM and free allowances under ETS is a pre-condition for the successful transformation towards low carbon future of the E.U.-based fertilizer industry, said Fertilizers Europe.

While acknowledging the Commission’s attempt to reinforce Europe’s decarbonisation efforts, the fertilizer manufacturers’ organization believes the current version “increases carbon leakage risk rather than stimulating decarbonization.”

Competitiveness and availability of renewable electricity and technology is needed to give industry the perspective and confidence to invest in low-carbon technologies, it said.

Fertilizers Europe Director General Jacob Hansen said the European fertilizer industry supports the E.C’s Green Deal’s ambition of climate neutrality by 2050 and is committed to play its part.

“Through investments in low-carbon technologies and production of green and blue ammonia, our sector can play a vital role in the decarbonisation of the economy. On top of this, our sector will spearhead efforts to reduce nutrients losses to the environment and support the farmers in reducing their climate impact while maintaining the harvest,” he said.

But Hansen warned that the road to get there is “very challenging” and “tremendous efforts and capital investments will be required to move from fossil to renewable based production.”

Hansen said greater E.U. climate ambition calls for “better carbon leakage measures and not the contrary.” He pointed out that in recent weeks, Europe has seen surging prices of gas and ETS carbon costs – all putting competitive pressure on the European fertilizer manufacturing sector.

He warned the “Fit for 55” package will only add to this pressure.

“Clearly, effective carbon, and investment leakage measures are needed to attract the necessary capital and ensure that the future sustainable investments are made in Europe,” said Hansen.

“A CBAM will be a step towards bringing importers on a level playing field but allocating free allowances to CBAM sectors at the same level as other sectors, at least until 2030, is absolutely crucial for the competitiveness of the fertilizer industry,” he said.

“While CBAM levels imports, it, together with the rest of ‘Fit for 55’ package, does nothing to secure E.U. export competitiveness, quite the contrary. With high value fertilizer products manufactured in Europe, the industry’s exports capabilities can only be maintained if an appropriate ‘levelling’ mechanism is in place to ensure its competitiveness on the global market,” Hansen warned.

As one of the sectors being clearly short on ETS allowances, the revision of the ETS legislation resulting in further reduction of ETS allowances and lowered benchmarks is also a great concern to him.

“The economic reality is that these proposals will squeeze the competitiveness of the industry and make investments in decarbonization so much harder,” said Hansen.

JPMC, Ideal Development Ink Contract for P Unit

Jordan Phosphate Mines Co. has announced an agreement with Sycamore, Ill.-headquartered Ideal Development Company for Manufacturing Industries for an exploitation project of phosphate stock at its Eshidiyeh mine in southern Jordan. The deal was signed on July 26.

The project entails the construction of a phosphate upgrade unit on a build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) basis, and will be completed within 23 months, according to a July 27 company filing to the Amman stock exchange.

The upgrade unit will have capacity to produce 1.5 million mt/y of phosphate with a tricalcium phosphate content higher than 66 percent and up to 74 percent at an average price of $32/mt for 20 years, JPMC said.

Ownership of the new plant will pass to JPMC at the end of the contract duration. The Jordanian company did not comment on the value of the contract.

Petrokemija to Restart AN Production

Croatian fertilizer producer Petrokemija d.d. will restore ammonium nitrate (AN) production at the end of September, according to a SeeNews report, citing a company filing on July 26.

The company said in line with the developed and applied technical solution, the first phase of restoring the production of AN will start at Kutina at the end of September, according to the report.

Petrokemija suspended AN production for safety reasons at the end of February, after a strong earthquake hit Croatia in December last year.

IFFCO Signs MOUs with NFL, RCF for Nano Urea Liquid Technology Transfer

Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd. (IFFCO) has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MOU) with India’s National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) and RCF for the “transfer of technology” of Nano Urea Liquid.

Under the agreements, NFL and RCF will secure the technology to produce Nano Urea Liquid, a new product developed by IFFCO, and launched on May 31 (GM June 4, p. 32).

The Indian cooperative, which is based in India’s Karnataka state, began production of the new product in June, and by July 25, had produced 828,000 500 ml bottles of Nano Urea Liquid, according to a report by Outlook India news magazine, citing India’s Minister of Chemicals and Fertilisers Mansukh Mandaviya.

Under this week’s agreements, NFL and RCF will establish new Nano Urea Liquid production units and it is planned to roll out the technology transfer to other Indian public sector fertilizer companies in order to ramp up production of the new product and ensure a consistent supply resulting in its faster adoption, IFFCO said. The Indian cooperative will not receive any royalty payments for the transfer of the technology.

IFFCO has conducted over 11,000 farmer field trials using Nano Urea liquid in India. It has said the new product could cut conventional urea use by at least 50 percent.

Nano Urea Liquid product was indigenously developed after many years of research by IFFCO’s scientists and engineers through a proprietary technology developed at Nano Biotechnology Research Centre, Kalol.

IFFCO also signed a MOU in June with the Organization of Brazilian Cooperatives (OCB), Brazil’s national confederation of cooperatives, for setting up a Nano Urea fertilizer plant in Brazil with mutual collaboration (GM June 18, p. 31), and a MOU with Argentina’s Cooperative Confederation of Argentina (Cooperar) and Instituto Nacional de Asociativismo y Economia Social (INAES) to study the feasibility of establishing a Nano Urea plant in that country (GM June 25, p. 32).

Acron Group Freezes Fertilizer Prices for Russian Growers Until Oct. 31

Acron Group, Moscow, is freezing the prices Russian growers pay for its fertilizers until the end of the autumn sowing season, effectively Oct. 31.

“Following a slump in 2019 and 2020, the fertilizer market is now seeing prices recover. Acron Group sees Russia as a priority market, which is why we have decided to support the country’s agro-industrial complex during the active phase of autumn sowing by freezing the prices of all our fertilizers at the current level,” said Acron Group Chairman Alexander Popov.

“Today, Russian growers pay 30-40 percent less for fertilizers than the prices commanded in the global market,” he said. “After the costs of logistics, transshipment, and other services are added in, agricultural producers in other countries pay almost double what Russian growers pay in the domestic market.”

Between October 2020 and May 2021, ahead of the 2021 Spring sowing season, Acron said it supplied Russian growers with over 930,000 mt of fertilizers, up 27 percent year-on-year. In full year 2020, the group shipped 1.4 million mt of fertilizers to domestic growers, up 93 percent year-on-year.

Each year, the group signs fertilizer supply agreements with regional agricultural departments in the country. For 2021, it inked agreements with 12 Russian regions.

EuroChem last week also announced it was freezing the selling prices for the main types of fertilizers it sells to domestic growers until the end of the autumn field work. Uralchem and Uralkali said in June they would freeze their product prices for Russian growers.

The two companies supplied more than 1.1 million mt of various fertilizer products and potash to the Russian market in total in the first five months of 2021, almost 10 percent more than the same period a year earlier, according to Uralchem.

IPL Updates on Waggaman, Other Plants

Incitec Pivot Ltd. (IPL), Southbank, Victoria, reports that all its plants are now operating and “performing well.” 

The Waggaman, La., ammonia plant returned to nameplate production at the end of May (GM June 16, p. 31), and since then has been operating reliably at nameplate, IPL Managing Director and CEO Jeanne Johns told analysts and investors in a Market Update on July 29.  Waggaman has nameplate capacity of 800,000 mt/y of ammonia.

Waggaman was offline for a total of 14.5 weeks in IPL’s fiscal first-half, which runs to March 31 (GM May 21, p. 27; May 14, p. 1; April 9, p. 1; Feb. 19, p. 33). The downtime resulted from a combination of planned major turnaround activity and other unplanned outages.

Since then, the plant’s restart process – after it went down again on March 17 as a result of a dry gas seal failure and vibrations in the turbine on the induced draft fan – was halted on May 8, with the restart and subsequent repairs taking three weeks.

In this week’s Market Update, the company reported that Waggaman plant operating procedures have been reviewed and rewritten, with 24/7 monitoring among other initiatives at the site.

As previously reported, IPL plans to replace the ammonia cooler at the plant in FY2022 or FY2023, with an expected outage of up to three weeks for the work to be undertaken. Johns said there is the potential to coordinate this work with the Co-Gen project (steam and power independence) from Cornerstone Chemical Co., which operates the Fortier Manufacturing Complex at the site.

IPL’s final planned turnaround for fiscal 2021 at the Moranbah ammonium nitrate plant in Queensland is also completed, and is running at nameplate. The plant began a scheduled major turnaround in early May.

The company reports a 95 percent ammonia reliability during the second-half of FY2021 at the Cheyenne, Wyo., plant. Cheyenne’s operations were impacted by an unplanned outage in 1H FY2021 caused by a bearing failure on the reciprocal compressor, resulting in a 6 percent year-over-year decline in nitric acid production and a 7 percent fall in ammonia production.

A turnaround at Cheyenne is planned for FY2022, and IPL reported preparations are “tracking well.” It will be one of two major turnarounds planned by the company in FY2022. The other is at Phosphate Hill, Queensland, where IPL reported “solid end of campaign performance” (year-to-date 95 percent), and turnaround preparations tracking well.

Johns said the two turnarounds will complete the company’s current turnaround cycle, with the next major turnaround cycle being in FY2025.

Concerning its other manufacturing operations, IPL reported year-to-date manufacturing performance is “in line with expectations,” with nitric acid reliability “strong across the fleet.”

Regarding low carbon ammonia opportunities, Johns said the company’s ammonia assets are capable of blue/green conversion.

IPL’s first-half FY2021 earnings (to March 31, 2021) were adversely impacted by lower production volumes from the three scheduled turnarounds, as well as unexpected plant outages, in particular, at the Waggaman plant. Net profit after tax (NPAT) was down 44 percent to A$36.4 million on revenue of A$1.72 billion compared to the prior year A$64.6 million and A$1.85 billion, respectively. EBIT was down 31 percent, to A$110.2 million from A$159.2 million.

As announced on July 16, the company is implementing changes in its manufacturing model from a global to a regional management structure (GM July 16, p. 29). IPL said the regional model will improve and drive delivery of the company’s manufacturing excellence strategy and ensure “appropriate oversight and support” is provided to its manufacturing operations, particularly while international travel restrictions remain in place.

Triangle Chemical, Brumleve Join CommoditAg

Online farm inputs retailer CommoditAg, Effingham, Ill., added two new companies to its expanding network of product and service providers. Triangle Chemical Co., a full-service wholesale/retail distributor of fertilizer, agricultural chemicals, and seed in Macon, Ga., joined CommoditAg in June, along with tarp systems provider Brumleve®, Teutopolis, Ill.

“Triangle C.C. is committed to providing the agricultural services growers need to be successful, and we are pleased to be partnering with them to expand our reach into the South,” said John Demerly, CommoditAg CEO. “Both our companies are continually expanding and adapting to meet the needs of farmers to ensure their success, which makes this an ideal partnership.”

CommoditAg said the addition of Triangle C.C. gives its customers access to products and fulfillment centers in the Southeast. Founded in 1947, Triangle offers and products and services to the row crop, vegetable, tree crop, turf, and ornamental industries from 28 locations in Georgia, Mississippi, Florida, and North Carolina. The company is a member of Atlanta-based Tenkoz Inc., the largest distribution entity for crop protection products in the U.S.

“E-commerce continues to expand and make a greater impact in the agriculture industry,” said Tripp Maddux, Director of Business Development at Triangle C.C. “We selected CommoditAg as our partner for this venture because it was the best fit for our company. We believe CommoditAg will work well alongside our traditional sales avenues, while helping us reach new producers and allowing us to expand our offerings in our current marketplace and beyond.”

CommoditAg said Brumleve has been a leader in tarp system installation, parts, and service for more than 30 years. “Partnering with CommoditAg is a great opportunity for us at Brumleve to expand our market reach,” said Michael Brumleve, Operations Manager at Brumleve. “Their e-commerce platform is top-notch, and our product line fits in perfectly with their customer base.”

CommoditAg offers a broad range of crop protection, lubricants, plant nutrition, and animal nutrition products from more than 50 retail fulfillment centers, with delivery or same-day pick-up options available to buyers. Triangle C.C. and Brumleve are the latest retail partners to join CommoditAg since the platform’s launch in late 2017 by founding partners The Equity in Illinois and Sunrise Cooperative in Ohio (GM Jan. 5, 2018).

AdvanSix Reports Record Performance

AdvanSix, Parsippany, N.J., reported record earnings and sales in the second quarter ending June 30, which it said reflected strong execution and improving end market demand and tight industry supply conditions. Net income was up 286 percent, earnings per share 273 percent, sales 88 percent, and EBITDA 147 percent.

Second-quarter net income was $44.1 million ($1.53 per diluted share) on sales of $437.7 million, up from the year-ago $11.4 million ($0.41 per share) and $233 million, respectively. EBITDA was $76 million, up from $30.7 million.

“Our entire organization performed exceptionally well in the current set of industry conditions to support our customers throughout the quarter while delivering record sales, earnings and margin performance,” said Erin Kane, AdvanSix President and CEO.

“Our record performance is attributable to strong volume and pricing improvement, including continued growth in differentiated products amid favorable end market conditions and tight industry supply,” he said.

“Demand has improved across a number of the diverse end markets we serve, including building and construction, auto, electronics, packaging, paints and coatings, and solvents, as well as the strongest set of agricultural industry fundamentals seen in the last decade. Across the board, it has been a terrific first-half of 2021, with robust earnings and cash flow performance reflecting strong execution and the strength of our business model and portfolio,” Kane continued.

With all major products performing well, ammonium sulfate sales represented only 23 percent of company sales in the second-quarter, down from the year-ago 34 percent. Going forward, the company expects strong agricultural industry fundamentals to continue. It said the typical North America ammonium sulfate seasonality is expected to drive a higher export mix in the third quarter.

“We continue to execute against a focused strategy and the outlook for our business remains favorable,” added Kane. “The continuation of strong underlying demand trends across our core markets, benefits from our high-return capital projects and differentiated product portfolio, and our operational agility are all supporting expected record earnings and cash flow in 2021.

“We are approaching the five-year anniversary of our spin-off, and our organization’s collective efforts throughout this time have positioned the company for long-term success. We are excited to share more about our ability to deliver strong and sustainable shareholder returns at our upcoming Investor Day scheduled for September 28,” he said.

Six-month net income was $72.3 million ($2.51 per share) on sales of $814.1 million, up from $20 million ($0.71 per share) and $535.7 million, respectively. EBITDA was $131 million, up from $59.4 million.