All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Urea

Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Nigeria, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA granular urea barge prices continued to climb, with most sources quoting prices in the $405-$450/st FOB range, up from the week-ago $386-$435/st FOB. The higher end of the range represented loaded barges that were ready to move. There was a report late in the week of a $455/st deal for a barge that was already moving upriver.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices surged to $465-$485/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the previous week’s $440-$475/st FOB range. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged firmly in the $465-$475/st FOB range at midweek amid reports of very tight supply.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices were steadily firming in the region, driven by tight supply. While the low end of the range was reported earlier in the week at $430-$435/st FOB Port Neal, Iowa, sources said the facility stopped loading and pulled offers on June 10 due to low inventory.

As the week progressed, urea prices surged to $467/st FOB Camanche, Iowa, $475/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., $480/st FOB St. Louis, Mo., $475-$485/st FOB Memphis, Tenn., and up to $495/st FOB Catoosa/Inola, Okla. Delivered tons in the Northern Plains strengthened to $505-$515/st, up from $475-$480/st earlier in the week.

California:

Urea prices were up at Stockton, Calif., to $545/st FOB from the previous $520/st level. There were also reports of bagged urea available at the $580/st level FOB Stockton in early June. Sources reported no current rail-DEL quotes, with the last business booked at the $495/st level in mid-May. “No one wants to quote rail now,” said one contact.

Pacific Northwest:

Effective June 9, urea prices in the Pacific Northwest firmed to $525/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., and $530/st FOB Aurora, Ore., up $20/st from the last official postings and a full $50/st higher than reference levels in mid-May. The only delivered offer in the region was reported at the $520/st level in Montana for limited tons.

Western Canada:

Limited June volumes of urea fill were reportedly being offered in Western Canada at C$575/mt FOB Medicine Hat, Alta., earlier in the month, with delivered offers in Saskatchewan reported at C$610/mt for June and C$615/mt for July. Sources said the Medicine Hat program was already over, however, with reports of post-fill pricing now in the C$645-$655/mt FOB or DEL range.

India:

Sources said the paperwork is just about all ready to call another tender. The only question seemingly not yet settled is if the shipping deadline will be July 25 or July 31. If it is the former, sources said the tender could be called as early as June 11. Otherwise, the call could come as early as June 14, or by the end of next week.

Sources said one issue facing the Department of Fertilizer (DOF) before allowing MMTC to call the next tender is ensuring that tons booked under the most recent two tenders are not affected by a new one.

The MMTC tender that closed on May 4 has a shipping deadline of June 21. The RCF tender of May 27 has a deadline of June 30. Sources said the DOF might want to wait until all the tons for these two tenders have vessels nominated and shipping dates set.

In the past, when new tenders overlapped with older deals, depending on the price trend in the tenders, either the buyer or producers might back out of the earlier arrangement to take advantage of the new pricing. In the current situation, the Indian government wants to ensure it gets the tons secured in the previous two tenders before calling a new one, because people are already talking about the price going up at least $30/mt.

When the week opened, prices in China and the Arab Gulf would have justified a price into India of about $430/mt CFR. As the week progressed, however, the potential price moved to $465-$480/mt CFR.

Industry sources said there is no doubt India needs the urea. However, at the current rate, few are expecting MMTC will be authorized to buy anywhere close to the 1.2 million mt needed in this round, even if the tonnage was actually available.

The awarded tons from the previous two tenders, plus the 2.08 million mt produced by domestic companies, is not enough to cover the 2.7 million mt the government estimates is needed for June demand. The relatively low purchases in the previous two tenders are putting India further behind in its urea supplies, causing the need for more tenders to be called in quick succession.

China:

The price of prilled and granular urea moved up throughout the week. When the week opened, sources put the prilled market in the mid-$430s/mt FOB and granular at about $440/mt FOB. Even these prices reflected a significant jump from the previous week, when prices were all sub-$400/mt FOB.

By the end of the week, however, sources were reporting deals at $450/mt FOB for granular and $440-$445/mt FOB for prills. Sources said even these prices are low compared to what the price could be based on the domestic market. Reportedly, the domestic price could support an export price closer to $465/mt FOB for either version.

Sources said low inventories in some sectors of the country, along with stepped up demand in some other areas, are providing a solid floor on prices. The strong domestic demand is also keeping urea away from the export warehouses, leaving fewer tons available for offshore sales.

One observer noted that the awards of Chinese product in the last Indian tender were covered mostly by tons already in portside warehouses. Very few tons have been sent to refill those warehouses because of strong local demand and pressure from the national government to ensure a plentiful supply of product for the domestic market.

Sources reported rumors that the Chinese central government may take steps to further protect a plentiful supply of urea for farmers. Reportedly, an edict is being prepared to limit the amount of urea available for export. The document could be released within the next couple of weeks.

Middle East:

The paper market jumped $450/mt in just one week, to $465/mt FOB for July product. At the same time, actual offers and bids also took a leap up.Sources reported the latest offers were at $450-$455/mt FOB with bids at $440-$445/mt FOB. Reportedly, Fertiglobe settled on a cargo for $445/mt FOB, but some sources questioned if the deal was consummated.

Even without the confirmation of the Fertiglobe deal, traders said they were comfortable calling the market in the low-$440s/mt FOB, with room to spare for more growth. They all pointed to continued strong demand for urea, especially from India, and the limited tonnage available from the Arab Gulf. Shutdowns in Saudi Arabia have tightened supplies that make higher prices inevitable, said one source.

Some producers are reportedly opening talks with traders at $520/mt FOB. However, while that price might be attractive to the producers, sources said there are no buyers for urea at that level.

Egyptian producers seem to be taking a break from offering tons for export until they figure out what the government decision to support the domestic market means for them.

Last week, the government said exports needed to be limited to ensure at least 323,000 mt each month through August for the domestic market. The details of how each producer will be impacted by this statement has left the producers hesitant to offer anything for export.

Even with that hesitancy, sources reported that MOPCO and Fertiglobe closed deals at $412/mt FOB for August shipments. Shortly after those deals hit the rumor mill, sources said Abu Qir closed a deal of 30,000 mt for late August shipment at $435/mt FOB.

Sources said the higher prices out of Egypt seem to be backed by positive grain prices in Europe. Also supporting the move upward, sources reported a late-week sale from Algeria to Europe at $465/mt FOB.

Nigeria:

The Dangote urea/ammonia plant is reportedly now running in its first phase to provide urea to the domestic market for July and August deliveries.

Brazil:

The rising prices from producers around the world are being reflected in the landed Brazilian prices. Sources said Paranagua urea is now pegged at $460-$475/mt CFR.

The increase in pricing comes even as supplies seem to be steady and plentiful. The issue, said traders, is the uncertainty in the global urea market. As long as prices keep going up in China and the Arab Gulf, suppliers are not going to back off on increasing their prices.

The inland price at Rondonopolis is also up. Sources reported $520-$598/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with most of the business at the upper end of the range.The market has become so unstable lately, sources said suppliers have dropped their weekly price lists and now seem to prefer to deal with prices on a day-by-day basis.

Even as prices fluctuate, sources said there is enough strength in the grain market during this normally quiet period that barter rates have not really moved off levels of the past couple of weeks.

January-May imports of urea this year were up almost 22 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 2.9 million mt from 2.4 million mt during the same period last year.

The main suppliers of urea so far this year have been Qatar at 783,000 mt, Russia at 682,000 mt, and Oman at 419,000 mt. While Qatar and Russia have been traditional suppliers to Brazil, this year marks a major entrance for Oman. During the same five-month period last year, Brazil did not receive any tons from Oman. Sources speculated the 2021 material is from the OMIFCO plant, which has only recently begun shipping its product to the global market.

May imports this year were also up, to 488,000 mt from 339,000 mt in May 2020.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

While most continued to put the NOLA barge market as a flat $300/st ($9.38/unit) FOB, others said late in the week that higher prices inland were starting to suggest a higher netback to NOLA of $305-$310/st ($9.53-$9.69/unit) FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market firmed to $340-$365/st ($10.63-$11.41/unit) FOB in the region, with the lower end of the range confirmed at LaSalle, Ill. The market FOB Cincinnati and Mount Vernon, Ind., was quoted in the $350-$355/st ($10.94-$11.09/unit) rang, but sources reported very little prompt material available as brisk sidedress demand continues.

The UAN-28 market was quoted at $310/st ($11.07/unit) FOB Cincinnati, up 3-$12/st from last report.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 market rose to $345-$355/st ($10.78-$11.09/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up $10/st at the low end of the range, with the St. Louis market pegged firmly at the $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB level at midweek. The Coffeyville, Kan., market was also quoted at $350/st ($10.94/unit) FOB, up $10-$15 from last week.

California:

The UAN-32 market was pegged at $360-$365/st ($11.25-$11.41/unit) FOB Stockton and other port terminals for June/July tons, down $5-$20/st from last report. Sources reported limited rail-DEL offers at the $370-$380/st ($11.56-$11.88/unit) level.

Pacific Northwest:

The UAN-32 market was steady at $385-$390/st ($12.03-$12.19/unit) FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with rail-DEL offers reported in the $400-$415/st ($12.50-$12.97/unit) range.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Ammonium sulfate barge prices continued to move up, with product in very tight supply. The market was called $285-$300/st FOB, up from last week’s $280-$290/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

AdvanSix on June 7 raised its granular ammonium sulfate prices by $20/st in the Midwest and Plains region, to $305/st FOB river terminals for tons available after July 1, with inland warehouses priced at a traditional spread to the river. Sources reported prompt tons at $320-$335/st FOB on the Illinois River and $350/st FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate prices strengthened to $305-$350/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reflecting new river terminal pricing from AdvanSix on June 7, and the high reported at Sioux City, Iowa.

Sources pegged the St. Louis market firmly at the $320/st FOB level at midweek, with reports of Upper Mississippi River terminals at the $335/st FOB mark.

California:

Ammonium sulfate prices ranged from $305-$335/st FOB in California, depending on grade and location, with IRM referenced at the $318/st level FOB Chico and Woodland for WesternStandard. Rail-DEL tons were quoted at $320-$345/st in the state, with the low for fine grade and the high for granular.

Pacific Northwest:

Reference prices for ammonium sulfate in the Pacific Northwest were up $25-$30/st from last report, to $330/st FOB or DEL for standard and $363/st FOB or DEL for granular.

Western Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices were quoted in the C$510-$515/mt DEL range in Western Canada, with continued reports of tight inventories.

China:

Domestic demand for ammonium sulfate is pushing the price higher for local buyers. Sources said the export-equivalent price should be about $180/mt FOB, but exporters are not getting that price.

Sources said sales to Southeast Asian buyers are showing netbacks still in the $160s/mt FOB. The price has moved up in the past week to cover a range of $160-$170/mt FOB. Sellers are still pushing to gain higher prices from their international buyers, but there is a lot of push-back against these new levels.

Buyers are primarily looking to ammonium sulfate as a substitute to the ever-more-expensive urea in blending operations.

Brazil:

The price of granular ammonium sulfate at Paranagua has moved up to $250-$255/mt CFR. Some of the increase is attributed to increased freight rates from China, still Brazil’s main supplier, but also to increased demand by blenders looking for substitutes for urea.

The push by blenders inland became starkly clear when prices in Rondonopolis jumped to $355-$430/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The upper end of the range represents an almost $80/mt increase from last report.

Imports for the January-May period this year were reported at 1.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 31 percent from the 1.05 million mt imported during the same period last year. May 2021 imports were down about 10 percent, to 115,000 mt from 128,000 mt in May 2020.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Saudi Arabia, Southeast, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

DAP trucks loading from Central Florida firmed to $605/st FOB, up from $595/st FOB one week earlier. MAP postings lifted to $645/st FOB, rising from the week-ago $630/st FOB.

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA barge phosphate prices continued to ratchet higher, sources reported.

DAP barges were quoted lifting above the $600/st FOB mark to $605/st FOB on sales of domestically produced material, increasing from the week-ago $590/st FOB high. Most players pegged the bottom of the range at $595/st, a $15/st lift compared to $580/st FOB reported previously, with the bulk of trading landing in the $597-$600/st FOB range. Early-week trading rumored as low as $590/st FOB went unconfirmed on June 10.

Barges of MAP also pressed higher, driven in part by ongoing supply uncertainty in both the import and domestic markets. Sources noted domestic postings lifting to $640/st FOB for the period, up from the prior $630/st FOB low, while limited tons were quoted changing hands up to $660/st FOB. Rumors of $630/st FOB offers went unconfirmed for the week.

The NOLA DAP market was reported at $595-$605/st FOB, firming from last week’s $580-$590/st FOB. MAP barges lifted to $640-$660/st FOB, up from $630-$645/st FOB at last report.

U.S. Exports:

Sources reported a 7,000 mt DAP transaction into a single-market destination in Central America. Set for loading in late June or early July, the cargo was priced at $605/mt FOB.

Based on reported transactions, the Gulf phosphate export markets firmed to $605/mt FOB, up from $590-$595/mt FOB published previously. Offers for the next round of business were heard moving up to $650/mt FOB based on rapid firming in a number of Latin American markets.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was reported at $635-$650/st FOB in the region, with the Cincinnati market quoted at $635-$645/st FOB. MAP pricing edged up to $660-$690/st FOB, up $10/st at the high end of the range, with the Cincinnati market pegged at $665-$685/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing firmed to $630-$640/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up another $10/st from last report, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and Camanche. MAP was quoted at $670-$685/st FOB in the region, up $10-$20/st, depending on location and time of the week. The St. Louis MAP market was pegged firmly at the $685/st FOB level as the week progressed.

The St. Paul market was reported at $640-$645/st FOB for DAP and $685/st FOB or higher for MAP, with the Catoosa/Inola market pegged at $635-$640/st FOB for DAP and $675-$685/st FOB for MAP.

Southeast:

Nutrien’s prices at Aurora, N.C., firmed to $620/st FOB for both DAP and MAP, up $15/st from the previous week.

California:

MAP prices in California firmed on June 10 to $750/st rail-DEL or FOB French Camp, Helm, Richvale, Dixon, and El Centro, up $20/st from pricing at the beginning of the week.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP prices started the week at $717/st FOB Aurora, $720/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, and $710/st DEL in Idaho, Utah, and Montana. Posted prices firmed another $20/st on June 10, however, to $737/st FOB Aurora, $740/st DEL in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, and $730/st DEL in Idaho, Utah, and Montana.

Western Canada:

MAP pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$930-$955/mt FOB and C$940-$990/mt DEL, depending on location, up from the last reported range of C$950-$960/mt DEL.

Saudi Arabia:

Sources noted Saudi Arabia phosphate prices at $550-$565/mt FOB, firming from $545-$565/mt FOB in the prior report.

India:

The Mosaic Co. President and CEO Joc O’Rourke on June 7 said India’s DAP price at a CFR level is gradually increasing following the resolution of the phosphate subsidy, and put the current CFR DAP price at $575/mt. O’Rourke was presenting at the Exane BNP Paribas 23rd European CEO Virtual Conference.

China:

Sources reported that DAP producers are turning down bids at $590/mt FOB. However, the netback from the Bangladesh tender last week shows a range of $550-$560/mt FOB. Sources said producers are gearing up to fill the orders in that tender, leaving other buyers to deal with higher pricing ideas.

Traders said the producers will most likely cover the awards into Bangladesh but will occasionally offer a cargo or two on the spot market in an effort to move up the price. One trader noted that the producers could rightfully argue they are fully covered by contracts and that any spot tons would have to be sold at a premium.

India:

New pricing indications from India for DAP are at $580/mt CFR and up. Sources said there have been no new sales into the country, but buyers seem nervous because of the steady rise in prices out of China and the Middle East.

Brazil:

Prices for MAP rapidly hit $700/mt CFR and then kept going. Sources reported sales by the end of the week at $710-$730/mt CFR, with a strong emphasis on the upper end of the range.Reportedly sellers are now saying they will accept nothing less than $750/mt CFR. Some traders outside Brazil said they would not be surprised to see that level by next week.

The inland price at Rondonopolis also showed stronger prices, with sources reporting new levels at $810-$920/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The higher price is being put off to limited quantities as well as the strong global phosphate market.

Phosphoric Acid

California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid was pegged at $13.00/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and $13.15/unit rail-DEL in Ohio for June tons.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing for June was quoted at $12.90/unit rail-DEL in Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa.

California:

The phos acid market remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in California for June shipments, with MGA referenced at the $14.20/unit level FOB Lathrop and El Centro. Sources said a reset is expected in July.

Pacific Northwest:

June phosphoric acid prices were unchanged at $13.50/unit FOB Pocatello, Idaho, with rail-DEL offers at $14.00/unit in the Pacific Northwest.

India:

Second-quarter phosphoric acid contracts were valued at $998/mt P2O5 CFR, rising $203/mt from the first quarter.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Uncategorized

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was unchanged at $580-$600/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for the last reported offers, with the low reported at Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was unchanged at $575-$595/st FOB for the last reported business in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

California:

The10-34-0 market was steady at $611-$617/st FOB in California, with the 11-37-0 market pegged at $680-$685/st FOB for June tons.

Pacific Northwest:

The 10-34-0 market in the Pacific Northwest remained at $605-$610/st FOB, with 11-37-0 pricing reported in the $665-$670/st FOB range in the region.

Western Canada:

10-34-0 remained at a firm C$850/mt DEL in Western Canada in early June.