All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Potash, Russia, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

The NOLA potash barge price shot up after Mosaic announced a 1 million mt cut in potash production through March 2022. Almost immediately, the number became $400/st FOB and it stuck. The week-ago range was $365-$380/st FOB.

Late in the week, there were reports of prices as high as $412/st FOB being quoted, but others said those were for September-October.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash prices were up sharply on reports that Mosaic would be cutting near-term potash production by 1 million mt. The warehouse market was quoted in the $425-$450/st FOB range in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the previous week’s $395-$420/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati earlier in the week and the high at East Dubuque, Ill. One source reported rumors of a possible $50/st increase coming in the near term.

Western Cornbelt:

Sources quoted potash pricing at $425-$460/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up dramatically from the prior week’s $395-$415/st FOB range. Most Iowa locations were firmly in the $450-$460/st FOB range as the week progressed, with the St. Louis market quoted at the $445/st FOB level on June 10.

California:

Potash pricing in California had reportedly strengthened $30/st, to $535/st FOB for 60 percent and $545/st FOB for 62 percent MOP.

Pacific Northwest:

Potash pricing was quoted at $460-$470/st FOB and $470-$480/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest. Potash postings FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, remained at $445/st FOB for 60 percent white standard and $450/st FOB for 60 percent white granular.

Western Canada:

The Western Canada potash price strengthened to C$560/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines for truck tons, up some C$30/mt from last report and C$55/mt higher than the limited fill program offers that circulated in early May.

China:

Potash import inventory is down to around 2.5 million mt, according to Jenny Wang, Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing, for The Mosaic Co. She said this is below the three-year average and indicated that potash supply in China is “very tight.”

Wang, who was participating in Mosaic’s presentation at the Exane BNP Paribas 23rd European CEO Virtual Conference on June 7, said China’s potash buyers will want to get supply contract negotiations started now.In the tight global market situation, however, she thinks it will be difficult for China to get any supplier to commit to a price they like.

“So from our perspective, it does not matter when the next negotiations are going to happen,” she said. “But it really matters for the buyer side.”

Russia:

Russia’s potash exports reached 3.85 million mt in the first four months of 2021, according to Trade Data Monitor, up 89 percent from 2.04 million mt for the same period last year. Big gains were seen particularly in export volumes to China, Brazil, Indonesia, and the U.S.

Russian potash exports Jan.-April (‘000 mt)

  Jan-Apr 2021 Jan-April 2020 % change
World 3,848 2,039 +89
Of which:      
China 886 404 +119
Brazil 821 503 +63
Indonesia 432 105 +311
U.S. 428 124 +246
Estonia 283 138 +105
India 156 95 +64
Finland 142 100 +42
Malaysia 125 42 +195
Nigeria 106 75 +41
Poland 96 53 +80
Belgium 49 48 +3
Bangladesh 0 79 (100)

Brazil:

As expected, potash prices moved up in Brazil. Sources reported Paranagua deals at $420-$450/mt CFR. The movement has suppliers pushing to go past the $450/mt CFR mark.

The movement in Brazil is reflective of an overall concern of higher prices in potash. Sources in Asia said part of the concern comes from potential sanctions by the U.S. against companies from Belarus because of that government’s action of diverting a civilian aircraft to arrest a journalist. If sanctions are imposed on BPC, sources said MOP prices could have an even greater increase.

Inland prices also showed an increase of about $60/mt in just a week, to $460-$580/mt FOB ex-warehouse.

Trade Data Monitor reported that January-May 2021 imports of 4.03 million mt, an increase of about 13 percent from the 3.6 million mt imported during the same period last year.The main suppliers during the first five months were Russia at 1.2 million mt, Canada at 1.1 million mt, and Belarus at 910,000 mt.Imports for May were down by about a third, to 822,000 mt from 1.2 million mt in May 2020.

Sulfur

Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

Second-quarter Tampa molten sulfur agreements were valued at $192/lt CFR, a $96/lt increase from the first-quarter $96/lt level.

U.S. refinery capacity jumped to 91.3 percent for the week ending June 4, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted, a 2.6-point increase from the prior-week 88.7 percent. The current-week rate remained ahead of both the year-ago 73.1 percent and the 89.4 percent five-year average, while climbing above the 90 percent mark for the first time since Jan. 17, 2020.

Crude inputs were noted at an average 15.925 million barrels/d for the week, up 328,000 barrels/d from 15.597 million barrels/d at last check.

U.S. Gulf:

Production levels from a 250,000 barrel/d crude section returned to normal at Royal Dutch Shell’s Norco refinery on June 4, Genscape reported. Activity at the unit had been reduced since May 13. A 44,000 barrel/d hydrocracker was taken offline at the site in the early morning of June 9.

Decreased activity was observed from the 95,000 barrel/d DCU-2 coking unit at the Motiva plant in Port Arthur, Texas, on the evening of June 3. The downturn was accompanied by a shutdown of one of the unit’s three furnace stacks. The unit was noted returning to normal operation on June 6.

Valero halted operations on a 25,000 barrel/d fluidic catalytic cracking unit (FCC) and 30,000 barrel/d hydrocracker at its 89,000 barrel/d Three Rivers, Texas, facility on the morning of June 7. Reuters reported a fire at the plant on June 6. A 23,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer was added to the shutdown list on June 7, marking the complete shutdown of all Genscape-monitored units.

Chevron suffered an unplanned FCC stoppage at Pasadena, Texas, on June 1. The 56,000 barrel/d unit remained offline on June 7. The company also took a 23,000 barrel/d catalytic reforming unit offline on June 5.

Decreased activity was observed from a 110,000 barrel/d heavy gas oil hydrotreater at the Marathon refinery in Garyville, La., Genscape indicated on June 8. The unit was reported fully shut down later the same day.

An activity increase was observed from the 30,000 barrel/d Platformer 5 catalytic reformer at Citgo’s Corpus Christi, Texas, plant on June 8, although operations remained shy of normal levels. The reformer and an accompanying 30,000 barrel/d hydrotreater have been offline since May 14.

Gulf sulfur price ideas were noted stretching to a $180-$190/mt FOB range from the week-ago $185-$190/mt FOB, due to firming international freight costs.

Brazil:

Brazil sulfur pricing was quoted at $218-$222/mt CFR, rising from $215-$220/mt CFR one week earlier. Second-quarter contract levels stood at $213-$214/mt CFR.

Vancouver:

Sources noted no change in Vancouver export levels, calling the market in a $178-$180/mt FOB range.

Alberta:

Suncor on June 4 completed a restart of the 82,000 barrel/d CDU at its Edmonton refinery, Genscape noted. The unit had seen rising production levels since June 1, after powering down April 20 as part of a multi-system turnaround.

A sulfur recovery unit was noted restarting at the Suncor plant on May 26, while a 38,000 barrel/d hydrotreater began ramping up on June 6. A 12,000 barrel/d catalytic reformer, 94,000 barrel/d naphtha hydrotreater, and 38,000 barrel/d hydrotreater were noted successfully restarting on June 9. A 17,000 barrel/d coking unit continued to ramp up production on June 9.

Alberta netbacks remained in a $65-$110/mt FOB range for the current reporting period, sources said, steady from the prior report.

West Coast:

Activity decreases were reported on June 8 from an 82,000 barrel/d vacuum distillation unit (VDU) at the Phillips 66 plant in Carson, Calif. Genscape observed similar decreases from the same unit on May 25-29. Early restart efforts on a 55,000 barrel/d gas oil hydrotreater shut since March 20 were reported on June 8.

West Coast prills continued to be heard at $178-$180/mt FOB, sources indicated, unmoved from the prior report. Molten contracts were reported at $140-$155/lt FOB for loading in the second quarter.

China:

Last-done at China continued to fall in a $210-$215/mt CFR range, steady from week-ago levels.

ADNOC:

Sources put June ADNOC offers at $185/mt FOB Ruwais, a $2/mt rise from $183/mt FOB in May.

Qatar:

Muntajat prills were heard at $183/mt FOB Ras Laffan for June, a rollover from the prior-month offer.

Sulfuric Acid

Brazil, China, Gulf Coast, Market Watch, Midwest, Sulfuric Acid, U.S. Gulf, West Coast

U.S. Gulf:

Last-done Gulf import sulfuric acid continued to be voiced in a $150-$155/mt CFR range, steady from the prior report. A $190/mt CFR transaction rumored in talks one week earlier remained unconfirmed on June 10, although sources pointed to a recent climb into the $190s/mt CFR at Brazil as indicative of where the U.S. market is likely headed.

Gulf Coast:

Annual Gulf Coast sulfuric acid contracts were reported at $85-$110/st DEL.

Century Aluminum (Chicago, Ill.), which bills itself as the largest U.S. primary aluminum producer, on June 3 announced expanded operations at the company’s Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, the Associated Press reported. A $60 million capital investment will allow up 100 new hires, potentially allowing for a restart of one of the facility’s stopped potlines.

The Mt. Holly facility was nearly mothballed in December 2020 after Century was repeatedly unable to strike a deal with local utility provider Santee Cooper for lower electricity rates. The companies announced a new three-year contract in March, allowing Mt. Holly to remain in operation.

Midwest:

Midwest contract levels continued to be reported at $85-$110/st DEL for 2021 agreements, sources said, unmoved from the prior report.

West Coast:

West Coast contracts for 2021 persisted in a $100-$130/st DEL range, steady from one week earlier.

Brazil:

Sources noted Brazil import pricing moving into the $190s/mt CFR for the week, an increase from $180-$185/mt CFR at last check.

China:

Primary lead smelters located in Henan, Hunan, and Yunnan provinces operated at 50.9 percent for the week ending June 4, Shanghai Metals Market reported, down 0.1 percentage points from 60 percent reported for the prior week.

The drop was attributed to the start of planned maintenance at the Yunnan Hongqian facility. Slight production increases were noted from Henan Shibin, while easing restrictions on hydrologic power used by privately-owned smelters in Yunnan were projected to trigger additional increases in June and July.

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Specialty, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources reported a small volume of ammonium thiosulfate “trickling out at very high prices,” with tons reportedly offered at $540-$560/st FOB or DEL in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location.

Western Cornbelt:

Sources continued to describe extremely tight ammonium thiosulfate inventories in the region, with limited new offers in the $400-$450/st FOB or DEL range in the region.

California:

Sources reported no current ammonium thiosulfate offers in the state, with no tons available in early June.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonium thiosulfate was pegged in the $295-$335/st DEL range for the last reported offers in the Pacific Northwest, with inventories described as “short.”

Western Canada:

Ammonium thiosulfate was reported at C$505/mt DEL for limited offers in Saskatchewan.

Calcium Ammonium Nitrate

Benelux, Calcium Ammonium Nitrate, California, CAN-17, Germany, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Specialty

California:

The CAN-17 market in California had reportedly firmed to $290-$310/st FOB, up from the last reported range of $280-$290/st FOB. Sources said demand remains brisk, particularly during the drought.

“With drought conditions, a last application of CAN-17 can make a large difference in terms of turnout, yield, and profitability,” said one regional contact. “One year of stress requires two years to recover, and CAN-17 is an outstanding solution to avoiding stress.”

Pacific Northwest:

CAN-17 pricing remained at $295/st FOB Kennewick in early June.

Germany/Benelux:

CAN markets in Europe continue to show strong demand and tight supply. Yara on June 9 increased its list price for CAN-27 (YaraBelaNitromag) by €12/mt in both Germany and Benelux, setting the new price at €267/mt bulk CIF for July deliveries.

Rival supplier OCI early this month set its new season pricing for CAN deliveries at €260/mt bulk CIF (GM June 4, p. 19).

Yara has also posted new list prices for July deliveries of its YaraBelaSulfan, setting the price at €277.50/mt bulk CIF for Germany and €279/mt CIF for Benelux. The new prices are a €12/mt increase on the last price postings, announced on May 21.

NPSZ

Cornbelt, Market Watch, NPSZ, Pacific N.W.

Cornbelt:

The NPSZ market was reported at $670-$700/st FOB in the Cornbelt, depending on location.

Pacific Northwest:

40-Rock pricing in the Pacific Northwest moved up $20/st during the week, firming from $720-$730/st DEL up to $740-$750/st DEL, with the low reported in Idaho and the high in Washington and Oregon. The FOB market was pegged in the $730-$745/st range as the week progressed, depending on location.