U.S. Gulf:
NOLA granular urea barges were reported to have traded
at $383-$404/st FOB, up from the week-ago $363-$390/st FOB. Prompt and/or
loaded barges were put at the higher end of the range, with full June at the
lower. Upriver NOLA equivalent barges were reported to have traded at
$403-$405/st FOB.
Price ideas continued to be strong at press time, with
$410/st FOB being seen as the next possible price point.
While
Indian price ideas were way up, most NOLA players cited U.S. demand,
particularly for rice season, as the main reason for strong prices.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices were quoted at $425-$445/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $5/st from last report, with the low reported at East Dubuque, Ill., and the high at Burns Harbor, Ind. The market FOB Cincinnati, Ohio, was pegged firmly in the $435-$440/st FOB range in late May, while pricing FOB Ottawa, Ill., was quoted at $430/st.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing
reportedly backed off $5/st to $415-$435/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with
the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high at Port Neal, Iowa. The market
FOB Camanche, Iowa, was pegged at the $425/st level for May-June tons.
Northern Plains:
The urea market
in late May was quoted at $425-$440/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., and $445-$450/st
FOB central North Dakota terminals. Delivered tons ranged broadly at
$470-$495/st in North Dakota, with the higher numbers reported in western areas
of the state.
Great Lakes:
The urea market
ranged broadly from $445-$515/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with the low at
Burns Harbor and the upper end reported at Saginaw, Mich., reflecting an
increase of more than $40/st since mid-April. Sources said most other Michigan
terminals were out of product in late May.
Northeast:
Urea pricing was
quoted at $440/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., for May-June tons, up $5/st from
offers in early May.
India:
The
RCF tender closed on May 25 with 12 companies offering 1.48 million mt. One
source said the actual number of tons that might be realistically available was
lower because there was a lot of double counting of tons.
Going
into the tender, sources speculated on a price range of $380-$400/mt CFR. By
the day the tender documents were opened on May 25, industry watchers moved the
price range to $400-$415/mt CFR. In the end, the lowest offer for East Coast
ports was from Koch at $408.88/mt CFR. For the West Coast, Ameropa was lowest
at $418/mt CFR. There were only two offers from producers of 45,000 mt each at
$396/mt FOB and $390/mt FOB.
The
East Coast dominated the offers at 795,000 mt. West Coast offers totaled
595,000 mt, with 90,000 mt offered directly from two producers. The initial
thinking was that if the prices were high enough, more Chinese tons could be
drawn into the tender. However, prices for urea kept rising in China and the
Arab Gulf, leading some to worry that producers will see little value in
meeting netback prices that might be lower than where they think the market is.
In
response to the offers, on Friday RCF accepted the Koch and Ameropa prices and
issued letters to the other traders to match those levels. The buyer counterbid
at $373.88/mt FOB to the two Arab Gulf producers. Sources said the producers are
not expected to accept the bid.
|
Offering Company
|
Quantity
Offered (mt)
|
US$/mt CFR
|
Discharge Port
|
|
Ameropa
|
61,500
|
426.00
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
51,500
|
418.00
|
Mundra
|
|
Swiss Singapore
|
47,000
|
422.30
|
Gangavaram-Paradip-Kakinada-Tuticorin
|
|
47,000
|
422.30
|
Vizag-Krishnapatnam-Karaikal-Kamarajar
|
|
47,000
|
422.30
|
Gangavaram-Paradip-Vizag
|
|
47,000
|
425.00
|
Pipavav-Adani Tuna-Adani
Dahej
|
|
47,000
|
425.00
|
Mundra-New
Mangalore-Adani Hazira
|
|
47,000
|
425.00
|
Kandla-Rozy-Jaigarh
|
|
Medallion
|
60,000
|
433.17
|
Gangavaram-Krishnapatnam-Karaikal-Kakinada-Paradip
|
|
Continental
|
50,000
|
445.00
|
Krishnapatnam-Kakinada-Gangavaram-Vizag
|
|
50,000
|
442.00
|
Mundra-Kandla-Adani
Tuna
|
|
Koch
|
60,000
|
408.88
|
Gangavaram-Krishnapatnam
|
|
60,000
|
408.88
|
Gangavaram-Krishnapatnam
|
|
50,000
|
419.88
|
Mundra-Adani
Tuna-Kandla
|
|
Amber
|
65,000
|
429.45
|
Krishnapatnam-Karaikal-Kakinada-Paradip
|
|
65,000
|
433.45
|
Mundra-Adani
Tuna-Pipavav
|
|
Dreymoor
|
52,500
|
425.91
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
52,500
|
424.10
|
Pipavav
|
|
Transglobe
|
50,000
|
428.50
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
50,000
|
435.00
|
Mundra
|
|
Keytrade
|
50,000
|
435.00
|
Paradip
|
|
55,000
|
435.00
|
Kakinada
|
|
45,000
|
432.00
|
Kandla-Mundra
|
|
Samsung
|
45,000
|
424.85
|
Kakinada
|
|
45,000
|
424.85
|
Krishnapatnam
|
|
45,000
|
427.85
|
New
Mangalore
|
|
45,000
|
427.85
|
Mundra
|
|
Direct
Offers from Producers
|
|
Producer
|
Quantity (mt)
|
US$/mt FOB
|
|
Fertiglobe
|
45,000
|
396.00
|
|
Muntajat
|
45,000
|
390.00
|
By Friday morning, seven
traders had indicated their acceptance of the counterbid from RCF for a total
of about 560,000 mt.
|
Company
|
Cargoes
|
Coast
|
|
Ameropa
|
1
|
West
|
|
Amber
|
1
|
West
|
|
Dreymoor
|
1
|
West
|
|
Keytrade
|
1
|
West
|
|
Swiss Singapore
|
2-3
|
West
|
|
Samsung
|
2
|
West
|
|
Koch
|
2
|
East
|
The
award of two cargoes to Koch is not surprising. The trader offered two cargoes
into the East Coast at the same price. One observer noted, however, that it is
surprising Koch is not also doing a West Coast shipment. Its price was only
$1/mt lower than the winning Ameropa one. The other companies accepting the
West Coast price of $418/mt CFR will have to lower their prices $6-$15/mt to
meet the Ameropa award.
At
least two cargoes from the Black Sea are possible. Sources said Yuzhnyy is
pegged in the mid-$360s/mt FOB, with freight rates around $50/mt. The awards to
Dreymoor and Keytrade, traditional suppliers of FSU material, could easily come
from the Black Sea.
Even
as producers are willing to hedge their prices a bit, India will still get
slammed by the ever-rising freight rates, When the tender closed, freight
between China and the Indian East Coast was around $35/mt. By the time the
pricing envelopes were open, that cost had come up into the low-$40s/mt.
Likewise, the price from the Arab Gulf to the West Coast of India moved up from
the low-$20s/mt to the mid- to upper-$20s/mt.
Sources
said a number of factors are causing the higher rates into India, including
reports that ship crew unions and employment agents are lobbying ship owners to
skip India because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some owners are also hesitant to
send their vessels there because of the quarantine required after making an
Indian port call.
Those
willing to take cargoes into India are charging a premium to their clients. At
the same time, some are also restricting their vessels to only one port of
call. In the past, after unloading its fertilizer a vessel might move to
another port to pick up an outgoing cargo. By restricting their vessels to only
one port, said one trader, the ability to pick up an outgoing commission is
reduced.
Sources
also said some ship owners are making their vessels available for shipments to
other areas, such as Latin America or Europe. This is also done to avoid the
Indian ports. The displacement of many vessels from the South Asian market is
another contributing factor to higher prices.
The
buyer had hoped to secure more tons in this tender. If the 560,000 mt in awards
holds, sources said another tender will have to be called quickly to ensure
enough urea for the current season. Sources said they would not be surprised to
see the next tender called as early as next week.
China:
The
netback from the RCF tender to China is $365-$370/mt FOB. However, producers
are now asking $380-$385/mt FOB for granular and $375-$380/mt FOB for prills.
Sources
said at best 350,000 mt will be shipped from China, if a price agreement can be
reached. These tons reportedly are already at portside warehouses waiting for
export. Some of the tons have already been booked by traders in anticipation of
the Indian tender.
The
short time frame to ship – by June 30 – could mean some congestion at key
ports, said one trader. Another even noted that there are already some backups
for vessels waiting to berth at Chinese ports.
Sources
said domestic demand and prices are stable, helping support the higher prices
producers are asking. Domestic demand is expected to strengthen as regional
domestic distributors look to ensure a plentiful supply of urea for August and
September.
Exports
from China were up almost 50 percent in the first four months of the year,
according to Trade Data Monitor, to
1.3 million mt from 898,000 mt during the same period last year. The main
customers so far this year have been India at 493,000 mt and South Korea at 228,000
mt.
April
2021 exports of 539,000 mt were up a whopping 382 percent from the April 2020 total
of 112,000 mt. India took 249,000 mt last month, up 110 percent from its April
2020 take. South Korea was a distant second at 82,000 mt. followed by Guatemala,
Australia, and Brazil with about 30,000 mt each.
Thailand:
Urea
imports for January-April this year were down 34 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 421,000 mt from
639,000 mt during the same period last year. April 2020 imports were reported
at 239,000 mt. April 2021 imports were down 68 percent, to 76,000 mt from
239,000 mt in April 2020.
The
April year-over-year decline was also matched in February and March.
Middle
East:
Arab
Gulf and Egyptian producers moved urea prices up just as the RCF tender numbers
were being released.
Sources
reported sales out of the Arab Gulf at $385/mt FOB as the tender envelopes were
opened at the beginning of the week. On the heels of the pricing envelopes
opened later in the week. MOPCO reported a sale of 30,000 mt for August at
$408/mt FOB.
The
two Arab Gulf producers who directly offered into the RCF tender submitted
prices of $390/mt and $396/mt FOB. With reports of freight rates in the
mid-$20s/mt, sources said the low West Coast price of $418/mt CFR equates to
the low-$390s/mt FOB. If freights keep going up, traders with Arab Gulf product
will have to do some fast talking to secure tons for India, as the higher
transportation costs eat into the netback.
Sources
had earlier speculated that the Arab Gulf might supply two or three cargoes for
the RCF tender. However, after the Koch West Coast offer of $419/mt CFR, the
next lowest is Swiss Singapore at $425/mt CFR. Some traders were not sure the
company would be able to ensure a netback price from an Arab Gulf producer that
would allow it to participate.
The
paper market for the Arab Gulf is already reflecting a price lower than where
the industry currently sees prices. The paper price is pegged at $387.50/mt FOB
for June and $392.50/mt FOB for July. Sources said the supply of urea out of
the region is expected to remain tight well into August.
Going
into the week, the Egyptian price held steady at $400/mt FOB into July. Just as
the week closed, however, MOPCO confirmed a sale at $408/mt FOB for 30,000 mt
to be shipped in early August.
The
paper market for Egypt is also a bit behind the times. June prices are pegged
at $400/mt FOB, a number long ago achieved for June and July. The July price
was put at $404/mt FOB. In this case, buyers broke the $400/mt FOB barrier for
an August cargo. Sources said Egyptian producers are sold out for June and most
of July.
Black
Sea:
Sources
reported at least two cargoes from Yuzhnyy might be available for the RCF
tender. With freight rates put at $50/mt from Yuzhnyy to West Coast India,
sources said the current talk of prices in the low-$360s/mt FOB fit in well.
Toros
in Turkey will close a tender on May 28 for 25,000-30,000 mt of granular urea
and 5,000-6,000 mt of prilled urea. The material is slated for multiple buyers
in Turkey.
Croatia:
Nitrogen and NPK producer Petrokemija reported on May
27 that it will shut its ammonia and urea plants from May 28 to June 11 for
planned technical maintenance.
The shutdown will enable the optimization of
production according to market demand, and will allow for the necessary repair
and maintenance of equipment in order to minimize the risk of unplanned
shutdowns during the autumn season, according to a SeeNews report, citing a company filing.
The Croatian
producer said sufficient volumes have been secured to maintain supplies to the
domestic and regional markets.
Indonesia:
Just before RCF
released the figures from its tender, PIH called a selling tender for its
subsidiary urea plants. The tender closed May 28 for 45,000 mt of granular urea
and 10,000 mt of prilled with a reserve price of $375/mt FOB.
Koch won an award
for 40,000 mt of granular urea at $385.20/mt FOB. Golden Barley took 10,000 mt
of prilled at $376.10/mt FOB. Both awards are for July shipment.
The July loading
time eliminates the use of these awards in the RCF tender, which has a June 30
shipping deadline. The granular price, however, would just work with the
current Indian price.
The new price
represents a significant leap upward. The last business done for both prills
and granular from Indonesia was in the mid-$320s/mt FOB.
Brazil:
Urea
prices in Brazil are edging up. Sources are calling the Paranagua market $413-$440/mt
CFR. Some traders outside the country have a tighter view of the market, saying
business is mostly restricted to the $420-$430/mt CFR range. However, producers
claim the real price is closer to $445/mt CFR, but without any evidence to back
up that assertion.
Some
of the upward movement comes from expectations related to the Indian tender and
its higher prices. At the same time, however, there appears to be a real
shortage of material inland. Buyers are looking to top off their requirements
in preparation for the August and September application season.
Rondonopolis is
pegged at $525-$580/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The barter rate changed this week to
62.77 bags of corn for 1 mt of urea at Rondonopolis.