All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Indonesia, Market Watch, Middle East, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA urea barges were put in the $302-$325/st FOB range. Early-week trades were noted in the $302-$315/st FOB range, with late week business reported as high as $325/st FOB. This compares to the week-ago $300-$340/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea remained under pressure in early February. Sources pegged the Eastern Cornbelt urea market at $370-$405/st FOB, down another $10/st from last week, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market reported in the $380-$390/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea dropped to $360-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis, Mo., market quoted at the $360-$370/st FOB level, down $10/st from the previous week. The Port Neal, Iowa, market was also reported at $370/st FOB at midweek.

Northern Plains:

Urea terminal prices continued to fall, with new offers in the Northern Plains reported at $360-$370/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., for river-open tons, $440/st FOB Carrington, N.D., for 2Q shipment, and $480-$500/st DEL for spring tons in North Dakota. Those prices were down from the previous $390-$400/st FOB St. Paul, $515/st FOB Carrington, and $520-$545/st DEL levels.

Northeast:

The urea market slipped to $395/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, $425-$430/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., and $430-$450/st FOB Baltimore, Md., down from the previous range of $460-$500/st FOB in the Northeast.

Eastern Canada:

Urea pricing dropped to a wide C$880-$1,020/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location and supplier, down C$25/mt at the low end of the range.

India:

The week closed with rising expectations that a urea tender will be called soon. Sources reported that officials at the Department of Fertilizers (DoF) had scheduled a meeting for Friday, Feb. 17, to finalize the paperwork for a tender.

Sources said the tender could be called as early as immediately after the meeting, or more likely, over the weekend. IPL will reportedly handle the tender, and will be looking to book 1-1.5 million mt delivered in March and April. Some sources speculated the tender would be handled by RCF, citing rumored problems between IPL and the DoF.

Earlier reports had the Indian government pushing the tender back until April, in what some traders called an effort to keep prices down. By the end of the week, however, sources said the DoF would be looking for a longer shipping period that would include April deliveries.

Normally, Indian tenders have a 4-6 week delivery window. If the reports out of India are accurate, the tender could have a 90-day delivery period. Sources said the extended period would give companies more flexibility in their offers, while also limiting upward pressure on urea pricing.

Even as the DoF moves ahead with a traditional urea tender, sources said that some discussions are still taking place related to the IPL tender that closed earlier in February, for a long-term commitment to supply 600,000 mt. The IPL tender was an unusual move that was designed to ensure a steady supply of urea without overheating the market. Only one producer was reported to participate in the tender.

The Indian government is stepping up its plan to increase production of Nano Urea (Liquid). The liquid fertilizer, sold in 500 ml bottles, was heralded by the government as a viable alternative to traditional urea applications. The product provides nitrogen directly to the crop plant instead of only being absorbed through the soil. The patent for Nano Urea is held by IFFCO.

Two new Nano Urea-producing IFFCO plants were dedicated in mid-February. The government is promoting the product because it will cost less than standard urea and will have less impact on the soil.

Critics question the value of the product, which carries 4% nitrogen content compared to the 26% in standard urea. IFFCO said that because the Nano Urea is absorbed directly into the plant instead of through the root system, the lower nitrogen content will not detract from the efficiency of the product to support sustained crop growth.

Indonesia:

Pupuk closed a tender for prilled and granular urea. Liven took two cargoes of 6,000 mt each of prilled urea at $367/mt FOB. Nitron took 45,000 mt of granular urea at $348.88/mt FOB.

The tender was the first of 2023 in the market. Sources were expecting Pupuk to delay a tender call until after India made its call.

Middle East: 

Sources put the price out of the Arab Gulf in the upper-$330s/mt FOB. Traders could not point to any specific sales at that level, but noted that all discussions for product were at $335-$340/mt FOB.

The March paper market for Arab Gulf material was pegged at $310-$320/mt FOB. The April price was put at $325-$335/mt FOB, and at $320-$335/mt FOB for May.

No new sales were reported from Egypt, although traders said that early-week discussions indicated prices around $380/mt FOB. Sources said the $380/mt FOB price fits with both the steady slide in prices and with reported Arab Gulf price levels.

The paper market for Egypt showed a significant drop in pricing. The price for March was reported at $325-$335/mt FOB. April paper was pegged at $330-$340/mt FOB, with May at $330-$345/mt FOB.

China:

Sources reported sub-$400/mt FOB prices at China. Traders said discussions are at $380-$390/mt FOB for the limited tons being made available for export.

Even with domestic inventories at a reported five-year high, sources said they do not expect to see much urea coming out of China in the next couple of months. The government is expected to maintain its tight hold on exports to ensure lower prices and high inventories for the domestic market.

Black Sea:

The estimated price for prilled urea came down to $320/mt FOB. The fall was in line with price drops from other major urea producing areas.

Brazil:

The landed price came off to $320-$340/mt CFR. The drop in pricing was not surprising, as the softening followed price drops from around the world. Material from sanctioned countries is being offered at $320/mt CFR.

The price in Rondonopolis was reported at $550-$560/mt FOB ex-warehouse, down about $30/mt from the previous week. Rumors that India was close to issuing its urea tender prompted some players to halt negotiations until the impact of the tender could be assessed.

The March paper market, reported in a $320-$345/mt CFR range, predicted a further slide in prices. By April, however, prices are expected to rebound. April paper was reported at $330-$345/mt CFR, followed by $340-$350/mt CFR for May, and a high price of $365/mt CFR for June.

UAN

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA barges continued to slide as the week progressed. Prices were called $250-$275/st ($7.81-$8.59/unit) FOB, down from the week-ago $295-$300/st ($9.22-$9.38/unit) FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 remained at $325-$350/st ($10.16-$10.94/unit) FOB river terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low for February-March shipment and the upper end for 2Q tons. UAN-28 was steady at $293-$298/st ($10.46-$10.64/unit) FOB Cincinnati for the latest offers.

Western Cornbelt:

The UAN-32 price remained at $325-$350/st ($10.16-$10.94/unit) FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment.

Northern Plains:

UAN-28 pricing for prompt tons dropped to a low of $300-$320/st ($10.71-$11.43/unit) FOB in North Dakota, down from $390/st ($13.93/unit) FOB in late January. Sources said pricing for spring shipment remained as high as $375/st ($13.39/unit) FOB and $390/st ($13.93/unit) DEL in North Dakota, however, with the last spring offers for UAN-32 at Winona, Minn., reported at the $440/st ($13.75/unit) FOB level.

Northeast:

UAN-32 slipped to $365-$380/st ($11.41-$11.88/unit) FOB Baltimore, down from $410-$415/st ($12.81-$12.97/unit) FOB in late January. UAN-32 pricing out of terminals in upstate New York was also down significantly, falling to $425/st ($13.28/unit) FOB from the previous $500/st ($15.63/unit) FOB level.

Eastern Canada:

UAN-28 pricing was pegged in a broad range at C$683-$935/mt (C$24.39-$33.39/unit) FOB in Eastern Canada, reflecting a drop of C$12/mt at the low end of the range. Recent UAN-32 offers were confirmed as low as C$780/mt (C$24.38/unit) FOB in Ontario, down C$15/mt from last report.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA barge prices continued to soften, with prices now put in the $310-$320/st FOB range, down from the week-ago $325-$330/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium sulfate slipped to $370-$400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. New transactions in the South Central region were confirmed at $370-$390/st FOB, down sharply from the previous $400-$435/st FOB range.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was unchanged at $385-$405/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

Delivered ammonium sulfate in the Northern Plains was pegged at $390-$430/st for the latest offers, down from the previous $410-$440/st DEL level, depending on time of shipment. Warehouse pricing ranged from $390-$415/st FOB in the region, with the low at St. Paul and the high at Sioux City, Iowa.

Northeast:

Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Northeast dropped to $405-$455/st FOB and $475-$485/st DEL, depending on location.

Eastern Canada:

The ammonium sulfate market in Eastern Canada remained at C$720-$825/mt FOB in mid-February, steady from last report.

China:

The limited demand for ammonium sulfate by NPK producers has combined with limited production to edge prices higher. Sources now put the export price of caprolactam-grade amsul at $170/mt FOB.

Brazil:

The Brazil ammonium sulfate market showed a slight dip at the upper end of the range, tightening the market to $220-$230/mt CFR. Demand still remains light-but-steady, even as reports circulate that supplies are limited. The Rondonopolis price was reported down to $330/mt FOB ex-warehouse, following the steady drop in urea prices.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Pakistan, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida phosphate players reported softer pricing for the week, with both DAP and MAP trucks falling to $640/st FOB, down $10/st from $650/st FOB noted one week earlier.

North Florida MAP trucks were priced at $650/st FOB, unchanged from the prior report. Sources described steady sales volumes through the week.

US Gulf:

Sources described a muted week on the NOLA phosphate barge market, with some players reportedly taking a wait-and-see approach one week after barges recorded a dramatic decline in values.

Most called DAP barges unmoved from the week-ago $590/st FOB floor, while sources reported price ideas in a wide $595-$610/st FOB at the top of the range, on par with week-ago levels. A rumored $585/st FOB transaction went unconfirmed on Feb. 16.

NOLA MAP barges were similarly flat, with most calling pricing at a $550-$555/st FOB low, unchanged from the previous week floor, while continuing to put the weekly top at $565/st FOB.

Domestic phosphate producers were noted reevaluating offer levels for both DAP and MAP during the week, seeking to take into account both the market’s recent volatility and the outlook for spring.

Some players attributed the market’s recent price weakness to indexing efforts by importers ahead of the spring season, while others ascribed the softness to low seasonal demand. Values were generally anticipated to stabilize as the market creeps closer to spring. “I would expect prices to rebound somewhat with a demand kick, and once these pricing windows have abated,” one trader said.

The NOLA DAP barge market was reported in a $590-$610/st FOB range, unmoved from the prior report. MAP barges were called $550-$565/st FOB, rolling over from week-ago levels.

US Exports:

Players reported no new spot business out of the US Gulf during the week, leaving pricing at $650/st FOB. New offer levels continued to be quoted at $650/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP slipped to $660-$680/st FOB and MAP to $650-$670/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $660-$670/st FOB for DAP and $650-$660/st FOB for MAP in mid-February.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was pegged at $660-$680/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported at the low end of the range. MAP remained in a broad range at $625-$660/st FOB in the region, with the low again confirmed at St. Louis.

Northern Plains:

DAP was quoted at $690-$700/st FOB St. Paul, down from the prior $705/st level. MAP dropped to $650-$670/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with the high at St. Paul and the low reported on a spot basis in North Dakota for brown tons. Delivered green MAP slipped to $730/st in North Dakota, down from the prior $765/st DEL level.

Northeast:

Phosphate pricing at East Liverpool dropped to $690/st FOB for DAP and $670/st FOB for MAP, down $25-$30/st from last report. Delivered MAP in southern Pennsylvania was pegged at the $725-$730/st level, down from the prior $750/st DEL level.

Eastern Canada:

MAP prices in Eastern Canada slipped to a broad C$1,080-$1,280/mt FOB for recent offers, down another C$20/mt at the low end of the range. DAP pricing at Montreal remained at the C$1,090/mt FOB level, unchanged from last report.

China:   

Sources said that spring demand for DAP is pushing up the domestic price to $640-$650/mt FOB. This level is too high for the global DAP market. In response, the export price was pegged at $610-$620/mt FOB.

India:     

Sources reported DAP offers at $680/mt CFR, which would fit with the reported domestic price in China. Deals with other suppliers are coming in much lower, however. Ma’aden reportedly settled a deal at $665/mt CFR, and JPMC sold a cargo at $655/mt CFR.

A tender for 50,000 mt of DAP was called by RCF to close Feb. 27. Sources said the tender is most likely a price exploration venture as buyers look for public indicators of prices. Many of the recent deals into India have concluded directly between buyers and Chinese producers. These deals are less transparent than any of the tenders, leaving both sides of the negotiating table without firm figures to negotiate deals.

Phosphate producers have been lobbying the national government to raise the minimum retail sale price (MRSP). The producers said they did not raise prices during 2022 – at the order of the government – even as input prices rose. They are now saying the cost of producing DAP is still more expensive than what they are allowed to charge and are in danger of losing money, even with the subsidies provided by the government.

The Indian government is beginning to promote Nano DAP as a replacement for traditional DAP. Nano DAP is similar to Nano Urea, in that it relies more on absorption through the leaves of the plant rather than via the root system.

Pakistan:       

Sources said buyers have begun making inquiries to Arab and Chinese DAP producers, looking for product for the second quarter. So far, the sides were only reported in the talking stage.

Brazil:   

The price gap for MAP widened at the lower end, dropping the range to $650-$660/mt CFR. Sellers are clinging to the higher end of the range, with deals being concluded at the lower end.

The Rondonopolis price was reported down at $785-$810/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The drop was put to reports that most local buyers already have all the MAP they need.

The paper market for Brazil MAP sales was reported at $580-$640/mt CFR for March, and at $600-$660/mt CFR for April.

TSP

Bangladesh, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf

US Gulf:

TSP barge offers were noted in a general $525-$530/st FOB range, off from $560-$570/st FOB reported previously.

Eastern Cornbelt:

TSP was steady at $595-$610/st FOB Cincinnati in mid-February.

Bangladesh:

Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corp. (BADC) on Feb. 15 signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Groupe Chimique Tunisien (GCT) for the import of 150,000 mt of TSP from Tunisia this year, according to a report by Bangladesh’s New Nation newspaper, citing Tunisia’s Ministry of Agriculture.

BADC has been importing TSP from Tunisia on a government-to-government basis since 2008, according to the ministry. Both BADC and GCT are state-owned.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

February phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid was unchanged at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for February tons.

Northern Plains:

Phos acid pricing for February shipments remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Northern Plains.

India:

First-quarter phos acid contracts for tons sold into India were noted at $1,050/mt P2O5 CFR, down $50-$150/mt P2O5 from $1,100-$1,200/mt P2O5 CFR in the fourth quarter.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

The 10-34-0 market was quoted at $695-$705/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was steady at $655-$685/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high in Iowa.

Northern Plains:

The last 10-34-0 offers remained at $655-$675/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered pricing pegged in a broad range at $700-$750/st in central and western North Dakota.

Northeast:

10-34-0 pricing in New York was steady at the $750/st FOB level in mid-February.

Country Partners Cooperative – Management Brief

Management Briefs, Western Cornbelt

Country Partners Cooperative, a regional, farmer-owned co-op with 22 locations in Nebraska offering products and services in agronomy, grain, energy, and feed, announced on Feb. 15 that Chris Wagner has been named CEO.

Country Partners posted sales of $490 million, total net income of $21.5 million, and earnings of approximately $17.9 million for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2022. Wagner will work from the co-op’s headquarters in Gothenburg, Neb.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

Contracts for molten sulfur delivered to Tampa stood at $130/lt CFR for the first quarter, up $40/lt from $90/lt in the prior period.

Refinery utilization moved lower in the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent report. Refiners ran at a combined 86.5% of capacity for the week ending Feb. 10, a 1.4 percentage point decrease from the prior-week 87.9%. The rate tracked ahead of both the year-ago 85.3% and five-year average of 86.0%.

Daily crude inputs were also lower, the EIA noted, softening to an average 15.027 million barrels/d, down 383,000 barrel/d from 15.410 million barrels/d reported one week earlier.

The EIA is forecasting US refinery utilization to remain at or above 90% in 2023 and 2024, according to the agency’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, issued in February. The EIA predicted average 2023 utilization at 90.8%, followed by a slight dip to 90.3% in 2024. Utilization averaged above 91% in 2022, the EIA said.

If confirmed, the healthy refining rates would mark a continued rebound from 2020, when reduced demand early in the COVID-19 pandemic sent average refinery utilization plummeting to an average 78.8%, the lowest yearly level since the EIA began collecting data in 1997. Utilization rarely climbs above 95% due to periods of planned maintenance and reduced seasonal demand.

US Gulf:

A 150,000 barrel/d crude distillation unit (CDU) and 48,000 barrel/d vacuum distillation unit were taken offline early in the week at the Valero Port Arthur, Texas, refinery, Genscape reported. The CDU had been expected to enter a planned maintenance turnaround early in the year.

US Gulf sulfur pricing was reported softening to a general $115-$120/mt FOB range, down from $120/mt FOB at last check. New business included the sale of two cargoes priced at a reported $118/mt FOB. The first cargo, totaling 15,000 mt, was scheduled to load in February, while the second, a 30,000 mt vessel, was slated for March loading.

Brazil:

Sources reported a purchase tender from CMOC awarded in the high-$130s/mt CFR during the week. The new business moved the Brazil market down from the last-reported $145/mt CFR level.

Import contracts for the first quarter were understood at $172-$186/mt CFR, with minimal tons reported under contract for the period.

Vancouver:

Recent price increases out of China lifted Vancouver into a $115-$120/mt FOB range, from $110-$115/mt FOB reported previously.

Alberta:

Sulfur shipped from Alberta was indicated netting back $15-$60/mt FOB to sellers, unchanged from one week earlier. The range included both molten tons contracted into the US market and prilled material selling internationally through the Vancouver export market.

West Coast:

West Coast prilled sulfur indications firmed to a $115-$120/mt FOB range, up $5/mt from week-ago levels.

Sources put molten contracts at $125-$135/lt FOB for the first quarter, rising from $75-$79/lt FOB in 4Q.

China:     

Players reported the China import sulfur market firming to a $150-$154/mt CFR range during the week, above $130-$140/mt CFR reported previously.

ADNOC:

Sources described February ADNOC posted prices at $127/mt FOB Ruwais, off $33/mt from $160/mt FOB in January.

Qatar:

Muntajat solid sulfur offers were heard at $124/mt FOB Ras Laffan for February, falling $31/mt from $155/mt FOB noted in the prior period.