All posts by traceybg@gmail.com

Phosphate vessel avoids collision

St. Petersburg, Fla.-A reoccurrence of the 1980 tragedy that killed 35 people in the nation’s worst bridge accident was avoided March 28 when a harbor pilot was able to maneuver a disabled freighter hauling 10,000 mt of phosphate away from the main span of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge. According to local media reports, the pilot, Tobias Rose, said the steering on the vessel, Antilles II, malfunctioned about 2,000 yards from the bridge, but he was able to maneuver to a sandbar off the shipping channel and run aground before reaching the bridge. In the 1980 collision, the southbound main span was struck during heavy weather, sending 35 people plunging to their deaths. A phosphate source said the boat was carrying MAP to Latin America and had been loaded at the Eastern Terminal. The bridge was closed to vehicular traffic for about two hours early Wednesday morning, and a group of tug boats pulled the freighter off the sandbar and took it to the Port of Manatee for repairs and inspection.

Fertilizer helps ConAgra unit achieve record profit

Omaha-Stronger results from its fertilizer operations helped ConAgra Foods Inc.’s Trade and Merchandising (T&M) segment achieve record operating profits during the third quarter ending Feb. 25, 2007. T&M profits reached a record $62 million, up 3 percent from year-ago levels. T&M sales were up 5 percent at $293 million. Company-wide, ConAgra saw an increase in net income and sales despite the recall of 100 percent of its peanut butter products following reports of Salmonella contamination. ConAgra estimates the recall will cost between $50-$60 million, with some $48 million of this recognized in the third quarter. Third-quarter ConAgra-wide net income was $192.6 million on sales of $2.92 billion, versus the year-ago loss of $25.2 million on sales of $2.86 billion. Nine-month net income was $572.6 million on sales of $8.7 billion, up from the year-ago $474.6 million and $8.54 billion, respectively.

ICL declares $373.9 M dividend

Tel Aviv-Israel Chemicals Ltd. declared an annual dividend of $373.9 million, its largest in history, and it just happens to be the entire amount of its net income for the year ending Dec. 31, 2006. Ninety million of the amount was paid Sept. 16, 2006, with the remainder, or $283.9 million, to be paid on April 25, 2007. Net income for the year, at $373.9 million, was actually off from 2005’s $422.2 million. Sales for 2006 were up 9 percent, to $3.26 billion from the year-ago $2.99 billion, despite a decline in potash sales due to delayed negotiations with major customers. The Astaris acquisition in late 2005 helped boost 2006 sales. Fourth-quarter net income and sales were above the year-ago period, with net income at $90.2 million on sales of $839.6 million, versus the year-ago $82 million and $775 million, respectively. As a result of the delayed potash negotiations, ICL Fertilizers saw a decrease in operating income to $263.3 million on sales of $1.45 billion for the year, versus the year-ago $348.1 million and $1.57 billion, respectively. The fourth quarter saw a rebound as operating earnings were $102.1 million on sales of $421.9 million, versus the year-ago $71 million and $366.3 million, respectively.

Income off, sales up at Innophos

Cranbury, N.J.-Specialty phosphate producer Innophos Holdings Inc., a spin-off from Rhodia Inc., saw reduced income due to some $24.6 million in IPO and debt reduction expenses in 2006. The company had a net loss of $32.8 million on sales of $541.8 million for the year ending Dec. 31, 2006, versus the year-ago loss of $11.7 million and $535.5 million. Operating income was $30.9 million in 2006, versus 2005’s $41.3 million. There was a fourth-quarter net loss of $24.7 million on sales of $131.6 million, versus the year-ago loss of $5.2 million and $129.4 million, respectively, as well as an operating loss of $3.9 million versus year-ago operating income of $10.1 million.

TFI praises action on AN security bill

Washington-The Fertilizer Institute last week praised Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, and members of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Emerging Threats, Cybersecurity and Science and Technology for approving the “Secure Handling of Ammonium Nitrate Act of 2007” (H.R. 1680). The bill was approved by voice vote and is scheduled for full committee markup after the April congressional district work session. The bill would require the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to create a regulatory system to help keep ammonium nitrate out of the hands of those with criminal intent. It would also require all producers, sellers, and purchasers who take custody to register with DHS. In addition, the bill would require producers and sellers to maintain records of all ammonium nitrate sales for three years, including the name, address, phone number, and registration number of the person to whom the product was sold, as well as the date and quantity of the sale. The bill, which does not preempt state law, requires all thefts or unexplained losses to be reported to federal law enforcement within 24 hours.

ARA opposes changes in appropriations bill

Washington, D.C.-The House and Senate Appropriations Committees have approved competing versions of the fiscal year 2007 emergency supplemental appropriations bill. According to the Agricultural Retailers Association, $4 billion of the $120 billion appropriations total is for emergency agricultural disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers; the bills also include changes to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s proposed chemical facility security regulations that ARA opposes and considers disruptive. ARA said changes to the House bill would allow “government disapproval and shutdown of a facility based on non-security prescriptive measures, such as environmentally-driven operational changes, instead of a risk-based performance standard of overall site security.” ARA also criticized the House bill for withdrawing protections for sensitive chemical security information by exposing vulnerability information gleaned from submitted documents; for striking a ban on “obstructionist third-party lawsuits;” and for allowing states and local governments “sovereignty over the U.S. government on the protection of chemical plants from terrorism and other acts of war.” ARA cautioned that “if the House and Senate chemical security provisions are allowed to remain in any final supplemental funding bill, the U.S. agricultural industry will be open to even more frivolous lawsuits from anti-chemical activist groups.” ARA noted the President Bush has threatened to veto the bill due to the inclusion of a timetable to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq over the next 18 months, as well as excessive spending.

Management Briefs

Intrepid Mining LLC has hired Patrick “Pat” Avery as chief operating officer, effective April 9. He will be responsible for the oversight of all Intrepid Mining’s operations in New Mexico and Utah. He will also be directly involved in all aspects of the company’s worldwide strategic planning and business development.

Avery has held multiple senior executive positions with JR Simplot Co., and most recently was their senior vice president and general manager of retail businesses. He holds a BA in Biology and Chemistry from the University of Colorado, Boulder, an MS in Civil Engineering from Loyola University, and an MBA from Pepperdine University.


Dr. Thomas Jensen is joining the staff of the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI) as Northern Great Plains regional director, effective May 1. He will be based in IPNI’s Saskatoon, Sask., office with responsibility for agronomic programs in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan, plus Montana and North Dakota. Dr. Jensen has held agronomic positions with Agricore United, Agrium Inc., and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. His PhD is from the University of Alberta.

Dr. Adrian Johnston, who has served as director of the Northern Great Plains region for the past several years, was recently promoted to Asia Group, vice president, with responsibility for IPNI programs in China, India, and Southeast Asia. He is also based in Saskatoon.


H.J. Baker & Bro. Inc. recently announced that Richard “Ric” Valagene will serve as director of operations, a newly created position at the family-held company. Valagene will guide the manufacturing operations of the company’s Feed, Sulphur, and Tiger-Sul business units, and will be accountable for operational efficiency, product quality, and capital project management. He will also be responsible for meeting government regulations, including safety, health, and environmental compliance. Valagene will report directly to Christopher Smith, CEO. Valagene’s previous work experienced includes senior management positions with the two largest pet food industry leaders, Alpo and Ralston Purina, and as the former director of operations of NuPetra LLC. H.J. Baker & Bro. Inc., headquartered in Westport, Conn., serves as the holding company for: H.J. Baker Fertilizer Group, H.J. Baker Sulphur Group, and H.J. Baker Feed Products Group.

Market Watch

AMMONIA

U.S. Gulf: More players last week were reported to have signed on to $360/mt DEL for first half April. Yara had already signed on at that price for the whole month, with a spot cargo also reported at $363/mt DEL.

There was nothing new reported on the NOLA barge market. However, among the nitrogens it could be said that it was the ammonia sellers who appeared the most nervous, citing persistent rains in the Midwest that might tempt farmers to switch to another nitrogen.

Eastern Cornbelt: The ammonia market was tagged at $465-$480/st FOB regional terminals, with the low reported in Illinois. One source there said the lower numbers were being driven by traders with long prepay inventories. There was movement reported last week, however, along with reports of tight inventories at some terminals. Reference prices from one regional supplier for forward contract ammonia for May ranged from $470-$480/st FOB in the region.

Wet weather kept movement at a standstill in much of the region last week, and some dealers were starting to look at the calendar with just a hint of concern. Sources in Indiana and Ohio said fieldwork is definitely behind schedule, with one Indiana dealer speculating that the combination of additional weather delays and high fertilizer prices could easily impact spring volumes. The Ohio source said growers in his location normally prefer to finish hay, pasture, and wheat topdressing before planting corn, but there’s still a lot of the topdress activity to complete.

Western Cornbelt: The anhydrous ammonia market was quoted at $435-$470/st FOB in the region, with the low reported out of spot locations in Nebraska and Iowa. Forward contract ammonia for May was referenced at $460/st FOB Garner and Spencer, Iowa, and $470/st FOB Palmyra, Mo. There were reports of a little preplant ammonia movement in Iowa and Nebraska early in the week, but wet weather slowed the pace as the week advanced.

Northern Plains: Anhydrous ammonia was quoted at $460-$470/st FOB, with reference levels as high as $480/st FOB for prompt tons. Delivered ammonia in North Dakota was pegged at $490-$505/st, with some movement reported last week. The upper end of the delivered range reflected dealer reference pricing from Dakota Gasification’s Beulah, N.D., plant, which was back in production in late March. Dakota sources talked of transportation problems due to limited truck availability, however.

Forward contract ammonia for May was referenced at $460/st FOB Glenwood, Minn., Pine Bend, Minn., Grand Forks, N.D., and Velva, N.D.

Eastern Canada: The anhydrous ammonia market had firmed to $615-$625/mt FOB Courtright, Ont., with the upper end reflecting the dealer reference. No firm delivered prices were available from western shipping points last week. Since mid-February, Agrium’s rail-delivered ammonia price in the region has been “set by account manager,” with the last published level going back to $850/mt on Feb. 9.

Black Sea: Asian sources say the price has begun a seasonal slide. The combination of a slowdown in orders from the United States and Indian buyers holding off until the phos acid contracts conclude is hitting the selling price. Sources peg the market at $275-$285/mt FOB with room to fall.

Middle East: Purchases from India are helping hold prices in the upper $320s/mt FOB. The good news for buyers is that the Safco IV plant did not go down as originally planned. The plant was originally scheduled to shut down mid-March when the facility was to be handed over to Sabic by the contractor. At that time, the plant would stay down for about a month to install some new parts and fine-tune other parts of the operation. Sources now say the needed parts cannot be delivered as scheduled, so for now the plant will remain operating until June or July.

With the plant running, sources say it will be able to pay back Mitsui the tons it borrowed that much sooner. Sources now say the swapped tons will be paid back by mid-May at the latest. For buyers this means more ammonia will be available for spot purchases sometime this summer.

One pessimistic buyer, however, noted that Asian demand in particular is very strong and could easily snap up the extra tons that will come out of Safco IV. For the buyers, this source said, the best they can hope for is a stable price instead. A serious drop in price is too much to hope for, he added.

India remains the focus for hints on the trend in pricing. Sources report a deal between IFFCO and Iran in the $360s/mt CFR occurred March 20. Just a week later, another deal by the same buyer out of the Middle East was pegged at $353/mt CFR.

Once the freight difference is knocked off the Iranian tons, both deals show a netback in the high $320s/mt FOB.

UREA

U.S. Gulf: Prices spanned a broader range last week, with some players saying the granular barge market dipped below the $360/st FOB mark before rebounding. And rebound it did, as players said that floaters ready to go upriver were the hot ticket. Later in the week, sources said those barges could garner $365/st FOB, with some quoting $367/st FOB for the next trade.

While some were still seeing no change to prills, others disagreed, saying that more imports are headed toward the U.S., a factor that was starting to put pressure on prill price ideas.

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular urea was tagged at $400-$407/st FOB regional terminals. Reference prices from some regional suppliers were reported as high as $420/st FOB inland terminals in Ohio last week. The dealer price FOB Cincinnati was quoted at the $405/st mark.

Western Cornbelt: Granular urea was $395-$405/st FOB, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference pricing.

Northern Plains: Granular urea was quoted at $395-$405/st FOB the Twin Cities. North Dakota sources reported no current bids out of Carrington, N.D., and no delivered pricing out of Canada. One Dakota source did report a $415-$425/st rail-DEL price out of Enid, Okla., however, but the five-week lag time on delivery was a concern. Forward contract urea for May was available from one regional supplier for $410/st FOB Pine Bend, Minn., and $425/st DEL in North Dakota and northern Minnesota.

Northeast: Granular urea pricing was quoted at $396-$397/st FOB Philadelphia, and as high as $410/st to the dealer FOB Baltimore. Further south, inventories were extremely low or tapped out at Brunswick and Savannah, Ga.

Eastern Canada: Granular urea was in short supply in the region – “tight as hen’s teeth, no matter who you talk to,” was how one source put it. Ontario sources pegged the market in a broad range at $495-$530/mt FOB last week, with dealer reference prices reportedly as high as $565/mt FOB at some locations. There were also reports of prilled urea available at the $465/mt FOB level in Quebec.

Delivered urea was quoted at $568-$580/mt in Ontario and Quebec, depending on location and supplier. The lower number was reported from Agrium, which had raised its rail-delivered urea price from $553/mt on March 9 and $528/mt on Feb. 20.

Black Sea: Prices have come off their 10-year high as buyers reject offers in the $290s/mt FOB. The price drop came last week as buyers first pushed on the door in the low $300s/mt FOB to test the market and found the door ajar. Fearing they might be captured at prices that could end up being higher than the upcoming market, the buyers backed off.

Reportedly, Mexico also tested the market with a bid of $290/mt FOB out of the Baltics, but once it found producers more than willing to start writing a contract, the buyers stepped away.

One source said producers are now dangling $295/mt FOB, but with no takers. When asked if the market was waiting for final decisions from India and Latin America, he replied the market is waiting for the bottom. The Mexican test may have been the first salvo, he said, but the rapid withdrawal of the bid indicated, to him, that the bottom is still a ways off.

With the Black Sea producers facing a falling market, the threat of Chinese tons taking over some of their business lessens. Current Chinese export prices equate back to a $295/mt FOB Yuzhnyy price, said one source. Once the Black Sea slips significantly below that level, the Chinese tons will leave the international market.

For now, sources peg the market at $290-$295/mt FOB. One trader noted that the current price range is where talks are taking place. He notes that there has been no business done at these levels.

Middle East: Safco IV is up and running. Sources say the production is back to normal and orders for contracted buyers are being filled without any problems.

Sources say the producers in the area are fully booked. The tons that are moving out are reportedly cargoes under long-term contracts. No spot business was done out of the area last week that might help determine a new actual price for the product.

Producers are looking to boost the price as high as $360/mt FOB, with a willingness to accept $340/mt FOB.

Sources in Asia say, however, that $340/mt FOB is just a dream of the producers. No one appears willing to pay that much. With only contract and long-term business being carried out, sources say there is no way to identify a new price for product from this area.

The current price for prills and granular in the upper $320s/mt FOB remains the highest in 10 years. At one point – 1999 – the price had dropped to $88/mt FOB, but has been on a steady rise ever since.

Indian buyers continue to talk to the producers. Both sides remain in a stalemate. The buyers are offering one-year contracts with prices set on a formula or negotiated basis. The producers are willing to accept a one-year contract, but only at current prices.

One source noted that once the Indonesian selling tender results are in, the industry might have a better way to triangulate in on the real value of urea from the area.

India: Still no word from IPL and MMTC on major buying plans. Sources report that IPL has signed a letter of intent with Transammonia. For how many tons and on what timetable are still unknowns. One source speculated the deal was more geared to taking care of the Indian NPK producers rather than the end users.

There is a growing expectation that Indian buyers will take Chinese tons once purchasing begins. The Chinese urea, even with the 30 percent export duty, may end up being a reasonably priced purchase if the market remains at current levels.

While downward pressure is mounting on Yuzhnyy and the Arab Gulf, sources say as soon as IPL and MMTC announce they will be taking tons for the upcoming season, the price will rebound.

Indonesia: Pusri and PIM both closed selling tenders March 30. Sources put the bidding prices in the low $300s/mt FOB. Both are expected to award the tons to local traders in 5,000 mt lots. For Pusri, deals at that level are better because their port has a shallow draft. Sources report the most likely buyers for Pusri material will be industrial buyers in the Philippines, Thailand, or Malaysia.

Some in Asia expect to see the PIM material get snapped up by international traders for India. Others say with the falling Black Sea price, Indonesian tons may not make too much sense in India.

Another possibility is for the Indonesian tons to be purchased for the Myanmar tender for 100,000 mt that also closed March 30.

China: Despite a 30 percent duty on exported urea, sources say the current Chinese prices still work in the hot international market.

Reportedly, Helm completed a deal with a Chinese supplier for the CFC/Sri Lanka tender.

Other Chinese tons are being sent to South Korea for use in NPK production to allow the Seoul government to fulfill its promise to help North Korea with fertilizer.

The price in China is now pegged at $310/mt FOB bagged at the port.

Sources say the domestic market has not been as strong as expected, and producers want to make sure they can take advantage of any international opportunity that pops up this semester.

The one thing that could hurt the Chinese exports is shipping. Sources report vessels in the 20-35,000 mt range are getting harder to find. This source pointed out that the dearth of ships is not just related specifically to China but to the whole Asian region.

South Korea: Local media report preparation and shipping of the 300,000 mt of fertilizer aid to North Korea is back on track.

Namhae just closed a deal to take about 10,000 mt of Chinese granular.

Sources expect to see a lot of Chinese material flow into the two Koreas.

China has its own fertilizer help program in place for North Korea. The Seoul government is also proving fertilizer and other agricultural aids.

Myanmar: The government closed a tender March 30 for 100,000 mt. This is a long-anticipated re-entry into the international market, say sources. Unfortunately, they say, the international market remains hot.

Sources speculate the tender will involve more bartering than exchange of currencies. If that is the case, said one trader, the Indian trading houses will be in the most advantageous situation. They will try to ship the fertilizer in exchange for foodstuffs or finished goods.

Bangladesh: BCIC has called another tender to close this week. Sources say this most likely will be used to replace the tender the buyer scrapped in all but name from early March.

The country needs urea. Local media reports and industry watchers from Tokyo to London agree Bangladesh is dangerously low on urea. Incidents of smuggling urea from India are reported regularly in the local press.

The problem of holding tenders in March and April, say sources, is that the deliveries will take place in the middle of the monsoon season. Reportedly, unloading vessels during that season is dependent on the strength of the rain from day to day. Normally rapid unloading could be stretched out days if not weeks, said one source.

NITROGEN SOLUTIONS

U.S. Gulf: UAN continued to be hot last week. While some said barges could be had early in the week in the low $240s, they quickly shot up to $247/st FOB and then over the $250/st FOB mark by the end of the week. Sellers were quoting $257/st FOB by week’s end.

Eastern Cornbelt: UAN was pegged at $8.46-$8.70/unit FOB regional terminals, with the low end FOB Cincinnati. The dealer market for UAN-28 FOB Toledo, Ohio, was tagged at the $240.80/st ($8.60/unit) mark. Forward contract UAN-32 for May was available from one regional supplier at $280.20-$285/st ($8.76-$8.91/unit) FOB in the region last week.

Western Cornbelt: UAN-32 was tagged at $275-$285/st ($8.59-$8.91/unit) FOB regional terminals, reflecting another increase in spot pricing. The upper end was reported in central Nebraska, while the lower numbers were out of Iowa terminals on a spot basis.

Northern Plains: UAN was quoted at a firm $8.65-$8.75/unit FOB in Minnesota; with the low at Winona and the upper end to dealers FOB the Twin Cities. North Dakota sources pegged delivered UAN-28 at $255-$260/st ($9.11-$9.29/unit) from Canadian shipping points. One regional supplier was referencing forward contract UAN-32 for May at $285/st ($8.90/unit) Winona and $286.60/st ($8.96/unit) FOB Pine Bend.

Northeast: UAN-30 was pegged at $237-$245/st ($7.90-$8.17/unit) FOB, with the low at Philadelphia and the upper end reflecting reference pricing at Baltimore. One source claimed a low of $234/st ($7.80/unit) FOB Baltimore last week, but others were doubtful. Another reported a reference level of $240/st ($8.00/unit) FOB Philadelphia as of March 27. UAN-32 out of terminals in upstate New York was referenced as high as $282/st ($8.82/unit) FOB last week.

UAN vessel tons were quoted at a firm $265-$270/mt C&F.

Eastern Canada: UAN-28 was pegged at $305-$320/mt ($10.89-$11.43/unit) FOB terminals in the region, with the upper end reflecting dealer reference pricing FOB Courtright.

AMMONIUM NITRATE

U.S. Gulf: The normally stodgy AN market was acting more like urea and UAN last week. While several players were still calling the market around $250/st FOB, others said supplies had tightened, meaning that suppliers were in the catbird seat. As a result, these sources said if you need a barge by late in the week you were paying up – as high as $265/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium nitrate remained firm at $295-$305/st FOB in the region, with product on allocation out of some shipping points.

Eastern Canada: Some sources claimed ammonium nitrate pricing had firmed to $395-$400/mt FOB in Ontario, but others pegged the low end at $350-$355/mt FOB in Ontario and Quebec in late March. Reference prices for nitrate were quoted as high as $445/mt FOB at some Ontario shipping points last week.

AMMONIUM SULFATE

Eastern Cornbelt: Granular ammonium sulfate was tagged at $205-$210/st FOB in the region, with the upper end reported in Ohio. Product was in very tight supply, and reference prices were reported at higher numbers out of some locations.

Western Cornbelt: Ammonium sulfate was in very tight supply in late March. “It’s basically not available or ‘call for availability’,” said one source. Sources tagged the market at a solid $205/st FOB for the last business.

Northern Plains: Granular ammonium sulfate was quoted at $220-$230/st DEL in North Dakota, depending on supplier. Dakota Gasification’s delivered pricing included $220/st in North Dakota, $230.st in Minnesota, and $235/st in South Dakota. A Minnesota source tagged the FOB price at a firm $225/st last week, but product was virtually sold out.

Northeast: Ammonium sulfate was quoted at $185-$192/st FOB in the region, with the upper end reported at Philadelphia and an additional increase on the books for April 2. Ammonium sulfate was in very tight supply, with several sources saying product was unavailable out of Hopewell, Va., last week.

Eastern Canada: Granular ammonium sulfate was in very tight supply, with the market quoted at $265-$310/mt FOB in the region. The low was reported in southern Ontario last week, but others were skeptical, claiming new tons would be hard to find even at the upper end of the range.

PHOSPHATE

Central Florida: Activity was strong in the southern portion of the country last week, from Kentucky and Virginia south, but the more northern areas on the eastern U.S. will have to dry out some before farmers can get to work in the fields. Once that northern area gets started, warehouse supplies of phosphates were not expected to last long. Because inventories in Central Florida remain at or near nothing, new orders will be hard to place. Only those who placed their requests for product earlier will be in line to have their orders loaded, and most will pay the market price at the time of loading.

As of last week, points in the Midwest served by rail would have had to already been loaded and on the move in order to be used for planting. Warehouses there, as in other areas of the country, are likely to empty quickly.

In some of the corn-planting areas in the East where phosphate has been scarce, farmers were said to have gone ahead and begun planting without adding phosphate to the soil, using only nitrates and potash. In the southern areas of the Midwest, a similar situation was said to be going on last week. Once the corn is in the ground phosphates could be applied as a side dressing, but yields will be down from what they might have been if the phosphate had been available prior to planting. The result of lower yields might help offset the record number of acres of corn being planted nationally. Lately the high price of corn had been dropping on the futures market, so the lower yields might help push the price back up again. Farmers who were able to get enough phosphate for their plantings would fare well.

Inventories remain extremely low, while prices continue to be extremely high. High prices will likely remain for some time to come, as demand continues to outstrip supply. However, CF and Mosaic have begun summer fill programs at $385/st FOB for NOLA DAP barges, which was below the current market value, but much higher than any normal summer fill program in the past.

New orders in Central Florida remained skimpy at best last week due to a lack of supply, and the price remained stable at $370/st FOB. In Texas, Agrifos, which was running behind on delivery dates according to buyers, was selling truck loads at $420/st FOB. PotashCorp’s Central Florida reference price was unchanged last week at $370/st FOB.

U.S. Gulf: Most of the area north of St. Louis was still too wet to plant last week, and it may be another week or two before conditions become ripe for farmers. South of St. Louis, farmers were back in their fields but still faced a critical shortage of phosphate. In areas such as Oklahoma, corn farmers were said to be already in the process of planting without having added phosphate to the soil, relying instead on nitrates and potash.

Because the northern areas of the Cornbelt have yet to get into the market, the impact of that coming demand was still questionable last week. Warehouses in the north were believed to be carrying relatively low inventories, and supplies were not expected to last more than a couple of weeks in many cases. The southern areas of the country have already consumed virtually all of the available phosphate, and the situation will only become worse once the north joins the market. Last week, it appeared the biggest hurdle to prices continuing to rise rapidly was a lack of product to sell. If more were available, more sales could be made and the price would go up even faster.

Along the Arkansas River, most terminals were out – or about to be. Phosphate arriving by NOLA DAP barges was moving out of warehouses in less than 24 hours in many cases. Sources complained there was simply no phosphate to be found, and bidding by buyers was underway.

Summer fill programs for the river system have been announced by both CF and Mosaic, with prices said to be $385/st FOB. However, many terminal operators said they were nervous about building up inventories at those prices. Most use credit to buy for fill, which can be costly, and their financial situation would be even worse if the price goes down before the fall season begins. Those who need product for distribution in July will be the most likely to take advantage of the summer fill programs.

Sales of barges that had yet to be loaded in New Orleans were bringing the lowest prices last week – as low as $400/st FOB. However, most buyers were in more of a hurry and willing to pay for barges already loaded and on the water. Depending on location, prices for floaters were running between $405/st FOB and $414/st FOB. The NOLA DAP barge price for the Gulf last week was a wide $400-$415/st FOB, compared to the previous week’s range of $400-$408/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt: DAP was tagged at $425-$438/st FOB in the region, with the upper end FOB Maumee, Ohio. MAP was quoted at $434/st FOB Maumee. Forward contract DAP for May was being referenced at $428/st FOB Peoria, Ill., and $431/st FOB Cincinnati from one supplier. No current prices were reported for TSP in the region, while 10-34-0 remained firmly at $320-$325/st FOB and in tight supply.

Retail pricing for phosphates was playing catch-up in some locations after the rapid upswing in wholesale costs in recent weeks. On the retail level, sources reported a wide range of pricing, from a low of $380/st to a high (and more common) level of $440-$450/st FOB to the grower.

Western Cornbelt: DAP was quoted in a broad range at $405-$435/st FOB in the region, with the low on a spot basis in Iowa and the upper numbers to the dealer in central Nebraska. MAP was $410-$435/st FOB in the region, although new sales were few and dealers were simply waiting for movement before they could free up bin space for new tons. One source said the low end of those ranges would disappear quickly when movement picks up.

As in areas east of the Mississippi, regional sources talked of retail phosphate pricing as much as $50/st under current wholesale replacement costs in some areas.

No current prices were reported for TSP in the region. 10-34-0 was quoted at $310-$325/st FOB, with very limited tons. One source talked of 30 day delays in acid shipments due to production problems and railcar shortages, depending on the producer.

Northern Plains: DAP and MAP were in tight supply, with pricing pegged at a firm $425/st FOB in Minnesota. North Dakota sources quoted rail-delivered MAP at $425-$430/st out of Canada. One supplier was offering forward contract DAP for May at $434/st FOB Pine Bend and $449/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, with MAP $3/st less.

10-34-0 was also in very tight supply, with the market quoted at $325/st FOB in Minnesota and $360/st DEL in North Dakota from Canadian shipping points.

Northeast: Phosphate pricing was up significantly from last report. Sources tagged the dealer market for DAP firmly at the $427/st mark FOB E. Liverpool, Ohio, while MAP was reported at $427/st FOB Philadelphia. 10-34-0 remained at $280/st FOB terminals in upstate New York.

Eastern Canada: Phosphates were also in very tight supply in the region. MAP pricing had firmed significantly to $550-$560/mt FOB in Ontario, while DAP was quoted at $565-$575/mt FOB the warehouse. TSP was reported in a very broad range at $460-$500/mt FOB in the region, with the low reported in southern Ontario. The upper end of the range was also reported for rail-delivered TSP to some locations.

Western U.S.: Effective April 2, Agrium’s ammonium phosphate postings will move up in the Western U.S. New MAP levels on that date include $420/st DEL in Montana and Wyoming; $425/st DEL in southern Idaho, Utah, Nevada, and Oregon’s Malheur County; $425/st FOB and $430/st DEL in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; and $435/st FOB or rail-DEL in California and Arizona. 16-20-0 postings from the company will move on April 2 to $285/st FOB in Washington, northern Idaho, and Oregon excluding Malheur County; $290/st DEL in Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Washington; and $295/st rail-DEL.

U.S. Export: The export market continued to move upward last week. PhosChem made a sale of 20,000 mt of DAP/MAP into Brazil at $435-$436/mt FOB. In addition, Transammonia sold a vessel of phosphate to Pakistan/American at $430/mt CFR. The origin of that phosphate was unclear, but was believed to be coming from China, and the freight was not available, so an FOB price could not be determined.

No word last week on any potential new contract between PhosChem and the Chinese cooperative, but some type of an agreement for the new year was expected.

With the most recent sale to Brazil, the export DAP price range last week moved up to $435-$436/mt FOB, up from $420-$423/mt FOB the previous week. The trend on the export market continues to be bullish as a result of low inventories worldwide.

Pakistan: The government will soon enter the market to import 50,000 mt of DAP through the National Fertilizer Corp. (NFC), instead of TCP. Reports are that Multi-commerce offered two cargoes of Chinese origin DAP (25,000 each) to NFC. The price was put in the $385-$388/mt CFR Karachi range for May shipment.

In early March, importers and dealers raised prices of different fertilizers, including DAP and MAP, by over 60 percent to reflect higher global prices. In fiscal year 2005-06, Pakistan imported 700,000 tons of DAP, the bulk of which was imported in Rabi season and a small percentage in Kharif.

POTASH

Eastern Cornbelt: Potash remained at $212-$224/st FOB regional warehouses, with the upper end FOB Ohio locations.

Western Cornbelt: Potash remained at $208-$222/st FOB in the region, depending on grade and location. Sources continued to talk of a possible increase, but, as one source said, that won’t happen until product moves.

Northern Plains: Potash pricing FOB Saskatchewan mines was steady at $185-$188/st for standard, $191/st for coarse, $193/st for soluble, and $193-$198/st for granular. Regional potash prices ranged from $215-$222/st FOB warehouse or DEL, depending on grade and location.

Northeast: Delivered potash was generally reported in the $226-$236/st range in the region for coarse or granular potash, with soluble quoted as high as $260/st in some areas. Out of E. Liverpool, granular potash was reportedly referenced at the $226/st FOB level last week.

Eastern Canada: Potash out of the regional warehouse system was quoted at $285-$310/mt FOB last week, with the upper end reflecting adjusted reference pricing to the dealer in Ontario. Agrium’s rail-delivered coarse potash price remained at $301/mt to Ontario and Quebec locations. Potash FOB New Brunswick mines remained at $257-$263/mt, depending on grade.

SULFUR

Tampa: Late last week, Mosaic announced it had settled second-quarter sulfur contract pricing at an increase of $5.50/lt above the first quarter. That amount would regain the $4.50/lt the sulfur producers lost in the previous quarter and add $1/lt. It was not known last week whether Mosaic’s other major producers would agree to the new price. PotashCorp had not reached an agreement at that time, and was still negotiating. Until all of the parties on both sides have reached an agreement on the price, Green Markets‘ sulfur price index will not be changed.

Vancouver: The situation in Vancouver, which has pushed prices higher on the world market, was slightly but not significantly better last week, and some refiners in Alberta were facing the possibility of blocking sulfur, which they would rather not do.

MARKET NOTES

Senegal: India’s IFFCO and Senegal’s ICS have agreed to finalize a recapitalization plan that will require the reduction and restructuring of ICS debt and injection by the shareholders of at least US$80 million in cash before June 30, 2007. The Government of Senegal may also participate in the recapitalization. If IFFCO can come up with the funding by May 31, 2007, it can take control of the company.

Russia: EuroChem reports that its subsidiary, Kovdorsky Ore-Mining Plant, has won the auction for the exploration and development of magnetite and apatite ore located in deep levels of the Kovdor apatite-magnetite deposit. The auction was held March 27.

Kovdorsky GOK (KGOK) will be issued a license for 20 years. Exploration work should be performed within four years, with a feasibility study prepared within five years from the license issue date. Commercial production should start in seven years.

The total surface area of the site under the license is 3,136 sq. km; its depth is 350 m to 2,000 m below ground level.

EuroChem says KGOK currently holds the license for the upper beds of the deposit and performs its commercial opencast development. Since the start of the development, over 485 million mt of ore have been produced and prepared at ore-preparation plants. The actual elevation of the lower boundary (bottom) of the opencast mine is now minus 140 m. The apatite concentrate produced by Kovdorsky GOK is the main raw material for all EuroChem enterprises producing phosphate fertilizers – EuroChem Belorechenskie Minudobrenia, Phosphorit, and Lifosa AB.

EuroChem says the license for the deep level exploration of the apatite-magnetite deposit will permit the enterprise to secure a necessary raw material base for a long-term period. According to the KGOK, the opencasting depth of the deposit will reduce to an actual elevation minus 635 m to extend the period of the deposit development at a stable production rate of 16 million mt of ore per year through to 2039. The complete decay in the project opencast mining rate is expected in 2049.

The Week in Fertilizer Stocks

Company Symbol Price Week Ago Year Ago
Producer
Agrium AGU 37.56 39.59 25.20
CF Industries CF 38.78 42.94 16.70
Mosaic MOS 26.37 27.49 13.99
PotashCorp POT 156.62 159.50 86.46
Terra Industries TRA 16.86 18.57 7.09
Terra Nitrogen TNH 53.85 55.50 20.30
Distribution/Retail
Andersons Inc. ANDE 43.41 42.30 38.45
Lesco LSCO 14.38 14.36 16.57
Scotts SMG 43.84 43.62 45.95
UAP UAPH 25.95 24.27 21.12