US Gulf:
NOLA
urea barges slipped to $355-$375/st FOB for October-November in a thinly traded
market, down from last week’s $380-$405/st FOB range. Sources said prompt,
loaded urea barges were still fetching a premium at $397/st FOB NOLA at
midweek, however.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea
was unchanged at $450-$470/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on
location, with the low confirmed in Illinois. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was
quoted in the $465-$470/st FOB range at mid-month.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea
remained at $450-$470/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at
St. Louis, Mo., and Port Neal, Iowa. Some terminals were reportedly out of
product in mid-October.
Southern Plains:
Urea
pricing in the Southern Plains slipped to $445-$465/st FOB, down from the
previous $475-$485/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at Enid, Okla., and the
high at Catoosa/Inola, Okla. Sources pegged the Houston, Texas, market at the
$460/st FOB level during the week, give or take.
South Central:
The
urea market dropped to $420-$470/st FOB in the South Central region, with the
low confirmed at Convent, La., and the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis,
Tenn., market was reported at the $460/st FOB level, while Kentucky sources
quoted the latest offers out of Ohio River terminals in the $440-$460/st FOB
range.
Southeast:
Urea
prices in the Southeast were down slightly at $450/st FOB port terminals, below
the previous $460-$465/st FOB range.
India:
Sources
were united in the view that India will need to buy at least 3 million mt of
urea by February 2024. This makes the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender, set to
close on Oct. 20, vital to the country’s supply train.
Pricing
expectations for the tender are now focused on $410-$435/mt CFR, with a
projected take of 1.5 million mt. Traders remain concerned that a seller could
offer one outlier cargo at a price far below the rest of the offers, however,
as happened in the Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) tender.
The
tender’s current pricing expectations match price ideas out of the Arab Gulf
and Indonesia. Should an offer come in much lower, however, other suppliers may
be unable to match the price, leaving India desperately short of the urea it
needs for the rest of the year.
Traders
previously reported greater-than-expected demand for urea in August. Combined
with the limited tonnage booked in the RCF September tender, sources believe a
severe urea shortage could occur unless the upcoming IPL tender secures at
least 1.5 million mt and is quickly followed with another tender.
Black
Sea:
Prilled
urea out of the Black Sea remained steady at $360/mt FOB, following the trend
in other major markets.
Southeast
Asia:
The
Indonesian urea price remains at $406/mt FOB, based on the last auction held by
Pupuk in September. While sources previously said there would be no new sales
for the remainder of the year, one more major export offer is now expected.
The
resignation of the Indonesian agricultural minister late last week could be one
possible hitch, however. The resignation came after the minister was named in a
far-reaching corruption probe. The Ministry of Agriculture sets the urea export
quota and authorizes the sale of product.
Throughout
September, sources reported corruption investigators combing through Pupuk’s
files, delaying auction calls and leading some international traders to voice
concerns about purchasing opportunities. It is unclear, for now, how the
minister’s resignation and the ongoing investigation will affect remaining
sales for the year.
Even
as concerns that more tons may not be available out of Indonesia, neighboring
countries appear to be in a buying mood. Sources said stronger rice prices and
good rains are encouraging farmers to step up their buying.
Middle
East:
No
new urea spot deals were reported, leaving the price at $420/mt FOB. Sources
said the area has gone quiet as plans are laid for offers into the IPL tender.
Sources
reported discussions for November and December shipment at $400/mt FOB, but
nothing has been concluded. Deals at this level would see urea delivered to
India at the lowest end of the estimated price for the IPL tender. The market’s
recent $420/mt FOB price would put the landed price into India at the higher
end of estimates.
Egyptian
producers have also gone quiet following recent deals into Ethiopia and smaller
lots into Europe. The price remains at $440/mt FOB.
Iranian
urea exports stood at 3.7 million mt in January-September, according to Trade
Data Monitor, unchanged from one year earlier. Third-quarter exports were
1.6 million mt, up 7% from the 1.5 million shipped in July-September 2022.
September shipments were 408,000 mt, a 30% drop from 584,000 mt in September
2022.
China:
Traders
put the current export-equivalent price for granular urea at $410/mt FOB. As
permission to export granular product is severely limited, international
traders have looked at the ex-plant price to estimate the export price. Prilled
urea remained at the $385-$390/mt FOB level, set by the last Indian tender.
There
are no expectations that Chinese product will play a role in the upcoming
Indian tender, sources said. Prilled urea is being authorized for export in
small lots of 6,000-12,000 mt, a size that cannot compete in the Indian market.
Brazil:
Brazil
urea prices were quoted at $410-$420/mt CFR, falling from $420-$425/mt CFR at
last report. Lower prices were rumored but unconfirmed on Oct. 12.
The urea
market in Rondonopolis followed imports lower. Sellers have ample availability
for October but are awaiting the results of the India tender, resulting in
$525-$550/mt FOB ex-warehouse offers. Few transactions were reported
concluding, however, as farmers remain hesitant due to continued weakness in
the corn market.
January-September
Brazil urea imports softened 7% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor
reported, to 4.8 million mt from 5.1 million mt. About three-quarters of the
imports came from five countries – Oman, Qatar, Russia, Nigeria, and Algeria.
September
imports were noted at 818,000 mt, a 17% increase from the 700,000 mt received
in September 2022. Third-quarter imports totaled 1.9 million mt, down slightly
from the 2 million mt logged in July-September 2022.
Poland:
Grupa
Azoty produced an estimated 94,000 mt of urea in September, the company
reported, up from 86,000 mt in August.