US Gulf:
NOLA
urea barges were reported at $520-$530/st FOB, softening from the week-ago
$508-$550/st FOB. Sources said the prior week’s prices had shot up to $550/st
FOB after news broke of the new Indian tender. However, that news soon lost its
luster and prices were once again on the decline at NOLA and at major inland US
price points.
Players had much broader price ideas for December
cargoes, reporting $535-$570/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The
urea market was pegged at $590-$635/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the
low confirmed in Illinois on a spot basis. Urea pricing at Cincinnati, Ohio,
was quoted in the $610-$625/st FOB range at midweek, depending on supplier.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea
prices dropped to $580-$610/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from the prior
week’s $600-$630/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo. Sources
quoted the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market at $590-$605/st FOB, while pricing
at St. Paul, Minn., was reported at $615-$630/st FOB.
California:
Although
urea postings remained as high as $780/st FOB Stockton from some suppliers,
sources said the market for new offers was closer to $700-$725/st FOB most port
terminals in California. No current delivered prices were reported in the
state.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea prices were down
$60-$70/st from last report, to $675-$680/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with
the low confirmed at Rivergate, Ore.
Rail-DEL urea pricing was pegged in the $675-$695/st range in early November,
with truck-DEL tons reported at $730/st on a spot basis.
Western Canada:
Urea
prices were down significantly in Western Canada. Sources quoted delivered
pricing in the C$1,040-$1,060/mt range, below the previous C$1,110-$1,130/mt
DEL level, while FOB offers fell in the C$1,025-$1,060/mt range, down from
C$1,085-$1,135/mt FOB in mid-October.
India:
Traders
and producers are quietly trying to figure out how to deal with the NFL tender
that closes on Nov. 14. So far, expectations are that prices will be lower than
the $649-$655/mt CFR from the IOPL tender last month.
The
amount of urea to be secured is also expected to be less. Sources speculated
that the take will most likely be less than 1 million mt. The shipping deadline
is Dec. 22, and traders said the short delivery time could mean fewer tons will
be available for offer.
Because
the material will be arriving so late in the season, sources speculated it
would most likely be used as buffer stock to build up reserves for the
beginning of the next application season.
Pakistan:
While
doubts remain that Makhtom Logistic International will be able to fulfill its
offer of 300,000 mt at $520/mt CFR, TCP moved ahead and secured a government-to-government
deal with China for the same amount.
The
Pakistan government authorized TCP to issue the award to Makhtom. Many in the
industry said the award was made, but now sources are doubting whether that
indeed happened. The low price offered, which sources said was way off the
market norms, would make it difficult for the company to perform.
In the end, the TCP talks with China have paid off. A deal for 300,000 mt from China on a government-to-government basis became public on Nov. 11. Sources said Sinochem and CNOOC were involved in the deal. Initially, the delivery period was set for November and December. Sources said the deadline has been extended to January/February 2023.
Initially, sources said TCP was pursuing both the deal with China and the Makhtom award. It is now unclear if that was the case.
Apparently,
TCP remains interested in securing a government-to-government deal for 300,000
mt with China. So far, said sources, TCP is still in the early stages of the
talks, which only involve representatives from the Chinese embassy in Pakistan.
Bangladesh:
According o local media reports, the government gave BCIC clearance to buy 60,000 mt of granular urea. Half of the allotment will come from Qatar under a government-to-government arrangement. The other 30,000 mt will come from domestic producer KAFCO.
Indonesia:
Traders
are still trying to figure out why Persero made a big deal about the MOU with
Fertiglobe to handle international sales of Indonesian urea. One trading house
said they, too, were offered an MOU for the same purpose.
Some
traders suggested the fanfare over the urea agreement seems aimed at gaining some
publicity. The real focus, said sources, is more on obtaining green ammonia
production technology for Indonesia.
Middle
East:
Producers
have gone quiet. Sources said they are processing their orders from the
IPL/India tender and quietly calculating what they want to charge for the NFL
tender. Rumors rose that $610/mt FOB was being discussed, but as is usual, no
new spot business was concluded so near the closing of an Indian tender.
Traders
said nothing public is expected from the producers until after the NFL prices
are revealed on Nov. 15. Even then, said one trader, the producers are more
likely to let the numbers speak for themselves rather than letting statements
from the production side underscore the expected price shift.
After
a quick run-up in prices in Egypt, trade there also went quiet. Sources said
the bulk of the business last week is aimed at covering short sales into
Europe. Prices are expected to come off the $625-$630/mt FOB levels achieved
last week once the NFL tender numbers are released.
China:
Sources said prilled sales for lots of 6,000-12,000 mt were done at $560/mt FOB. At the same time, a granular sale was also reported at $600/mt FOB.
The
transactions took place while talks were taking place with Ethiopia for a
government-to-government deal of 500,000 mt. TCP in Pakistan is asking for a
similar arrangement for 300,000 mt. Sources said the Ethiopians appear to have
a better chance at securing a deal.
Deals with Chinese producers for 300,000 mt to Pakistan and 200,000 mt for Ethiopia were revealed on Nov. 11. The sales are government-to-government arrangements. Sources said these deals could take China out of the spot export market. With exports restricted, having these large deals in hand could allow producers to better manage the paperwork for approval and shipping of their product. It will also eat up the tonnage normally offered on the spot market to India and other buyers.
Ethiopia:
A
deal was done late this week for 200,000 mt of granular urea to be shipped to
Ethiopia by a Chinese producer. The arrangement appears to have been part of
talks EABC held with the Chinese government and the urea producer.
The
talks began when little interest was shown in a September EABC tender for
930,000 mt of granular urea. The urea was to be shipped in scheduled lots
through June 2023. Sources said additional talks will continue with two of the
tender participants – Fertiglobe and a Chinese trader – to secure more
material.
Urea
imports for January-October 2022 were reported at 546,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 14% from
the 531,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were
Egypt with 355,000 mt and the United Arab Emirates with 100,000 mt. No imports
were reported for October 2022, compared with 100,000 mt imported in October
2021.
Black
Sea:
The
latest estimate of the price for prilled urea out of the Black Sea is put at
$505-$530/mt FOB.
Brazil:
After
initial indications that prices might move up because of the NFL/India urea
tender call, sources said the landed price remained stable at $580-$630/mt CFR.
Earlier reports that the range would be higher were dismissed by international traders.
By the end of the week, their description of the Brazilian urea market as being
dead proved accurate.
Deals
at the lower end of the range reportedly involved product from North Africa. As
previously reported, urea imports showed a year-over-year drop of 7.5% for
January-October. Demand for urea has backed off, said sources, partly because
of the higher prices throughout the year. Ammonium sulfate took up the slack
for the nitrogen demand of blenders. Looking into November, the vessel line-up
shows a reduction of about 4% from November 2021 deliveries.
The
Rondonopolis urea price tightened to $755-$780/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Demand is
slow, partly because of demonstrations by farmers and other rural activists
against the results of the presidential election, which are causing delays in
shipments and access to supply centers. Demand is expected to pick up for the
corn season application, however.