All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

India, Russia Working on Potash Supply Deal

India is looking to strike a deal with Russian potash producer Uralkali PJSC for the supply of 1 million mt of potash, India’s Economic Times has reported, citing an unnamed senior official in India’s Department of Fertilizers.

The two countries have formed a committee, headed by the Secretary of the Department of Fertilizers and his counterpart in the Russian Trade Ministry, to iron out the details of the deal, according to the report.

The focus is to secure supplies at reasonable rates, the report official was cited as saying.

India imported 142,811 mt of potash from Russia in calendar 2021 out of a total of 3.16 million mt, while in 2020, it imported 751,894 mt from Russia out of a 5.02 million mt total, according to Trade Data Monitor (TDM).

Potash imports this calendar year through to Aug. 31 amounted to 1.86 million mt, with no imports from Russia, according to TDM.

Fortescue, Kenya Partner on Green NH3 Project

Perth, Australia-based Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) and the Government of Kenya on Nov. 8 signed a binding Framework Agreement on the sidelines of COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, under which they will work together to develop by 2025 a 300MW capacity generation green ammonia and green fertilizer complex, FFI said in a media statement, announcing the agreement signing.

The development aims to provide affordable green fertilizer to the Kenyan domestic market and address food security, while also negating the need for importing equivalent amounts of fertilizer.

The green ammonia and green fertilizer facility will be located in the Olkaria geothermal field, to the south of Lake Naivasha in Kenya’s Great Rift Valley. The proposed project will now move into the pre-feasibility study phase. FFI said it expects to make a Final Investment Decision on the project in 2023.

FFI and the Kenyan government intend the green ammonia and fertilizer production plant to be followed by the start of feasibility studies for two further projects that could scale up renewable electricity generation for green industries by up to 25GW, which ultimately could produce up to 1.7 million mt/y of green hydrogen for export.

Kenya President William Ruto and Fortescue Executive Chairman Andrew Forrest first discussed the agreement during their meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York in September 2022, said FFI.

“By stepping away from fossil fuels to use green ammonia, Kenya can eliminate its reliance on imports, reduce the cost of fertilizer, and increase its food and economic security,” said Forrest.

Kenya’s main fertilizer imports in volumes terms comprise DAP, urea, and ammonium sulfate. The country also imports small quantities of MAP, CAN, MOP, and SOP, according to Trade Data Monitor .

Kenya Selected Fertilizer Imports

Mt 2020 2021 Jan-Aug 2021 Jan-Aug 2022
DAP 315,174 261,272 163,174 87,204
         
Saudi Arabia 205,037 195,474 131,400 53,400
Morocco 45,632 34,024 0 33,372
Russia 56,369 29,000 29,000 0
         
Urea 146,457 111,701 97,446 49,272
Of which imported from:        
Qatar 90,360 43,544 43,544 32,671
Saudi Arabia 46,850 31,167 27,016 10,836
         
AS 23,516 15,917    
         
China 18,187 11,129    

Borealis, Yildrim Launch Takeover Bid for Rosier

Vienna-based fertilizers and polyolefins major Borealis AG and Turkey’s Yildirim Holding AŞ on Nov. 8 jointly announced they have signed a binding agreement for Yilfert Holding, a Yildirim subsidiary, to launch a mandatory takeover bid, followed by a squeeze-out, for Belgian fertilizer firm Rosier SA.

In September, Borealis and Yilfert Holding announced they had inked a binding agreement for the acquisition of all of Borealis’ shares in Rosier (GM Sept. 30, p. 30). Borealis currently holds 98.09% of Rosier’s shares.

The Vienna-based company said the closing of the acquisition of all of its shares in Rosier by Yilfert is subject to certain regulatory approvals and Borealis concluding the squeeze-out. Borealis in June had announced its intention to launch a squeeze-out offer for the remaining shares in the Belgian fertilizer company that it did not own, at a price of €20 per share (GM June 10, p. 26).

“However, Borealis and Yildirim agreed on Nov. 7 that the transaction will be closed upon the regulatory approvals being received, and that Yildirim will as soon as possible after such closing launch a mandatory takeover bid followed by a squeeze-out for the remaining Rosier shares at a price of €20 [approximately $20 at current exchange rates] per share, in accordance with article 53 of the Belgian Royal Decree on Public Takeover Bids,” said Borealis in its Nov. 8 statement.

The Vienna-based company said accordingly it will not launch a squeeze-out offer.

Moustier-headquartered Rosier produces and distributes a range of granulated fertilizers, liquid fertilizers, NPKs, and hydrosoluble fertilizers. The company has two production sites: at Moustier, Belgium, and Sas van Gent in the Netherlands. In FY2021, Rosier reported a unaudited net loss of -€36.9 million on sales of €233.8 million (GM Feb. 11. p. 33).

Borealis is a 75% owned subsidiary of Austrian oil and gas group, OMV AG.

Lifosa Now Plans December Production Restart

Lithuanian phosphate fertilizer producer AB Lifosa, a subsidiary of EuroChem Group AG, now expects to restart production in December – albeit at reduced capacity, according to a Bloomberg report on Nov. 7, citing a company statement.

Lifosa’s main product is DAP, with a production capacity of some 1 million mt/y.

Local media last week, citing the company’s temporary administrator, Rimvydas Vaštakas, reported that Lifosa aimed to restart operations in mid-November (GM Nov. 4, p. 34 ).

According to this week’s Bloomberg report, Lifosa has reached “an interim agreement with the government-appointed administrator” that had led to the lifting of some supply restrictions. Operations will restart in December at reduced capacity if supplies (such as ammonia) can be secured immediately.

The Lithuanian producer halted production in mid-September due to the sudden rise in natural gas prices and a shortage of ammonia GM Sept. 16, p. 29; Sept. 9, p. 28).

Lithuania’s only ammonia producer, AB Achema, suspended operations at the beginning of September due to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, but resumed one ammonia production line and one urea production line on Nov. 1, with plans to resume production of other fertilizer products.

Partnership Begins Commissioning of “Green Egypt”

OCI NV announced the start of the commissioning of the first phase of the green hydrogen plant in Ain Sokhna, Egypt, during an event at COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh. When fully developed, the facility, known as “Green Egypt,” will deliver up to approximately 15,000 mt of green hydrogen as feedstock for the production of up to 90,000 mt/y of green ammonia in the existing EBIC ammonia plant at Ain Sokhna owned by Fertiglobe – OCI’s nitrogen fertilizer joint venture and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC).

Green Egypt is a joint consortium project between Fertiglobe, Norway-based renewable power producer Scatec ASA, Egypt’s Orascom Construction, and The Sovereign Fund of Egypt, and is the first integrated green hydrogen plant in Africa.

Fertiglobe, Scatec ASA, and The Sovereign Fund of Egypt signed an agreement to partner up on the project last October (GM Oct. 15, 2021). Orascom Construction is building the project using Egyptian engineers.

If fully developed, the Green Egypt facility will consist of 100 MW of electrolyzers, powered by 260 MW of solar and wind.

The consortium is in the process of finalizing engineering and technology choices for the 100 MW full-scale plant, and the hydrogen tie-ins for up to 100 MW of electrolysis already have been installed at Fertiglobe’s two existing plants at Ain Sokhna, OCI said.

The partners aim to reach a Final Investment Decision on the facility in 2023.

Uralchem Confirms Humanitarian Fertilizer Shipment to Africa from EU

Russian fertilizer group Uralchem JSC in a statement confirmed the first consignment of fertilizers produced by itself and potash producer Uralkali PJSC (now owned by Uralchem) and which for some time has been held in EU ports as a result of sanctions on Russia will be shipped to Malawi.

According to Uralchem CEO JSC Dmitry Konyaev, the consignment comprises around 20,000 mt of NPK 27:6:6.2, and the consignee will be Uralkali Trading SIA.

Uralchem said it ships fertilizers to certain African countries that are in the most difficult situation free of charge, and is part of a wider humanitarian mission under the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal number two goal to end hunger.

Last week, Post Online Media – among other news reports – cited Secretary-General of United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Rebeca Grynspan as reporting the first humanitarian shipment of Russian fertilizers was anticipated to depart for Africa during the first week of November (GM Nov. 4, p. 35).

The report cited Grynspan as saying the fertilizers are being donated by Uralchem for humanitarian needs in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, with the direct engagement of the World Food Programme (WFP) .

Konyaev said Uralchem/Uralkali intend to continue free shipments of their mineral fertilizers to the African continent, and “are ready to provide additionally around 240,000 mt.” He said this material “is still stuck in European ports and that the company is in the process of UN-assisted negotiations to release the fertilizers.”

Mississippi River is Still a Slow Go; Weather Forecast Gives Some Hope

Thanks to a mix of improving weather conditions and general seasonality, the price to move grain down the Mississippi River has fallen, according to Bloomberg, though river conditions still have a long way to go to get back to normal.

For the week ending Nov. 8, grain spot barge rates from St. Louis dropped 49% to $40.74 from the week-ago $80.12. Even so, that rate is some 145% above the year-ago rate, but well below the all-time record of $105.85 posted the week of Oct. 11.

A confluence of factors have pushed down the prices dramatically in just the past week. One of those factors is simply seasonality, according to Ben Scholl, President of specialty grain buyer Osterbur & Associates. The harvest is coming to an end, and so demand is starting to wane.

But more importantly, the area is finally starting to get some rain. According to Scholl, all the major segments of the river saw rain over the weekend, and more is on the horizon. There’s also Tropical Storm Nicole coming up through Florida and the East Coast that could possibly result in more rain in the Midwest, depending on its ultimate trajectory.

Although closures and dredging operations still disrupt the system daily, the USDA said recent rainfall has helped stabilize portions of the system. It said forecast models indicate rain will help water levels rise near Cairo, Ill., and Memphis, Tenn., in the next few weeks.

Illinois farmer Kenneth “Kenny” Hartman told Bloomberg that he relies solely on the Mississippi to ship his corn and soybeans, saying trucks and trains are not realistic alternatives. This year he saved extra bin space on his farm, which is about 25 miles from St. Louis, made some sales prior to harvest, and tried to haul as much grain as possible to elevators earlier than he usually would have. However, he said such workarounds have limits. He drove to one nearby elevator to find it closed about three hours earlier than normal because it was already full.

“When you start looking at the higher cost of fertilizer, the higher cost of seeds, the higher cost of fuel right now, it just compounds,” said Hartman, who has been farming since the early 1980s. “The profit isn’t what everybody thinks it is – and then the river situation just adds to that.”

Ammonia

US Gulf/Tampa:

Tampa ammonia for December remains under pressure as more European ammonia plants return to production. The November price was down $25/mt, to $1,150/mt CFR from October’s $1,175/mt CFR.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Prompt ammonia pricing was reported in a broad range at $1,275-$1,400/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Trilla, Ill., and the high at East Dubuque, Ill. Limited truck tons offered out of CF terminals were quoted firmly at the $1,350/st FOB level during the week, while pricing FOB Lima, Ohio, remained at $1,300/st FOB.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia pricing was quoted at $1,275-$1,320/st FOB for prompt truck tons in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location.

California:

Anhydrous ammonia postings in California remained at $1,250/st DEL. The aqua ammonia market was unchanged at $271-$336/st FOB, with the low reported for the last offers at Stockton and the high at Sycamore.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was pegged at $1,335-$1,350/st FOB and $1,350/st DEL. The aqua ammonia market remained at $345/st FOB in the region.

Western Canada:

The last prices for ammonia remained at C$1,600-$1,800/mt DEL for fall tons in Western Canada, but no current offers were on the table in early November.

Black Sea:

The continued closure of the Ukrainian ports keeps the market from assessing the cost of ammonia from the Black Sea.

Imports into Turkey, however, are reported at $1,030-$1,050/mt CFR. The deals are said to be under formula-based contracts, and most of the material is reportedly from Arab Gulf suppliers. Turkish buyers have been seeking cargoes from any source, including North Africa and Southeast Asia.

India:

Sources said ammonia buyers are waking up and making more inquiries. Recent small purchases of 6,000-10,000 mt have been reported from Southeast Asia and China. The landed price is now reported at $920/mt CFR for the spot tons being delivered to East Coast ports.

Contracted material under formula-based deals continues to arrive at West Coast ports. The price for this material is reported at $880/mt CFR.

Middle East:

Sources said Arab Gulf producers have excess material, but are reluctant to release it into the market. Reportedly, the producers are holding out for $1,050/mt FOB, but are getting no takers.

Despite the lack of new business, sources said an estimated level based on the price in Northwest Europe would have a netback of $1,015-$1,030/mt FOB. Traders said, however, that bids out of Europe at $1,000/mt CFR would show a netback to the Arab Gulf of $980-$990/mt FOB. This price would fit in with the contract price of material sold to Turkey, which is pegged at $950-$970/mt FOB.

Even OCP in Morocco is looking for lower prices from the Arab producers. Sources said the bids from the phosphate giant would lead to netbacks of $920-$950/mt FOB.

While the producers hold out for a higher price, sources said surplus tons are building up in the holding tanks. Eventually, said one trader, the producers will have to accept a sub-$1,000/mt price to move their product.

Northwest Europe:

Sources reported an ammonia sale into France at $1,150/mt CFR and anther deal into Antwerp at $1,125/mt CFR. Indications for softer pricing are expected to continue as natural gas prices come down.

Sources said the drop in natural gas prices, however, may not continue. Winter is coming, and even with the current high reserves of gas built up in recent months, prices for the first quarter of 2023 are unknown, but likely to be higher.

Even though gas prices have come off, sources said the levels are still at historic highs. Resumption of ammonia production in Europe is under consideration, but some companies seem to be opting for importing the product they need.

Spain, which gets it gas from Algeria rather than Russia, has an advantage in that it can plan ahead for operations using the cheaper gas. Reportedly, at least one ammonia plant is planning to restart in December. Plants in France and Romania, however, which had indicated they might restart operations, have instead gone back to the import market looking for ammonia.

A trader said some companies decided that unless they could be guaranteed gas at current or lower levels for at least three months, there was no incentive to begin opening their plants. Even as some are hesitant, there are a number of ammonia plants that are running.

East Asia:

China remains a new major supplier of ammonia. South Korea, Taiwan, and India have all benefited from Chinese exports. Each of the buyers has taken small lots of ammonia in hand-to-mouth buying rather than booking large quantities to place into storage.

The rest of the market in the area remains listless. Sources said buyers such as South Korea and Taiwan have been asking their long-term suppliers from the Arab Gulf to reduce the amount of ammonia they are required to take with each shipment. In some cases, the buyers are also asking for shipments to be delayed.

The global economic downturn is forcing East Asian factories to cut back on their production as the West struggles with inflation and high interest rates. Reduced demand for their final product means the factories do not need as many inputs, such as ammonia.

Sources are still trying to figure out the purpose of the Persero-UAE/Fertiglobe MOU for marketing urea and ammonia. One trader said Persero already had a better global ammonia marketing operation than Fertiglobe.

Sources speculated that the real purpose of the agreement is that it allows for Indonesia to have access to UAE technology for plant upgrades. International observers noted that this would help Indonesia break into the “green” ammonia market.

Brazil:

January-October 2022 imports of ammonia were reported at 367,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 23% from the 477,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. October 2022 imports were reported at 49,000 mt, compared with 33,000 mt imported during October 2021. Trinidad is the main supplier of ammonia for Brazil.

Occasionally, Brazil exports ammonia. Sources said the exports are done when domestic urea production is not necessary and opportunities present themselves. January-October 2022 exports from Brazil totaled 93,000 mt. October 2022 exports were reported at only 20 mt, but September exports were totaled 44,000 mt.

Urea

US Gulf:

NOLA urea barges were reported at $520-$530/st FOB, softening from the week-ago $508-$550/st FOB. Sources said the prior week’s prices had shot up to $550/st FOB after news broke of the new Indian tender. However, that news soon lost its luster and prices were once again on the decline at NOLA and at major inland US price points.

Players had much broader price ideas for December cargoes, reporting $535-$570/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The urea market was pegged at $590-$635/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Illinois on a spot basis. Urea pricing at Cincinnati, Ohio, was quoted in the $610-$625/st FOB range at midweek, depending on supplier.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices dropped to $580-$610/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from the prior week’s $600-$630/st FOB range, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo. Sources quoted the Catoosa/Inola, Okla., urea market at $590-$605/st FOB, while pricing at St. Paul, Minn., was reported at $615-$630/st FOB.

California:

Although urea postings remained as high as $780/st FOB Stockton from some suppliers, sources said the market for new offers was closer to $700-$725/st FOB most port terminals in California. No current delivered prices were reported in the state.

Pacific Northwest:

Urea prices were down $60-$70/st from last report, to $675-$680/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low confirmed at Rivergate, Ore. Rail-DEL urea pricing was pegged in the $675-$695/st range in early November, with truck-DEL tons reported at $730/st on a spot basis.

Western Canada:

Urea prices were down significantly in Western Canada. Sources quoted delivered pricing in the C$1,040-$1,060/mt range, below the previous C$1,110-$1,130/mt DEL level, while FOB offers fell in the C$1,025-$1,060/mt range, down from C$1,085-$1,135/mt FOB in mid-October.

India:

Traders and producers are quietly trying to figure out how to deal with the NFL tender that closes on Nov. 14. So far, expectations are that prices will be lower than the $649-$655/mt CFR from the IOPL tender last month.

The amount of urea to be secured is also expected to be less. Sources speculated that the take will most likely be less than 1 million mt. The shipping deadline is Dec. 22, and traders said the short delivery time could mean fewer tons will be available for offer.

Because the material will be arriving so late in the season, sources speculated it would most likely be used as buffer stock to build up reserves for the beginning of the next application season.

Pakistan:

While doubts remain that Makhtom Logistic International will be able to fulfill its offer of 300,000 mt at $520/mt CFR, TCP moved ahead and secured a government-to-government deal with China for the same amount.

The Pakistan government authorized TCP to issue the award to Makhtom. Many in the industry said the award was made, but now sources are doubting whether that indeed happened. The low price offered, which sources said was way off the market norms, would make it difficult for the company to perform.

In the end, the TCP talks with China have paid off. A deal for 300,000 mt from China on a government-to-government basis became public on Nov. 11. Sources said Sinochem and CNOOC were involved in the deal. Initially, the delivery period was set for November and December. Sources said the deadline has been extended to January/February 2023.

Initially, sources said TCP was pursuing both the deal with China and the Makhtom award. It is now unclear if that was the case.

Apparently, TCP remains interested in securing a government-to-government deal for 300,000 mt with China. So far, said sources, TCP is still in the early stages of the talks, which only involve representatives from the Chinese embassy in Pakistan.

Bangladesh:

According o local media reports, the government gave BCIC clearance to buy 60,000 mt of granular urea. Half of the allotment will come from Qatar under a government-to-government arrangement. The other 30,000 mt will come from domestic producer KAFCO.

Indonesia:

Traders are still trying to figure out why Persero made a big deal about the MOU with Fertiglobe to handle international sales of Indonesian urea. One trading house said they, too, were offered an MOU for the same purpose.

Some traders suggested the fanfare over the urea agreement seems aimed at gaining some publicity. The real focus, said sources, is more on obtaining green ammonia production technology for Indonesia.

Middle East:

Producers have gone quiet. Sources said they are processing their orders from the IPL/India tender and quietly calculating what they want to charge for the NFL tender. Rumors rose that $610/mt FOB was being discussed, but as is usual, no new spot business was concluded so near the closing of an Indian tender.

Traders said nothing public is expected from the producers until after the NFL prices are revealed on Nov. 15. Even then, said one trader, the producers are more likely to let the numbers speak for themselves rather than letting statements from the production side underscore the expected price shift.

After a quick run-up in prices in Egypt, trade there also went quiet. Sources said the bulk of the business last week is aimed at covering short sales into Europe. Prices are expected to come off the $625-$630/mt FOB levels achieved last week once the NFL tender numbers are released.

China:

Sources said prilled sales for lots of 6,000-12,000 mt were done at $560/mt FOB. At the same time, a granular sale was also reported at $600/mt FOB.

The transactions took place while talks were taking place with Ethiopia for a government-to-government deal of 500,000 mt. TCP in Pakistan is asking for a similar arrangement for 300,000 mt. Sources said the Ethiopians appear to have a better chance at securing a deal.

Deals with Chinese producers for 300,000 mt to Pakistan and 200,000 mt for Ethiopia were revealed on Nov. 11. The sales are government-to-government arrangements. Sources said these deals could take China out of the spot export market. With exports restricted, having these large deals in hand could allow producers to better manage the paperwork for approval and shipping of their product. It will also eat up the tonnage normally offered on the spot market to India and other buyers.

Ethiopia:

A deal was done late this week for 200,000 mt of granular urea to be shipped to Ethiopia by a Chinese producer. The arrangement appears to have been part of talks EABC held with the Chinese government and the urea producer.

The talks began when little interest was shown in a September EABC tender for 930,000 mt of granular urea. The urea was to be shipped in scheduled lots through June 2023. Sources said additional talks will continue with two of the tender participants – Fertiglobe and a Chinese trader – to secure more material.

Urea imports for January-October 2022 were reported at 546,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 14% from the 531,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Egypt with 355,000 mt and the United Arab Emirates with 100,000 mt. No imports were reported for October 2022, compared with 100,000 mt imported in October 2021.

Black Sea:

The latest estimate of the price for prilled urea out of the Black Sea is put at $505-$530/mt FOB.

Brazil:

After initial indications that prices might move up because of the NFL/India urea tender call, sources said the landed price remained stable at $580-$630/mt CFR. Earlier reports that the range would be higher were dismissed by international traders. By the end of the week, their description of the Brazilian urea market as being dead proved accurate.

Deals at the lower end of the range reportedly involved product from North Africa. As previously reported, urea imports showed a year-over-year drop of 7.5% for January-October. Demand for urea has backed off, said sources, partly because of the higher prices throughout the year. Ammonium sulfate took up the slack for the nitrogen demand of blenders. Looking into November, the vessel line-up shows a reduction of about 4% from November 2021 deliveries.

The Rondonopolis urea price tightened to $755-$780/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Demand is slow, partly because of demonstrations by farmers and other rural activists against the results of the presidential election, which are causing delays in shipments and access to supply centers. Demand is expected to pick up for the corn season application, however.

UAN

US Gulf:

NOLA UAN barge prices remained in the $550-$555/st ($17.19-$17.34/unit) FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

UAN-32 was reported at $585-$610/st ($18.28-$19.06/unit) FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the UAN-28 market pegged in a broad range at $508-$530/st ($18.14-$18.93/unit) FOB Cincinnati.

Western Cornbelt:

UAN-32 pricing remained at $585-$610/st ($18.28-$19.06/unit) FOB for limited offers in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis amid “very thin availability,” according to sources.

California:

UAN-32 prices firmed to $620-$640/st ($19.38-$20.00/unit) FOB in California, up from the previous $590-$630/st ($18.44-$19.69/unit) FOB range, with the low confirmed at Stockton and the high at West Sacramento. Rail-DEL offers were pegged at the $660/st ($20.63/unit) level or higher in the state.

Pacific Northwest:

The UAN-32 market firmed to $630-$670/st ($19.69-$20.94/unit) FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location and supplier, with the Kennewick, Wash., market pegged at the $650/st ($20.31/unit) level. Delivered pricing ranged broadly at $678-$718/st ($21.19-$22.44/unit) in early November, depending on location and supplier.

Western Canada:

The UAN-28 market in Western Canada was quoted at C$720-$735/mt (C$25.71-$26.25/unit) DEL for November-December tons, up C$5-$10/mt from last report.