All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Brazil, Market Watch, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market was unchanged at $640-$650/st FOB Missouri terminals for the last reported offers.

Brazil:

January-October imports of ammonium nitrate were down by more than half from last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. 2022 imports were reported at 628,000 mt, down from 1.3 million mt for the same period in 2021. Russia dominated supplies with 586,000 mt. The next highest supplier was the US with 28,000 mt.

October 2022 imports were reported at 93,000 mt, down 58% from the 233,000 mt imported during October 2021. Russia supplied 87,000 mt of the October shipments.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

The NOLA ammonium sulfate barge market was quoted in the $390-$395/st FOB range, down from the long-standing $400-$410/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was steady at $440-$480/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati market pegged at the $465/st FOB level.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was pegged at $430-$470/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down $10/st from last report, with the low confirmed at St. Louis and the high in Iowa.

California:

The granular ammonium sulfate market slipped to $500-$525/st FOB in California, depending on grade and location.

Pacific Northwest:

Standard grade ammonium sulfate postings in the Pacific Northwest were pegged at the $430/st FOB or DEL level in early November, up $10/st from the previous list price. After limited fill program offers down to the $410/st DEL level in late October, granular ammonium sulfate was reported up to $470-$475/st DEL in the region.

Western Canada:

Ammonium sulfate prices in Western Canada were pegged in a broad range at C$650-$690/mt DEL for November-January tons, depending on location.

China:

Sources reported ammonium sulfate sales at $215-$220/mt FOB, with an emphasis on the lower end of the range. Traders said further softness in the market is expected. The main demand for the Chinese product is coming from Brazil, but even that demand is not enough to make up for the reduced demand from other buyers.

Brazil:

Demand for ammonium sulfate remains strong. As reported earlier, amsul imports for January-October 2022 were up about 30% from last year. Even with strong demand, the landed price slipped about $10/mt from last week, to $270-$275/mt CFR.

The Rondonopolis price range edged up to $410-$440/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Blenders continue to desire amsul as a substitute for their nitrogen content instead of urea.

CF Seeks to Renegotiate Long-Term Mosaic Ammonia Contract

Ammonia, Eastern Cornbelt, News, News Briefs, Tampa

The Mosaic Co. said in a Nov. 7 Securities Exchange Commission filing that on Oct. 14 it received notice from CF Industries Holdings Inc. that it was exercising the bilateral, contractual right to end the CF-Mosaic 15-year ammonia supply agreement in its current form, effective Jan. 1, 2025.

The contract allows for either party to exercise rights on certain dates through 2032 that can result in changes to terms and conditions. Mosaic said it expects to continue to have adequate sources of supply for ammonia at competitive pricing, including from CF.

Under the supply agreement inked in 2014 and taking effect in Jan. 1, 2017 (GM June 23, 2017; June 10, 2016; March 24, 2014), Mosaic agreed to purchase 545,000-725,000 mt/y of ammonia from CF at a price to be determined by a formula based on the prevailing price of US natural gas. Mosaic supplemented the CF ammonia with its own production at Faustina, as well as imports.

Not so long ago, both natural gas and ammonia prices were low, with sources saying CF was the beneficiary of the arrangement. However in more recent times, while natural gas prices have gone up, Tampa ammonia has soared by comparison, giving the benefit to Mosaic, which has been trying to take the maximum amount of tonnage – 725,000 mt/y – under the contract.

Leading up to the contract, Mosaic weighed the possibility of building its own large ammonia plant to supply its needs (GM March 12, 2012).

DAP/MAP

Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Sellers were reportedly sold out of DAP and MAP trucks loading from Central Florida through first-half December. Posted prices on DAP trucks continued at $770/st FOB, while MAP trucks were posted at $790/st FOB, unmoved from the prior report.

In the North Florida market, MAP loaded to trucks was posted at $820/st FOB, also unchanged from one week earlier.

US Gulf:

Sources described a quiet week for the NOLA phosphate markets, noting limited movement in the 30-day trading window.

DAP barges were reportedly trading at a low of $675/st FOB, below last week’s floor of $685/st FOB, while the high end of the range slipped to $680/st FOB from last week’s $705/st FOB level.

Market players reported minimal nearby trading activity in the MAP market. Business was reported at $650/st FOB for December-loaded barges, even with the week-ago $650/st FOB low for November loadings, while price ideas at the top of the range tracked around the $665/st FOB mark, down from $700/st FOB in the prior report.

Domestic producers were reportedly sold out of barges loading through the first half of December, while offers on barges slated for full December loading were under evaluation.

Historic low water levels on the lower Mississippi River continued to limit cargo capacity, resulting in an increased focus on tons either stationed at upriver locations or currently moving on a tow. The limited freight capacity contributed to thinning warehouse supply, however, supporting prices at levels above currently available NOLA netbacks.

The nearby NOLA DAP barge market was reported at $675-$680/st FOB for the week, below last week’s $685-$705/st FOB range. Sources pegged NOLA MAP pricing at $650-$665/st FOB, also down from the $650-$700/st FOB level reported one week earlier.

US Exports:

Mosaic reported a 25,000 mt DAP cargo selling out of the Gulf during the week. The tons, destined for a single location in Latin America, were priced at $692/mt FOB, with loading slated for early December.

The company also confirmed a 50,000 mt DAP vessel shipping from either Florida or NOLA bound for Mosaic’s own distribution business in India. The vessel was expected to load in December, with freight pegged at $50/mt.

Based on reported transactions, the Gulf export phosphate market softened to $692/mt FOB for the week, down from $700/mt FOB reported previously.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP was quoted at $795-$820/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $5-$10/st from last report, with Cincinnati pricing reported in the $795-$815/st FOB range. MAP was pegged at $830-$845/st FOB, with the Cincinnati market at $835-$845/st FOB. Sources said the Cincinnati market has experienced “spot outages” of phosphates in recent weeks.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP was pegged at $795-$820/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP quoted at $815-$845/st FOB in the region, depending on location. The St. Louis market was reported at $795-$815/st for DAP and $815-$820/st FOB for MAP.

“Phosphate supply is extremely tight from St. Louis north due to the river issues,” said one regional contact. “Supply is hand-to-mouth as barges straggle into St. Louis.”

California:

MAP was unchanged at $900/st FOB or DEL in California.

Pacific Northwest:

The MAP market was steady at $870-$890/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location.

Western Canada:

MAP pricing slipped to C$1,220-$1,260/mt FOB in Western Canada, depending on location, with delivered pricing reported at C$1,235-$1,270/mt. Those levels were down from the last reported ranges of C$1,238-$1,285/mt FOB and C$1,270-$1,280/mt DEL.

“Most buyers seem to be waiting, hoping for lower prices before they step in for larger winter-fill purchases,” said one regional source.

China:

Sources said the price for DAP is hovering right around $720/mt FOB. At the same time, sources outside China are claiming the market is ready to move to $740/mt FOB. Traders in the area, however, do not think the price will reach that level.

One trader noted that the first quarter of 2023 might see bids in the $740s/mt FOB for Chinese DAP, but nothing is expected to be exported from China during that period, so the price is not relevant. The industry is bracing for the absence of Chinese phosphates into April 2023, said traders. Any material moving out of China for the next several months is expected to be cargoes already booked. No new deals are expected.

Even with the lack of Chinese phosphates on the horizon, people are still wondering if the Chinese government, which has ordered restricted exports, might change its mind if Brazil comes in with strong orders for MAP. Reports are circulating that Brazilian farmers have only ordered 50-60% of the MAP needed for the next application season.

India:

Reports are circulating of DAP sales at $720-$740/mt CFR, with some reportedly in the upper-$740s/mt CFR. The purchases are for other than Chinese product, and most DAP imports are being handled without trader involvement. The pattern started with buyers talking directly to Chinese producers. The same types of deals were later cut with Arab DAP producers.

There were reports late in the week that OCP sold 130,000 mt to India at just about $750/mt CFR. The deal appears to have been the results of talks in late October to secure major long-term contracts between the two countries. Sources earlier said the price would be determined for each cargo on a formula basis. Another cargo of 30,000 mt of DAP was also picked up from Tunisia at the same price.

Buying is now expected to ease off. Sources said the last of the DAP for this season needs to arrive in November or early December to be useful. Even with this timeframe in mind, sources said OCP/Morocco keeps leaning on Indian buyers to take more DAP and other phosphates for immediate shipments.

Brazil:

The landed price of MAP in Brazil tightened to $590-$620/mt CFR, compared with $570-$640/mt last week. Sources said the shift came on limited sales. Sources noted that this is an off-season for phosphate purchases, so the limited business is not surprising.

Rondonopolis pricing shifted slightly to $750-$780/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Farmers still have time to buy MAP for the next application season. Without a major buying rally, the farmers seem to figure they can wait a while longer before committing to large scale purchases.

TSP

Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

TSP barges continued to be heard at $640-$650/st FOB, unchanged from the prior report. Some expected values to drop to sub-$625/st FOB levels in the next round of business.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The TSP market strengthened to $780-$785/st FOB Cincinnati for limited tons due to ongoing river issues and delays in barge shipments.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market remained at $750-$760/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt.

Phosphoric Acid

California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt were unchanged at $14.00/unit rail-DEL for November.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing was steady at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for November tons, unchanged from October.

California:

November pricing for phos acid was unchanged at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in California, with MGA referenced at $14.20/unit FOB Lathrop.

Pacific Northwest:

November pricing for phos acid remained $13.50/st FOB Pocatello, Idaho, and $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest, unchanged from October.

India:

Phosphoric acid contracts for tons delivered to India were reported in the $1,100-$1,200/mt P2O5 CFR range for the fourth quarter, down from $1,715/mt CFR in the second and third quarters.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 pricing remained at $665-$675/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with pricing out of Michigan warehouses pegged at the $680/st FOB level in early November.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was quoted at the $655-$675/st FOB level in the Western Cornbelt for the last confirmed offers.

California:

The 10-34-0 market was steady at $691-$696/st FOB in California, with 11-37-0 pricing referenced at $753/st FOB El Centro.

Pacific Northwest:

10-34-0 pricing was steady at $675-$685/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, while 11-37-0 postings remained at $725/st FOB Hedges, Wash., and $705/st DEL in Idaho.

Western Canada:

10-34-0 pricing in Western Canada was reported at C$940-$965/mt DEL in early November.

Muriate of Potash

Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Potash Muriate, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA potash barge prices tightened to $530-$535/st FOB, compared with the week-ago $525-$545/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash was quoted at $630-$650/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of river locations in Illinois and the high out of inland warehouses in Ohio. The Cincinnati potash market was pegged at the $635/st FOB level at midweek.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash pricing fell to $610-$640/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market reported in the $610-$630/st FOB range. The Catoosa/Inola potash market dropped to $610-$620/st FOB, down $5-$10/st from last week, while the St. Paul market slipped to $635-$640/st FOB.

California:

The potash market in California was reported at $870-$890/st FOB, depending on grade and location. Delivered tons were pegged at $875-$895/st in the state.

Pacific Northwest:

Potash pricing slipped to a broad $815-$865/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, depending on grade and supplier, with delivered tons pegged at $808-$872/st in early November. The last reference prices from Intrepid FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, included $850/st for 60% white standard and $855/st for 60% white granular.

Western Canada:

Sources quoted potash pricing at C$940-$990/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines for truck tons, depending on grade and supplier, down from C$990-$1,020/mt FOB in mid-October.

India/China:

Acknowledging that the domestic price for potash in China has softened, Nutrien Ltd. President and CEO Ken Seitz took a bullish stance at a company earnings call on Nov. 3, telling analysts the domestic price in China “doesn’t dictate” the contract settlement level with international suppliers.

“The negotiation is going to be based on what we are seeing in the global market, and this is a supply and demand driven market, and you will not find anywhere, whether it’s a spot market in Brazil or in North America, that is below the current contract price of $590/mt,” he said, adding that for standard grade potash in Southeast Asia, current prices are “well above” that level.

Seitz also pointed out that the suppliers who can negotiate “a meaningful quantity” under contract currently are “very few and far between,” adding that Canpotex and maybe one or two other suppliers fall into this category.

He believes buyers in India, where inventories are at extremely low levels, will have to step in to renew their annual potash contract and get product into the country before the spring planting season.

Nutrien sees India’s potash imports in calendar 2022 at 2.3-2.7 million mt. While Seitz doesn’t anticipate a huge increase in India’s potash consumption next year, he believes the low inventories are supportive of an increase in shipments to the country in 2023.

Seitz said China also needs to get potash into the country under a new contract before the start of its spring planting season. Nutrien sees China’s potash deliveries in 2022 at 13.5-14.5 million mt, down from 2021’s estimated 14-15 million mt.

Nutrien cited the current discounted China potash contract price relative to global spot markets as driving the expected reduced shipments in 2022. It added that China’s access to Russian and Belarusian potash by rail has offset reductions in seaborne potash trade this year.

Meanwhile, India is reported to be looking to strike a deal with Uralkali for the supply of 1 million mt of potash, India’s Economic Times reported, citing an unnamed senior official in India’s Department of Fertilizers.

Brazil:

The landed MOP price softened to $550-$590/mt CFR, with the lower end of the range reserved for large-scale purchases. Imports remain higher than the past even as demand has leveled off.

The Rondonopolis price range widened to $685-$760/mt FOB ex-warehouse as buyers look to the softer international market. The lower price seems to be offered only to those looking to take a long forward position, which few are anxious to do. The higher price in Rondonopolis seems to be reserved for the people needing prompt delivery.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

Sources reported a quiet domestic sulfur market during the week. Fundamentals remained in a balanced-to-firm state, players indicated, with rising offshore values representing an attractive target for both US Gulf and Alberta producers that have prilling and export capacity.

The fourth-quarter contract price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa was $90/lt CFR, down $262/lt from the prior period’s $352/lt CFR level.

Operable refining capacity moved higher for the week ending Nov. 4, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Refinery utilization was noted at 92.1% of capacity for the period, up from the prior week’s 90.6% and above both the year-ago 86.7% and the 85.9% five-year average.

Daily crude inputs were also higher, moving above the 16 million barrel/d mark for the first time since the week ending Sept. 16. Inputs for the period were noted at an average 16.089 million barrels/d, a 247,000 barrel/d increase from 15.842 million barrels/d published previously.

US Gulf:

Motiva Ent. on Nov. 8 began work to restart the second largest VPS-4 crude distillation unit at the company’s Port Arthur, Texas, refinery, Reuters reported, as well as a number of other units. Multiple components of the 626,000 barrel/d facility had been reported offline since Sept. 27 due to planned maintenance.

The 210,000 barrel/d CDU at the facility successfully returned to operation late on Nov. 8, according to Genscape, as did the 100,000 barrel/d VPS-4 vacuum distillation unit. Motiva is the nation’s largest refinery.

Price ideas in the US Gulf sulfur market were unchanged from the week-ago $150-$155/mt FOB.

Brazil:

Last-done at Brazil continued to be heard in the $185-$190/mt CFR range, unmoved from the prior report. Fourth-quarter contracts fell in the $119-$138/mt CFR range.

Vancouver:

Recent Vancouver values were reported at $145-$150/mt FOB, steady from the prior report.

Alberta:

Molten and prilled sulfur cargoes loading from Alberta were indicated netting back (-)25-$80/mt FOB to sellers, unchanged from the prior report.

West Coast:

West Coast solid sulfur pricing was indicated even with Vancouver at $145-$150/mt FOB, unchanged from last week. Players quoted fourth-quarter molten sulfur contracts at $75-$79/lt FOB, falling from $370-$385/lt FOB in the prior period.

China:

Last-done China spot values were called $180-$185/mt CFR, unchanged from the previous week.

ADNOC:

ADNOC solid sulfur was heard at $140/mt FOB Ruwais for November loading. The market was previously noted at $103/mt FOB, a $37/mt difference.

Qatar:

November prill offers from Muntajat were reported at $149/mt FOB Ras Laffan, a $45/mt increase from $104/mt FOB in October.