All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, Brazil, Market Watch, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market was unchanged at $640-$650/st FOB Missouri terminals in early October.

Brazil:

The restrictions imposed on ammonium nitrate exports by the Russian government continue to hit Brazil. Imports for January-September were reported at 534,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 52% from the 1.1 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers in the first three quarters were Russia with 498,000 mt, the US with 22,000, and the Netherlands with 10,000 mt.

September 2022 imports were reported at 146,800 mt, down from the 261,000 mt imported during September 2021. Almost all the tonnage – 146,700 mt – came from Russia, with the US sending 22,000 mt for its first shipments in three years.

Third-quarter imports of ammonium nitrate were reported at 366,000 mt, down from the 575,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. Russia sent 342,000 mt of the total.

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, China, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA ammonium sulfate barges remained in the $400-$410/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The granular ammonium sulfate market was steady at $460-$480/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the Cincinnati market quoted in the $465-$480/st FOB range. Michigan sources pegged the granular market at the $494/st FOB level on a spot basis.

Western Cornbelt:

Granular ammonium sulfate pricing was quoted at $445-$460/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis.

Northern Plains:

Granular ammonium sulfate was pegged at $460-$475/st FOB St. Paul and $495/st FOB Sioux City, Iowa, while delivered tons remained at $450-$465/st in the North Dakota market.

Northeast:

Delivered granular ammonium pricing in the Northeast remained at $490-$515/st in early October. Terminal prices were steady at $455-$485/st FOB in the region, depending on location.

Eastern Canada:

Ammonium sulfate fill pricing strengthened to C$755-$825/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up from the last confirmed C$685-$790/mt FOB range.

China:

Sources described the market as soft but stable. Prices remained in the $230s/mt FOB for caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate, while compacted granular was reported in the $260/mt FOB range. Part of the lull in the market was attributed to the holiday break for the Oct. 1 National Day celebrations.

Turkey:

Imports of ammonium sulfate were reported at 732,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 20% from the 608,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. China was the main supplier with 597,000 mt, followed by Belgium with 100,000 mt.

August 2022 imports were reported at 46 mt, down dramatically from the 29,000 mt imported during August 2021.

Brazil:

Ammonium sulfate prices in Brazil softened to $280-$290/mt CFR. Reports circulated that bids at $270/mt CFR were made for material still on vessels heading to Brazil.

Rondonopolis is reported at $385-$430/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said buyers are on the sidelines while they wait to see how the weather affects their crops.

Ammonium sulfate imports for January-September 2022 were reported at 3.1 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 23% from the 2.5 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main supplier was China with 2.7 million mt, followed by Belgium with 152,000 mt, and the US with 113,000 mt.

September 2022 imports were reported at 548,000 mt, up 66% from the 330,000 mt imported during September 2021, with 519,000 mt of this year’s total coming from China.

Third-quarter imports were pegged at 1.1 million mt, up from the 831,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

Central Florida DAP truck postings were unchanged at $770/st FOB for the week. Truck-loaded MAP values were flat at $790/st FOB, also steady from the previous week. MAP trucks loading from North Florida continued to be heard at $820/st FOB.

US Gulf:

Despite removing an estimated 200,000-250,000 mt of phosphate from third- and fourth-quarter production slates, Hurricane Ian’s Sept. 28 landfall along the west coast of Florida was reported to minimally impact the NOLA barge market during the week. Repairs to damaged production facilities in the state were expected to require 1-2 weeks to complete.

Players noted offers unchanged from the week-ago low at $730/st FOB on Sept. 30, although values firmed to a $740/st FOB floor by Oct. 5. A rumored $715/st FOB transaction on Oct. 6 was believed by most sources to be a paper trade.

The top of the NOLA DAP range was pegged at $750/st FOB for domestically-produced material, below the week-ago $755/st FOB top. Posted offers from domestic producers were adjusted to $760/st FOB, falling from the prior $765/st FOB offer.

Most reported the weekly MAP low at $747/st FOB, a decline from the week-ago $755/st FOB floor. Russian tons reported trading on Oct. 3-5 at $730/st FOB were expected to load in November. Sources generally called the top of the market around $765/st FOB. Post-hurricane domestic producer offers softened to $775/st FOB from the last-reported $785/st FOB level.

The nearby NOLA DAP barge market was reported in a wide $730-$750/st FOB range for the week, falling from $730-$755/st FOB the week before. MAP barges were heard at $747-$765/st FOB for October, below the $755-$765/st FOB range posted previously.

US Exports:

Sources described a quiet export market, with sellers reportedly “working through the availability impacts of Hurricane Ian” during the week. Recent reported trades included DAP and MAP cargoes priced in the $750-$760/mt FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP prices slipped to $800-$810/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $5/st from the prior week. MAP was quoted at $815-$835/st FOB in early October, up slightly at the high end of the range due to low water issues on the river system that have impacted barge movement. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $800-$810/st FOB for DAP and $815-$830/st FOB for MAP.

Michigan sources reported MAP pricing at the $854/st FOB level on a spot basis.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing was pegged at $790-$810/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP reported in the $805-$820/st FOB range, depending on location. The St. Louis market was pegged at $790-$800/st for DAP and $805-$815/st FOB for MAP.

Northern Plains:

DAP pricing was unchanged at $800-$810/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP reported at the $820/st FOB level at that location. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota remained at the $890/st level for the last fill offers.

Northeast:

MAP pricing in the Northeast was pegged at $850/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, and $865/st FOB Fairless Hills. DAP was reported at $825/st FOB East Liverpool in early October.

Eastern Canada:

MAP pricing in Eastern Canada slipped to C$1,250-$1,280/mt FOB in early October. The DAP market at Montreal was reported at the C$1,240/mt FOB level.

China:

No movement was reported on pricing or product. Sources said talks between DAP producers and offshore buyers were limited because of the week-long Chinese National Day celebrations.

India:

Sources pegged the market at $720-$750/mt CFR, with buyers now bidding at $680-$690/mt CFR. Some industry watchers questioned if the buyers will be successful in lowering the price that much.

The recent purchases of phos acid in the $1,100-$1,200/mt CFR range, combined with the push for a lower price with OCP, has some industry watchers speculating that India may soon be stepping up its DAP production. The lower input costs could make domestic production less expensive than the imports, said one trader.

India has moved aggressively to import DAP this year because phos acid prices were high at $1,700/mt CFR, with OCP/Morocco eyeing $2,000/mt CFR. The cost of the acid would have made domestic production costs prohibitive and outside the subsidy boundaries.

Aggressive negotiations when prices were softening brought in a substantial amount of DAP, thereby negating the need for more acid. Now, with acid producers willing to soften their pricing ideas or lose out completely, DAP production in India may once again become financially viable.

Brazil:

An oversupply of MAP in Brazil has forced some trading houses to ship cargoes to the US and Europe. Sources said in most of these cases, the traders were hit with substantial losses. The issue was the rising costs of storing the MAP for an undetermined time, along with competition from others holding large quantities.

The softer price at the ports was reported at $670-$680/mt CFR. The lack of buying comes from farmers calculating the fertilizer/grain price ratio. So far, a number of farmers have reportedly said they are ready to skip a season of phosphate purchases. Experts said this is possible without causing any major loss in crop output.

Rondonopolis is posted at $795-$830/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The same lack of interest at the ports is affecting sellers inland.

Imports of MAP for January-September 2022 were reported at 3.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down slightly from the 3.6 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Russia supplied just under half of the tonnage at 1.5 million mt. Morocco followed with 882,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia with 556,000 mt.

September 2022 imports were divided among five suppliers. Total imports for September were reported at 241,000 mt, a drop of 61% from the 622,000 mt imported during September 2021.

Source Country September imports % Of Import Market
Saudi Arabia 67,225 27.86
Russia 59,429 24.63
Morocco 57,899 24.00
China 29,617 12.28
US 24,000 9.95

Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 1.2 million mt, down about 24% from the 1.6 million mt imported during the July-September 2021 period.

Phosphoric Acid

Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

October phos acid postings in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL, unchanged from September.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid prices remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Western Cornbelt for October tons.

Northern Plains:

Phos acid pricing for October shipments remained at $14.00/unit rail-DEL in the Northern Plains, unchanged from September.

India:

Widespread price pressure in the international phosphate markets reportedly pushed fourth-quarter phosphoric values lower at India. Sources said Indian buyers were able to secure some quantities of phos acid from suppliers in Senegal and Jordan at $1,100-$1,200/mt CFR for the fourth quarter.

The success in these deals, said one trader, prompted buyers to turn to the largest acid supplier, OCP/Morocco. Next-round bidding subsequently softened to $1,000-$1,100/mt P2O5 CFR, a 42% drop from the third-quarter price of $1,715/mt CFR

Madras Fertilizers Ltd. on Sept. 30 announced the signing of a MoU to purchase 30,000 mt/y of phos acid from Agrifields DMCC (Dubai), for a three year period.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

10-34-0 pricing was steady at $665-$675/st FOB for the last confirmed offers in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

10-34-0 was pegged at the $660-$670/st FOB level in the Western Cornbelt in early October.

Northern Plains:

10-34-0 offers were quoted at $670-$675/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with delivered pricing pegged at $700-$710/st DEL in central North Dakota.

Northeast:

10-34-0 prices in New York were quoted at $720/st FOB, unchanged from last report.

Muriate of Potash

Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northeast, Northern Plains, Potash Muriate, Sri Lanka, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

US Gulf:

NOLA potash barges continued to drift lower. The market was reported at $565-$580/st FOB, with an average slightly below the week-ago $574-$575/st FOB range.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Potash pricing sunk to $670-$690/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down another $15-$25/st, with the lower end of the range confirmed at Cincinnati. Pricing out of Michigan warehouses fell in the $700-$734/st FOB range in early October.

Western Cornbelt:

Potash pricing was quoted at $660-$690/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, reflecting another drop from the previous week, with the St. Louis market pegged in the $660-$675/st FOB range. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., potash market was reported in the $675-$680/st FOB range in early October.

Northern Plains:

Sources quoted potash pricing at $690-$700/st FOB and $730/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines, based on current exchange rates, were reported at $648-$658/st after netbacks, depending on grade and destination.

Northeast:

The latest potash offers in the Northeast were confirmed at $705/st FOB East Liverpool and $735/st FOB Fairless Hills, with rail-DEL tons pegged at the $730/st level in the Pennsylvania market.

Eastern Canada:

The potash market in Eastern Canada remained in the C$1,056-$1,110/mt range FOB warehouses, unchanged from last report.

Sri Lanka:

Singapore-based Ameropa Asia (Pvt) Ltd. has been awarded the contract to supply standard potash for Sri Lanka’s 2022/23 Maha cultivation season, local media reported. The so-called Maha season falls during the “Northeast monsoon” from September to March in the following year.

Most reports, including Economy Next, estimated the volume to be supplied under the contract at 50,000 mt, although others indicated a total of 40,000 mt. Neither the origin of the potash nor the price details have been reported.

The purchase is being financed by an Asian Development Bank credit of $50 million, according to Economy Next, citing Cabinet spokesperson Minister Bandula Gunawardana. Sri Lanka’s Cabinet approved the award on Oct. 4.

Brazil:

Suppliers said the current price of MOP at $650/mt CFR is the floor. However, reports quickly circulated of a deal inside the country showing a netback to the ports of $570/mt CFR.

Industry watchers are careful about using calculations from the inland to set port prices because of the numerous variable costs that go into getting product from port to local distribution center. As a result, many have discounted the $570/mt CFR price.

Sources were also careful to point out that even though $650/mt CFR does seem a low price, so far only the holders of the product are claiming that is as far down as the price will go.

The battle over prices reportedly has continued. Reportedly some buyers are bidding below the $650/mt CFR mark. At the same time, suppliers are pushing back and calling for higher prices.

A softer price of $765-$810/mt FOB ex-warehouse is seen by industry watchers as an indication of continued lack of interest by end users.

Imports of MOP for January-September 2022 were reported at 10.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 13% from the 9 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Canada with 3.9 million mt, Russia with 2.6 million mt, and Germany with 1 million mt dominated the sales into Brazil.

September 2022 imports were down to 757,000 mt from the 1.2 million mt imported during September 2021. Canada controlled 58% of the import market with 442,000 mt, followed by Russia with 93,000 mt for 12% of the market. Israel supplied 89,000 mt, for another 12% of the import market.

Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 3.3 million mt, down 18% from the 4 million mt imported during the same period in 2021.

Sulfur

ADNOC - Abu Dhabi, Alberta, Brazil, China, Market Watch, Qatar, Sulfur, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Vancouver, West Coast

Tampa:

Negotiations for the fourth-quarter contract price of molten sulfur delivered to Tampa resumed during the week following a pause reported seven days earlier in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian.

Prior to the storm, sources speculated on updated contract values landing in the $90-$105/lt CFR range, below the third-quarter’s $352/lt CFR deal. Some quoted updated contract expectations in the $90-$93/lt CFR range on Oct. 6. Players reported a strong chance of talks wrapping before the weekend, although no updated contracts were reported on Oct. 6.

Refinery operations in the US increased for the week ending Sept. 30, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Refiners were noted running at a combined 91.3% of capacity for the period, a 0.7-point increase from the last reported 90.6% rate, and also topping both the year-ago 89.6% and the 87.0% five-year average.

Crude inputs also moved up, the EIA reported, to an average 15.961 million barrels/d, a 210,000 barrel/d increase from the previous week’s 15.751 million barrels/d rate.

US Gulf:

Price ideas for the US Gulf sulfur market continued to be heard in the $90-$110/mt FOB range, unchanged from the prior report.

Brazil:

Brazil spot pricing was seen moving higher in recent trading. Spot trades were reported in the $138-$158/mt CFR range, rising from $120-$140/mt CFR in the prior report.

Fourth-quarter contracts were said to conclude in a wide $119-$138/mt CFR range. Buyers were described foregoing purchase contracts in the third quarter due to market instability.

Vancouver:

Recent Vancouver values continued to hold in the $95-$100/mt FOB range, unmoved from one week earlier.

Alberta:

Alberta sulfur netbacks were indicated at $25-$282/mt FOB for the week.

West Coast:

Pricing for West Coast solid sulfur continued at $95-$100/mt FOB, unchanged from the prior report. West Coast molten sulfur contracts were reported at $370-$385/lt FOB for the third quarter.

China:

No changes were heard for the China import market, leaving last-done in the $135-$140/mt CFR range.

ADNOC:

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. offers were heard at $103/mt FOB Ruwais for October loading, up $11/mt from $92/mt FOB in the prior month.

Qatar:

Muntajat prills were reported at $104/mt FOB Ras Laffan for. Offers were noted at $89/mt FOB in September, a $15/mt difference.

Sulfuric Acid

Brazil, Gulf Coast, Market Watch, Midwest, Sulfuric Acid, U.S. Gulf, West Coast

US Gulf:

Price ideas for sulfuric acid cargoes imported to the US Gulf were unchanged in the $120-$140/mt CFR range.

Gulf Coast:

Material delivered by rail to Gulf Coast locations fell in the $195-$280/st DEL range for 2022 contracts.

Midwest:

Midwest market values were noted even with the Gulf Coast at $195-$280/st DEL for annual agreements.

West Coast:

Full-year agreements for delivery to the West Coast were heard at $185-$270/st DEL.

Brazil:

With no changes reported for the week, Brazil spot vessel price ideas continued at the week-ago $130-$150/mt CFR level.

Ammonium Thiosulfate

Amthio, Eastern Canada, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Northern Plains, Specialty, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing was reported in a broad range at $400-$450/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonium thiosulfate pricing in the Western Cornbelt remained at $350-$400/st FOB in early October, depending on location and supplier.

Northern Plains:

The ammonium thiosulfate market remained at $455/st FOB in central North Dakota at mid-month.

Eastern Canada:

The ammonium thiosulfate market in Eastern Canada was down slightly at C$640-$655/mt FOB.