All posts by mickeybarb@charter.net

Ammonia

Ammonia, Black Sea, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Middle East, North Africa, Northwestern Europe, Pacific N.W., Southeast Asia, Tampa, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf/Tampa:

The October price stands at $665/mt CFR, though with skyrocketing inland prices and European outages, the price will be under pressure to move up in November.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Although sources speculated that the last actual ammonia spot business was likely concluded at the $925-$950/st FOB level in the Eastern Cornbelt, producer postings reportedly jumped to $1,090-$1,100/st FOB for new offers during the week, with the high reported at Henry, Ill., Lima, Ohio, and Huntington, Ind.

The new Lima and Henry prices reflected a jump of $200-$210/st from the last postings of $890-$900/st FOB in early October. While not officially out with new published prices, CF was reportedly “taking bids” at similar levels at midweek.

“If you haven’t got yourself covered for fall, you are in a bad spot,” commented one regional source regarding fall ammonia needs. “Retail pricing continues to significantly lag replacement costs. Really, it is nowhere close.”

Western Cornbelt:

Ammonia prices continued to surge higher in the region. Koch on Oct. 12 raised its ammonia postings to $1,085/st FOB Beatrice, Neb.; $1,090/st FOB Greenwood, Neb., and Sergeant Bluff, Iowa; $1,100/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Fort Dodge, Creston, and Washington; and $1,110/st FOB Marshalltown, Iowa. Those levels were up $200/st from the company’s Oct. 7 postings and up $300/st from late September pricing levels.

In the Northern Plains, ammonia was quoted in a broad range at $1,000-$1,125/st FOB for the week, with the high reflecting Koch’s new reference price FOB Vernon Center, Minn. Sources reported several producers either sold out in North Dakota or close to it by midweek.

In the Southern Plains, sources said ammonia pricing FOB Enid, Okla., firmed to $1,000/st FOB from the prior week’s $840-$850/st FOB level. The low end of the range was reported at $800/st FOB Pryor, Okla., early in the week, but sources speculated that this offer was quickly off the table.

California:

The ammonia market in California remained at $710/st DEL for anhydrous and $187/st FOB for aqua.

Pacific Northwest:

While the last official postings were reported at $900/st truck-DEL for anhydrous and $220/st FOB for aqua ammonia in the Pacific Northwest, sources reported a “very limited supply of new ammonia tons” available in the region. As a result, reports of spotty offers for rail-DEL ammonia surged to as high as $1,100-$1,156/st for November tons as the week progressed, with no pricing available on an FOB basis out of regional terminals.

There were reports as well of limited aqua prices “all over the map” as the week progressed, with new offers reportedly climbing to as high as $300/st FOB.

Western Canada:

Ammonia pricing in Western Canada was quoted at C$1,300-$1,310/mt DEL for limited new offers, up from C$1,050-$1,090/mt DEL at last report.

Black Sea:

Sources reported no new spot business in the area, largely because all Ukraine plants are shut down due to the high price of natural gas. Even the Russian supply of ammonia into the area is limited. Sources said the only tons moving are those under long-term, formula-based deals. The lack of spot deals keeps the public price at $710/mt FOB.

Russian ammonia exports for January-August of 2021 totaled 2.89 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up just slightly from 2.88 million mt during the same period last year. August exports for 2021 were down 16.5 percent, to 266,000 mt from 318,000 mt in August 2020.

Turkey’s ammonia imports were also down. January-August 2021 imports were reported at 569,000 mt, down 34 percent from the 864,000 mt imported during the same period last year.August imports by Turkey for this year were reported at 68,000 mt, down 24 percent from 90,000 mt in August 2020.

Middle East:

Arab Gulf ammonia supplies remain tight. Sources said traders were looking all this week for an extra cargo or two, and always came up empty handed. The lack of any spot deals keeps the price at $620-$630/mt FOB. Sources said, however, that any discussion of prices is well beyond that level.

North Africa:

Ammonia and phosphate traders are keeping a close eye on Morocco. Reportedly, the stockpiles at the OCP phosphate operations are rapidly shrinking. However, the phosphate giant refuses to discuss its supply status publicly.

Sources said the easiest way to determine if the secretive OCP is stepping up its phosphate production is by looking to see if it is buying more inputs such as ammonia or sulfur. So far, said sources, the ammonia flow to Morocco has not changed dramatically. However, word is seeping out that this may soon change because of the reported drop in inventory.

New problems have apparently crept up in the Arzew facility in Algeria, cutting off production for an unspecified amount of time.

Northwest Europe:

The plant closures in Europe because of high natural gas prices continue to pinch the market. Sources said supplies are tight, leading to expectations of higher prices.

No new sales were closed this week to move the price from the $800-$810/mt C&F deals achieved earlier in the month. However, sources said it will only be a matter of time before the price moves up.

There has been no movement in Baltic pricing. Sources said some deals remain based on formulas and some on the lower price for October. Talks for November pricing reportedly will begin in the $720s/mt FOB and go up from there.

Southeast Asia:

Reportedly, Petronas sold a cargo of 13,000 mt to Trammo this week. Sources said this and other deals are being made, but everyone is keeping quiet about the pricing.

Indonesia is reportedly also short of ammonia and is looking for tons. Gresik is the latest company to let people know it wants to buy product. Sources said supplies are so tight, however, that it might be difficult for the company to get what it needs.

Urea

Black Sea, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Middle East, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, Urea, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA granular urea prices continued to strengthen, though not at the same pace as the week-ago surge. New trades were called $685-$710/st FOB, up from the week-ago $665-$700/st FOB. December was heard at $696/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

Urea prices firmed to $740-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location, with the lower end of the range confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio. In the Northeast, urea was up $20/st from last week, to $750/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., for October-November shipment.

Western Cornbelt:

Urea prices remained in the $720-$750/st FOB range in the region, with the low reported at St. Louis, Mo., and the high for the last offers at Port Neal, Iowa. The market FOB St. Paul, Minn., was steady at $750-$770/st FOB, with delivered offers pegged in the $810-$830/st range in North Dakota.

California:

Urea prices reportedly jumped to $800/st FOB Stockton for bulk tons and $860/st FOB for bags, up $40/st or more from late the previous week and a full $200/st higher than late September levels. Sources continued to report no current delivered offers in the state. “Most suppliers don’t post and just have ‘ask’,” said one contact.

Pacific Northwest:

The urea market was quoted at $800/st FOB Rivergate, Ore, and $805/st FOB Aurora, Ore., up $200/st or more from late-September levels. Sources quoted rail-DEL urea offers at $848-$855/st in the region at midweek.

Western Canada:

Urea prices jumped to C$1,025-$1,055/mt FOB and C$1,070-$1,100/mt DEL in Western Canada, depending on location and time of shipment, up another C$45/mt or more from the prior week and a full C$175-$205/mt above pricing levels in late September.

China:

New rules for exporting all fertilizers except ammonium sulfate effectively take China out of the export business. The move also has taken away any external market price points for Chinese urea. Sources said for now, the price remains in the $620s/mt FOB until exports are once again allowed.

Major urea-exporting ports in the north were informed earlier this week that only product that clears customs by Oct. 15 will be allowed to be shipped out. As the week progressed, other ports and commodities were added to the list. As of Oct. 14, the list included 29 fertilizer products.

International traders said the tonnage booked by RCF/India for its Oct. 1 tender appears to be in the clear for export. Sources said vessels have been nominated for just about all the material booked, and the remaining tonnage is expected to clear customs by the Oct. 15 deadline.

International traders said the rules are opaque and allow for a great deal of flexibility, based on the political desires of local and national government leaders.

International sources said before any urea can be sent to a port, the factory must get permission from local authorities, with the decision likely based on the current price and availability of urea in their area. Whether the decision will be based on actual supply and demand numbers or on the political concerns of those leaders is not clear, said one trader. The result is that it will be virtually impossible for international traders to combine orders from different factories to one large vessel.

One source said the move makes it difficult for anyone to declare a force majeure if committed tons are held back. Rather than making an outright ban on exports, the central government has left it to the local officials to engage in activities that could forestall exports. For example, a factory looking to bypass the rules may find it difficult to obtain the necessary railcars to ship the product to a port. In other situations, plants may find their energy allocations have been reduced, forcing them to lower production or even shut down.

Everyone is watching the situation closely and hoping to learn more details as the policy is implemented. Until things clear up or the policy is reversed, sources said China is out of the urea export business until well into the first quarter of 2022, at least.

India:

The Chinese announcement to limit exports could have a dramatic impact on India’s future urea purchasing. Sources said any upcoming tender will have to depend on material from the Arab Gulf, with some assistance from Indonesia. Unfortunately for the Indians, sources said these suppliers will not be able to meet the needs of the buyers.

The limited tons available in future tenders could also mean higher prices. Sources said the Indian government has apparently recognized that prices will be going higher. A cabinet meeting this week approved an additional US$3.8 billion in subsidies for the current fiscal year. The increase is designed to deal with higher prices for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

The additional funds will be necessary as urea prices keep rising. The subsidized maximum price for urea is currently at US$76.67/mt, against the latest imported price from the Oct. 1 RCF tender of $665/mt CFR. Besides paying for the urea, the government must also provide for the difference between the imported price and what farmers pay. Sources said any tenders called this year should all show even higher prices.

International traders said they expect another tender to be called any day. Reportedly, just about all the tons booked under the Oct. 1 tender have vessels nominated. In the past, RCF has moved to call a new tender once it was sure none of the tons committed in a previous tender would be withdrawn and offered into a follow-up tender.

Vessel nominations for tons awarded in RCF Oct. 1 urea tender
Awarded Company Origin Vessel Quantity (mt) Discharge Port
Amber China Darya Gayatri 65,000 Krishnapatnam
Ameropa China Athena 50,000 Kakinada
China Aepoas 50,000 Kakinada
    60,000 Dhamra
Koch China Aquavita 65,000 Gangavaram
Dreymoor China Ocean Prince 62,000 Kakinada
Medallion     45,000 Gangavaram
Midgulf China Western Singapore 50,000 Gangavaram
China BK Alice 50,000 Krishnapatnam
Samsung China Sea Rider 50,000 Kakinada
    45,000 Gangavaram
Swiss Singapore China Beks Cenk 45,000 Karaikal
    45,000 Karaikal
Transglobe China Seapower I 47,500 Krishnapatnam

International traders said the tightness of the urea market should lead to a series of government-to-government meetings about urea supplies. One trader noted that in the past, when prices moved dramatically higher, the Indian government would send high-level delegations to fertilizer producing countries looking for some sort of government-to-government deal.

Already there is talk that a delegation may be heading to Oman to put pressure on the Indian-Omani joint-venture company OMIFCO. The old contract between OMIFCO and Indian buyers provided for deep discounts on the plant’s output. When a new contract could not be reached, OMIFCO began selling its product around the world.

Sources said the current idea is to get OMIFCO to agree to supply some discounted material for November and December shipments.

Middle East:

Urea prices remain in the low-$700s/mt FOB, based on business done just after the RCF tender closed. Sources said the lack of any new spot business this week and in the near future could mean this price holds. However, discussion of new prices is already running closer to $800/mt FOB.

Traders said producers are currently offering limited tons for late November shipment at $780/mt FOB and up. So far, no one is taking up those offers.

Sources reported a brief pause in price increases after India rejected any tons from the Arab Gulf. The tons set aside for the Indian tender were quickly offered to buyers in Latin America and North America at netbacks that prevented a crash in pricing. Those tons are now all booked, leaving little available for future sales.

When the next Indian tender occurs, the Arab Gulf suppliers are expected to play a major role in the offers. With China effectively out of the export market, the Arab Gulf remains the only place that can provide large quantities in one go. Even then, said one trader, the amount will not be enough to satisfy India’s needs.

Egyptian producers seemed to have taken the week off. No new sales were reported out of Egypt, leaving the October-November price at $735-$752/mt FOB and December loadings at $820/mt FOB.

More deals are expected as more European plants shut down due to high natural gas prices. Sources said while traders are hesitant to buy too far in advance from the Arab Gulf for unknown buyers, Egyptian tons will find ready buyers in Europe.

Black Sea:

Because of high natural gas prices, the Yuzhnyy export market is essentially closed. Sources said what limited urea tons are available are under contract, leaving no spot tons to assess new market prices.

The Turkish government has banned all exports of fertilizers. Sources said the international market prices of urea and other fertilizers were getting too high, encouraging local producers to try to sell their products outside the country. The move to ban exports was specifically targeted to help build up supplies in the domestic market.

Russian urea exports for January-August 2021 were reported at 4.7 million mt, showing only a minor 0.2 percent increase from the same period in 2020. August 2021 exports were up 44 percent, however, to 805,000 mt from 559,000 mt in August 2020.

Turkish imports of urea for January-August of this year were reported at 1.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 8.8 percent from the 1.9 million mt imported during the same period in 2020.

The main suppliers into Turkey were Oman at 912,000 mt, Egypt at 416,000 mt, Turkmenistan at 197,000 mt, and Iran at 152,000 mt. Iranian imports showed a dramatic drop from 346,0000 mt in January-August 2020.

August imports into Turkey were up 23 percent, to 223,000 mt from 181,000 mt in August 2020. The single largest supplier was Oman with 150,000 mt.

Brazil:

Brazilian buyers and sellers reacted to early reports that China would be restricting urea exports by moving up the price into Paranagua. Sources reported deals done this week at $800-$830/mt CFR.

The price in Rondonopolis moved up dramatically to $900-$973/mt FOB ex-warehouse. While the move was not unexpected, sources were still stunned by the rapid nature of the steady price increases.

UAN

California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., U.S. Gulf, UAN, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

Most players quoted the NOLA barge market firmly at $500/st ($15.63/unit) FOB, up from the most recent $425-$435/st ($13.28-$13.59/unit) FOB range. Sources had anticipated an increase, previously predicting at $485-$500/st.

Nutrien announced early in the week that it had new sales of 50,000 st of UAN to several buyers for shipment from October 2021 through March 2022 at an average NOLA netback at $500/st. Nutrien said at the time it was pausing on new offers for this period to assess the state of the market.

Eastern Cornbelt:

What little UAN-32 tons that were being offered out of regional terminals were reported in the $565-$575/st ($17.66-$17.97/unit) FOB range during the week, up from $480-$500/st FOB the week before. UAN-28 pricing at Cincinnati was pegged at $445/st ($15.89/unit) for prompt tons, up $30/st from the prior week, and up to $525-$530/st ($18.75-$18.93/unit) FOB for spring prepay offers.

In the Northeast, UAN-32 at Fairless Hills was up $10/st from last week, to $505/st ($15.78/unit) FOB for October tons.

Western Cornbelt:

Limited UAN-32 pricing offers in the Western Cornbelt reportedly ranged from $510-$555/st ($15.94-$17.34/unit) FOB, depending on location and time of the week. “Very little if any rail is being offered, and thus inland terminals are in a holding pattern,” said one source.

California:

The UAN-32 market was quoted at a firm $520-$525/st ($16.25-$16.41/unit) FOB California terminals early in the week, up $75-$90/st from late September. By the end of the week, however, some suppliers had reportedly reposted to $620/st ($19.38/unit) FOB Stockton for contracts and $640/st ($20.00/unit) FOB for spot tons.

Pacific Northwest:

UAN-32 pricing was quoted at $585/st ($18.28/unit) FOB Kennewick, Wash., for confirmed business during the week, up some $180-$185/st from late September, with reports from some sources that new offers would edge up to $600/st ($18.75/unit) FOB as the week progressed. No current rail-DEL prices were reported in the region.

Western Canada:

UAN-28 pricing firmed to C$680/mt (C$24.29/unit) DEL in the region as the week progressed, up from the prior week’s high of C$640/mt (C$22.86/unit) DEL. Those levels were up significantly from the C$450-$485/mt (C$16.07-$17.32/unit) DEL range reported in late September.

Ammonium Nitrate

Ammonium Nitrate, France, Market Watch, Western Cornbelt

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium nitrate market remained at $440-$450/st FOB in Missouri and $455/st rail-DEL in the Midwest for the last reported offers.

France:

Supplies of both ammonium nitrate and CAN remain extremely tight across Europe, as most producers in the region have limited production amid skyrocketing natural gas prices.

Yara on Oct. 11 announced its list price for December deliveries of AN 33.5 (YaraBelaExtran33.5) in France, with the price set at €755/mt bulk CPT. This is an increase of €165/mt over its last November delivery posting, announced last week (GM Oct. 8, p. 8).

Ammonium Sulfate

Ammonium Sulfate, Brazil, California, China, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Turkey, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA ammonium sulfate barges were put in the $410-$415/st FOB range, up from the week-ago $400-$410/st FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market edged up to $430-$455/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up $15/st at the low end of the range, with the latest reference price from IOC reported at $440/st FOB Ohio and Illinois River terminals.

AdvanSix reported that it is increasing the price of granular ammonium sulfate to $420/st FOB Hopewell, Va., effective Oct. 16. The new price reflects an $85/st increase from the company’s last posting on Sept. 20.

Western Cornbelt:

The ammonium sulfate market remained at $435-$445/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Paul market pegged in the $450-$460/st FOB range at midweek.

California:

The California ammonium sulfate market was quoted at $430-$450/st FOB and $470-$490/st DEL, up $50/st or more from last report, depending on grade and location.

Pacific Northwest:

Ammonium sulfate pricing in the Pacific Northwest had reportedly firmed to $440-$460/st FOB or DEL for standard grade and up to $470-$490/st FOB or DEL for granular, up some $60-$90/st from last report.

Western Canada:

The ammonium sulfate market in Western Canada was quoted in a broad range at C$615-$670/mt DEL, depending on location, grade, and availability, with most new quotes for granular tons falling in the C$650-$670/mt DEL range for limited inventories.

China:

Supply has been dwindling in China against steady demand from Southeast Asia and Brazil. While ammonium sulfate was not on the list of fertilizers facing export restrictions, sources said exports of the product could still be hampered by the new rules. Sources said they expect Brazil to be hit harder.

Sources said most amsul exports from China to Brazil have been in vessels of 25,000 mt or greater to keep shipping costs down. In most cases, the amsul is part of shipments of other products such as phosphates, urea, or NPKs. With the new limitations on exports of 29 different fertilizers from China, however, the amsul cargoes may not be able to find vessels to be included in the hold. Traders said organizing enough sources of only amsul to fill a 25,000 mt vessel is nearly impossible. One trader said sales to distant locations, such as Brazil, may end up using containers instead of bulk loadings.

Southeast Asian buyers, however, prefer smaller shipments of 5,000-10,000 mt, which can be more easily arranged. Sources reported a deal of 10,000 mt of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate to a Southeast Asian buyer in the mid-$310s/mt CFR. With an estimated freight rate of $50/mt, sources said that pushed the netback to China in the mid-$260s/mt FOB.

Sources said all week that offers in the $250s/mt FOB were circulating, but were being rejected. The reported deal with a netback in the $260s/mt FOB, said one trader, sounds plausible, but may be a bit higher than where the market should be. He pegged the market in the $250s/mt FOB.

Brazil:

Buyers are still reeling from the dramatic increase in ammonium sulfate prices last week, to $395-$400/mt CFR into Paranagua. With possible limitations on how many tons can economically be shipped out of China, sources expect to see higher prices.

At first, Brazilian buyers seemed relieved that amsul was not on the Chinese government list of fertilizers facing export limitations. However, the realization that the cargoes from China that usually accompany amsul loads may no longer occur has once again raised concerns.

The price jump into the $250s/mt FOB in China for caprolactam grade amsul could raise more pricing concerns in Brazil.Rondonopolis remains at $500/mt FOB ex-warehouse as buyers and sellers take a break from the market.

Turkey:

January-August 2021 imports of ammonium sulfate in Turkey were up 124 percent, to 608,000 mt from 271,000 mt during the same period last year, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main supplier this year was China with 328,000 mt.August 2021 imports were reported at 29,000 mt. There was no data for August 2020.

DAP/MAP

Brazil, California, Central Florida, China, DAP/MAP, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Russia, U.S. Exports, U.S. Gulf, Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Central Florida:

DAP loaded to trucks from Central Florida was reported firming to $685/st FOB, rising from $665/st FOB in the prior report. “Local market adjustments” saw the week’s posted MAP price soften $5/st to $690/st FOB, falling from $695/st FOB in the prior report.

Truck-loaded MAP at North Florida was noted lifting to $750/st FOB, a $30/st increase from $720/st FOB in the prior report.

U.S. Gulf:

NOLA barge phosphate pricing moved sideways for the week. Nearby DAP barges were generally quoted changing hands at a $675/st FOB low, increasing from the week-ago $660/st FOB as domestic producers shifted loading windows into a later-Q4 range.

Domestically produced DAP loading from upriver warehouses continued to sell at a $660/st FOB NOLA netback, sources confirmed, with shipping slated for now through December. Most saw NOLA DAP topping out at $680-$685/st FOB, dipping from the week-ago $690/st FOB high. Trading rumored at $690-$695/st FOB remained unconfirmed on Oct. 14.

Nearby lows for MAP barges at NOLA were steady at the week-ago $765/st FOB, while 30-day highs were reported topping out around $780/st FOB, softening from the prior week’s $785/st FOB ceiling.

The prompt NOLA DAP barge market was reported moving to a $675-$685/st FOB range for the week, a shift from the previous week’s $660-$690/st FOB. MAP barges were quoted at $765-$780/st FOB, softening from the week-ago $765-$785/st FOB.

U.S. Exports:

Last-done spot export continued to be heard at $660/mt FOB for DAP, although sources agreed that indications had moved higher if a new transaction were to conclude today. MAP exports were last quoted at $685/mt FOB.

Eastern Cornbelt:

DAP pricing remained at $725-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high reported at Ottawa, Ill. The Cincinnati market was pegged in the $735-$740/st FOB range at midweek. MAP was steady at $790-$810/st FOB in the region, with the Cincinnati market quoted at the $805/st FOB level.

In the Southeast, Nutrien reported that its MAP price FOB Aurora, N.C., and White Springs, Fla., had firmed to $750/st FOB, up $30/st from the last posting, with limited supply at both locations.

Western Cornbelt:

DAP pricing was steady $730-$750/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis. The MAP market was pegged at $790-$810/st FOB in the region.

California:

MAP pricing jumped to $890-$900/st rail-DEL or FOB California warehouses during the week, up some $40/st from the prior week and roughly $100/st higher than late September levels.

Pacific Northwest:

MAP pricing in the region was quoted at $890/st FOB Aurora or DEL in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Montana, up a full $115/st or more since late September.

Western Canada:

New MAP offers in Western Canada fell in the C$1,140-$1,200/mt FOB or DEL range, depending on location and time of the week, up roughly C$100/mt from last report.

China:

All phosphate fertilizers are affected by the new export rules. Effective Oct. 15, any product that has not cleared customs will not be allowed to be exported.

Sources said the rules seem to be flexible enough to allow some exports from major suppliers such as YUC, but only for long-term contracted tons. The government actions are apparently intended to block any spot deals until prices come down and domestic inventory comes up.

One international trader said even the long-term contracted tons may face a problem, however. Under one reading to the nebulous rules, unless there is a fixed price on the tonnage to be exported, the local officials who must sign off on the sales might withhold their permission.

The new rules have effectively shut down any talk of DAP or MAP exports from China, leaving nothing for traders to discuss.

India:

The Indian government increased the amount of money available for subsidies by $3.8 billion. The money will be used to support nitrogen and phosphate products.The funds will allow for a higher subsidy for DAP and MAP. However, one international trader pointed out that even the proposed increase of about $116/mt for DAP is too little, too late.

The last public price paid by India for DAP was reported at $680/mt CFR, against a maximum retail price of $570/mt. The increased subsidy just barely matches current pricing ideas.

Even as the government announced the increase in subsidies, the Russian news service TASS reported that a memorandum of understanding was signed between the Indian and Russian governments that would provide for more Russian DAP being sent to India.

International traders questioned whether anything would come from this agreement. Sources reported rumors that the base price the Russians were looking for was about $700/mt FOB. This level would be dramatically higher than the current imported price for India.

Even if the Russians come down in price to a level that is more acceptable to the Indian buyers, sources said the producers would not be able to supply as much as is being lost from the Chinese export limitations. At the same time, Russian producers are also facing pressure from their own government to first ensure a plentiful supply of DAP for the domestic market.

Russia:

January-August 2021 DAP exports were down 21 percent, according to Trade Data Monitor, to 834,000 mt from the 1.05 million mt exported during the same period last year.August 2021 DAP exports were down 77 percent, to 27,000 mt from the August 2020 total of 120,000 mt.

Russian MAP exports for January-August 2021 were up 11 percent, to 1.7 million mt from 1.6 million mt during the same period last year. August 2021 MAP exports of 219,000 mt were down less than 1 percent from August 2020 exports of 221,000 mt.

The overall DAP and MAP exports for 2021 in the first eight months of the year were down 1.7 percent, to 2.58 million mt. August 2021 DAP and MAP exports were down 28 percent, to 247,000 mt from 341,000 mt in August 2020.

Brazil:

Deals for MAP were reportedly non-existent as buyers and sellers looked to absorb the meaning of China’s decision to limit exports.

Sources reported some talk at $800-$850/mt CFR for Paranagua, but with nothing sealed. The price did move slightly down on the upper end, creating a new range of $740-$750/mt CFR.

Inland buyers showed a more aggressive nature, with deals reported at $900-$978/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The new price showed a slight increase over the previous week, but not dramatically so, said one source.

TSP

Iran, Market Watch, Triple Superphosphate, U.S. Gulf, Western Cornbelt

U.S. Gulf:

With zero barges reported available at NOLA, TSP price ideas were generally reported in the $610-$620/st FOB range, with most expectations trending toward the top of the spread.

Western Cornbelt:

The TSP market remained at $665-$675/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt at mid-month.

Iran:

Agricultural Support Services Co. (ASSC) closes a tender for the supply of 4 x 40,000 mt lots of granular TSP on Oct. 16 (GM Oct. 8, p. 12).

Phosphoric Acid

California, Eastern Cornbelt, India, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Phosphoric Acid, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Phos acid prices for October remained at $14.90/unit rail-DEL in Illinois and Wisconsin, and $15.05/unit rail-DEL in Ohio, up $1.55/unit from September.

Western Cornbelt:

Phos acid pricing for October was steady at $14.80/unit rail-DEL in Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri.

California:

Phos acid prices in California were quoted at $15.05/unit rail-DEL for October, up $1.30/unit from September pricing, with MGA referenced at the $15.25/unit level FOB Lathrop.

Pacific Northwest:

Thephos acid market firmed to $14.55/unit FOB Pocatello, Idaho, and $15.05/unit rail-DEL in the Pacific Northwest on Oct. 1, up $1.30/unit from September.

India:

Sources said talks with OCP/Morocco for third-quarter prices now show indications of a much higher price increase than originally expected.

Last month, sources said the price would be around $1,100-$1,200/mt CFR. Now, said sources, the talks are focusing on $1,300-$1,400/mt CFR. The jump came as European prices reportedly moved up to $1,300/mt CFR.

The higher price for phos acid will continue to make it harder for Indian DAP producers to turn out product at rates lower than the current international market.

Ammonium Polyphosphate

Ammonium Polyphosphate, California, Eastern Cornbelt, Market Watch, Pacific N.W., Western Canada, Western Cornbelt

Eastern Cornbelt:

Sources continued to report no current prices for 10-34-0 in the Eastern Cornbelt.

Western Cornbelt:

No current 10-34-0 prices were confirmed in the Western Cornbelt at mid-month.

California:

The10-34-0 market was quoted at $659-$664/st FOB in California, up $56/st from September. 11-37-0 pricing was pegged in the $732-$737/st FOB range for October tons, reflecting a $60/st increase since September.

Pacific Northwest:

The 10-34-0 market strengthened to $665/st FOB Hedges, Wash., on Oct. 1, up from $609/st FOB in September. 11-37-0 pricing at Hedges moved up as well, to $719/st FOB, up from $659/st FOB in September, with delivered pricing in Idaho and Utah firming to $694/st.

Western Canada:

No current prices were confirmed for 10-34-0 in Western Canada at mid-month.